You can see very easy the clouds forming a V indicating a good signature.However it doesn't mean it will develop but for sure apart from the 93L wave,it's a good wave.But the hostil enviroment in the tropical atlantic will prevent it from going more strong.Here in Puerto Rico the NWS expects plenty of rain as it passes by next wednesday.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W.
8:05 AM Discussion from TPC.
San Juan AFD:
FXCA62 TJSJ 160950
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SAT JUN 16 2007
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
INTERRUPTED BY A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST...CROSSING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SUNDAY MORNING AND PUERTO RICO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FROM FLORIDA TO WESTERN AFRICA
BY MONDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TO NEAR 20 NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26 NORTH. ANOTHER HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO BEGINNING WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST...REBUILDS AND DRIFTS BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND HOLDING FLOW SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD AFTER THE WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY NEAR ONE
AND ONE HALF INCHES AS DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST CONTINUES ONE MORE
DAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE WORST OF THE HAZE IS
OVER...EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL DUST TO REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW.
ON SUNDAY...SOME MOISTURE RETURNS...AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BUT THE REALLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR PUERTO RICO. THE GFS
SHOWS HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER OF OVER 2.3 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE GFS WINDS IN THE LAYER FROM 1000-850 MB PEAK ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z AT 30 KNOTS OVER SAINT THOMAS AND 35 KNOTS OVER SAINT CROIX
WITH ABRUPT TURNING OVER THE 12 HOURS CENTERED ON THAT TIME FROM
100 DEGREES TO 140 DEGREES. WINDS IN THIS LAYER OVER PUERTO RICO
PEAK AT 40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AT 06Z. WINDS AT 850 MB ONLY ARE
SIMILAR EXCEPT THAT THEY PEAK OVER ARECIBO AT 50 KNOTS THURSDAY AT
06Z IN THE 00Z/16 RUN OF THE GFS. THESE WINDS ARE REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE IN THE MODEL AS WELL...WITH A MAXIMUM WIND OF 34 KNOTS
OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE
THIS IS STILL IN DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND DUE TO THE MODEL
PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE WIND SPEEDS AND THE WAVE INTENSITY IN
GENERAL...THE WINDS WERE LOWERED BY 7 KNOTS IN THE HIGHER FORECAST
AREAS DURING THE WAVE APPROACH AND PASSAGE.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR 33 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...IS
MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS AND IT HAS A CLASSICAL INVERTED V SHAPE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED IF IT CAN HOLD
TOGETHER SO WELL DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
WHICH SO FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY HOSTILE TO GOOD WAVES COMING OFF OF
AFRICA. ALSO THE GFS SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER IT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS ALSO SUSPECT. THEREFORE WILL MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AT 70 PERCENT OR
LESS WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF THE MODEL FORECAST. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...WILL ENHANCE OR DIMINISH THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE WAVE CONTINUES UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
