Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[sunnyday]

Because of your accuracy with Barry, I BELIEVE!

[canetracker]

BB: Regardless of whether this verifies exactly when you say or not, I enjoy and respect your posts. You show that you are studying the elements, you back up your predictions with evidence and you incorporate a gut instict. I have been studying as well and do feel that mid June will show us some type of tropic event.
However, I should post this disclaimer with my predictions: I have no college meteorology background and am just someone who loves watching the tropics...so take my predictions for what they are worth.

[Bellarose]

BB: Regardless of whether this verifies exactly when you say or not, I enjoy and respect your posts. You show that you are studying the elements, you back up your predictions with evidence and you incorporate a gut instict. I have been studying as well and do feel that mid June will show us some type of tropic event.
However, I should post this disclaimer with my predictions: I have no college meteorology background and am just someone who loves watching the tropics...so take my predictions for what they are worth.

Extremely well said and I second that!

Bella

[bubbamills]

Bastardi mentioned this in his daily findings and cited the Canadian Model. Could the Berwick Model be a Bastardi twist?

[Berwick Bay]

No Bubba its not. I don't have access to Accuweather (don't pay for it) and don't go looking for other prognostications. I'm very happy with my own. As for my computer, I have dial-up. The few times in the past when I did try to look at model loops posted by others, I found that I didn't have the patience (dial-up). Also, sometimes I confess, I can't read them and don't understand them. As for this present forecast of mine, I was up very late last night. I posted the forecast for the Gulf in the wee hours of the morning (around 2AM or 3 AM). I try to give specificity with my forecast. I called for development (not just likely development) at a specific point 24N and 92 W within a certain time frame (June 13-June 16). I said that if my forecast does bear out, I would look for hurricane formation, not just tropical storm. I'm interested that you mention Bastardi. Can you please inform me and the board when and where Bastardi made this same type of forecast that I did? I'd really be interested. You mentioned the Canadian Model. I don't read it. Did it make pretty much the same forecast (with specificity) that I did? When did it show this? Since this is the second time you have implied that I copy off Bastardi, can you please produce some facts to back that up? Hey you know what? From what I hear about Bastardi's lack of success, maybe he's reading my forecast lol.

[WindRunner]

Actually, the Canadian doesn't forecast that far out, or at least it isn't available to the general puclic.

[secretforecaster]

Bastardi mentioned this in his daily findings and cited the Canadian Model. Could the Berwick Model be a Bastardi twist?

Oh not these accusations again!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Bastardi mentioned this in his daily findings and cited the Canadian Model. Could the Berwick Model be a Bastardi twist?

What I find funny is the fact that I just checked over Bastardi's comments for yesterday (Monday 6/4) and could not find him mention this ANYWHERE. Are you sure you are talking about Bastardi? Or was it someone else at Accuweather who said this?

[Starburst]

Bastardi mentioned this in his daily findings and cited the Canadian Model. Could the Berwick Model be a Bastardi twist?

What I find funny is the fact that I just checked over Bastardi's comments for yesterday (Monday 6/4) and could not find him mention this ANYWHERE. Are you sure you are talking about Bastardi? Or was it someone else at Accuweather who said this?

I have also looked on Accuweather from the 1st day of June thru today in all the blogs, forecasts from all the Met's, and Bastardi column and forecast, and cannot find one mention of this anywhere. Nothing Berwick Bay has forecasted is mentioned anywhere on Accuweather that I can find.

*****Congrats Berwick Good Call On Barry!!!! *******

[boca]

Therew is a blow up of thunderstorms off the west coast of the Yucatan pretty much what Berwick predicted but a week earlier. I think he can turn these predictions into a business. Ha Ha. Here's the satelite.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[stormraider]

Therew is a blow up of thunderstorms off the west coast of the Yucatan pretty much what Berwick predicted but a week earlier. I think he can turn these predictions into a business. Ha Ha. Here's the satelite.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

Umm, isn't there always blow-ups down there at this time?

[HouTXmetro]

Well look like he is right about the moisture envelope edging into the BOC. (Check)

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes things are perhaps happening a little on the early side. Just a little, I think. After making my forecast early on June 4th, I soon regretted that I had not used a 7-10 day time frame (like last time) instead of saying 9-12 days. But I'll let the forecast stand as stated. If I had to narrow it, I would say that the short end of the period (9-days) from original forecast may be more likely (About June 13th). Anyway, I still believe that the key is next week, not this week. Yes storms will gather over the Yucutan this week, but I believe that conditions in the Gulf will not become acceptable for storm development until next week(IMHO). Also, a reminder, my forecast continues to be for development in the West-Central Gulf, not the Bay of Campeche. My forecast area for final upgrade to cyclone is about 100-150 miles NORTHWEST of the NW tip of the Yucutan.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, always blowing up this time of year down there....Cuz my brother (KFDM) said so!!!!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

would that be mr. greg

[southerngale]

would that be mr. greg

No. His brother is KFDM Meteorologist on here. Greg is greg_kfdm_tv on here. He may not have realized there were two usernames with KFDM in them when he didn't give the complete name.

[Frank2]

Someone here mentioned the current strong shear, which reminds me - didn't I hear something about two months ago (perhaps on TWC or CNN) that mentioned the theory of Global Warming actually increasing shear, unrelated to El Nino conditions...

If that's true, then, the shear we see now might continue at least to some increased degree, despite the dissipation of the El Nino current...

[KWT]

Frank, shear is below average overall for the Atlantic region, sure its still high in places, but then again it is only early June!!!

[Frank2]

True, but, that was an interesting theory heard in the news about two months ago...

[Frank2]

...down here in South Florida, being hopeful is a good thing when it comes to hurricane season...