Heavy Storms Off Lower Texas Coast

[Berwick Bay]

Storms have moved off the mainland and are now located in the western Gulf over the Padre Island coastal waters of Texas. Upper level conditions are favorable with upper level High over the Western Gulf extending from a center back over the state of New Mexico and then out into the Gulf to about 89W according to the National Hurricane Center. Things can change quickly, and I think this weather along the lower Texas Coast should be watched. Here's the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

i say there could be a chance if the
area persists of texas coast for some
tropical development as long as
upper level conditions are favorable

we are getting closer to the time of
year when stuff can pop
in the GOM.

[Jagno]

I too noticed this earlier. Looks to be moving N along the coast. Geesh, we certainly don't need any more rain but I'll take this over a hurricane any day.

[Berwick Bay]

Jagno, I know how you feel about beneficial tropical rains. But I want you to promise me that you'll stay abreast of this weather off the Texas Coast. The whole mass of it looks to be moving West right now (not north along the coast). In particular I would take a look at the area just coming off the Rio Grande Valley (at the Tex-Mex Border). If, and its a big if, this system begins to get its act together, I think this will be the area to watch. Of course it could be nothing (just came off the coast this morning), but conditions are on the positive side for development, and I think those of us in the Western Gulf should keep an eye on it. Talk to you later.

[Ptarmigan]

Those storms were from yesterday that formed in South Texas. Should keep an eye on them as possible rainmakers.

[Air Force Met]

Storms have moved off the mainland and are now located in the western Gulf over the Padre Island coastal waters of Texas. Upper level conditions are favorable with upper level High over the Western Gulf extending from a center back over the state of New Mexico and then out into the Gulf to about 89W according to the National Hurricane Center. Things can change quickly, and I think this weather along the lower Texas Coast should be watched. Here's the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html" target="_blank" target="_blank

I have to disagree. Upper level winds are currently very unfavorable in that area and will continue to be so for the next several days.

The shower activity is being caused by a trof of low pressure in the upper atmosphere between two upper highs. There is nothing at the sfc to speak of but winds over brownsville are 25-35 kts form the west. I don't see anything coming out of this except a lot of rain.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_006l.gif

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

[deltadog03]

Yup, thats from a trof split! Has been doing that all spring long. I would asume that it will continue!

[Jagno]

BB; I try to check here every day during Hurricane Season just to get that first heads up should anything develop that I need to be concerned about. That's why I love this place.

[Berwick Bay]

I thought that you did, Jagno. Its just that sometimes I don't see you post for a period of several days. Well Air Force has given me the word that conditions aren't favorable after all. I had been reading about upper level conditions basically being stable in the Gulf, with upper level high in the West Gulf--then a trough boundary near the Yucutan, and upper level high east of that. But as Air Force reported the NHC now mentions a "surface trough" along the Texas Coast. Those elongated features don't usually consolidate into tropical systems. Here's the NHC Discussion.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN WEST
TEXAS IS PRODUCING ONSHORE FLOW W OF THE HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS.

My only question would be whether or not condtions might be a little more favorable further south off the upper Mexican Coast??

[pojo]

Our wx officers aren't overly concerned about the moisture on the texas coast... Rain maker.

[Air Force Met]

But as Air Force reported the NHC now mentions a "surface trough" along the Texas Coast. Those elongated features don't usually consolidate into tropical systems. Here's the NHC Discussion.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN WEST
TEXAS IS PRODUCING ONSHORE FLOW W OF THE HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS.

My only question would be whether or not condtions might be a little more favorable further south off the upper Mexican Coast??

Hey BB...that's not what they said. They said "WEST TEXAS"...not along the Texas coast. The sfc trof out west (west Tx...near the Big Bend) is producing a tightened gradient onshore flow b/w it and the high to its east.

Yes...Conditions are a little more favorable to the south. That is where the upper high is. Most of the GOM is in anticyclonic flow...the problem is it is on the north side of the anticyclone...bumping up against the subtropical jet...and that means 20 knots or more of westerly winds. That only gets worse as we go through time. It will be 50 kts off the TX coast in a couple of days.

Conditions in the BoC are good for development...but if something was to develop it would be a weak TS and move into Mexico. If it tried to move to the north...it would be decapitated.

[Berwick Bay]

Concentration of storms has gradually moved south. Yesterday afternoon it was over the mouth of the Rio Grande. As of this morning its in Northern Mexico and extending somewhat into the coastal waters of the Gulf.

[tailgater]

I think I see a Cut-off Low in the upper levels forming over SE Texas and SW La. moving eastward. If that pans out Fla should get some much needed rain in the next couple of days as ULL pulls moisture northward. I'm no forecaster though, just looks like a good set up for them. Thoughts?