Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project

[MiamiensisWx]

Hi, everyone. I have some questions for clarification with respect to the project's progress. Lately, they appear to be behind the approximate schedule. In addition, the first section (1851 to 1885) was completed in 2001, while the other sections (1886 to 1910 and 1911 through 1914) were quickly submitted to the NHC in 2004 and 2005. The changes were rapidly incorporated into the best track database.

The HURDAT reanalysis project has completed their revisions of the best track database from 1851 to 1914, and the team has finished a preliminary reanalysis of the period from 1915 to 1930. The data was submitted by the end of 2005, but the changes have not been approved for the database. What's the latest news? Could a funding shortage hamper the project?

The revisions for the 20th Century have been projected to be completed in 2008, but the latest revisions have not been approved during the past two years.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, they're running behind. Don't know particularly why, other than perhaps the 2005 season. Chris Landsea is one of the main driving forces behind it, and I'm sure the whole 2005 hurricane season thingy was a bit more important than the reanalysis project. So let's just say it's a few years out . . . especially the finishing part. They haven't even started the 1950s yet.

[HurricaneBill]

Maybe the 2005 season offered a lot more information on hurricanes that caused the reanalysis project to be put on hold or something. Especially with the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or storms like Epsilon and Vince.

[Derek Ortt]

Chris Landsea takes shifts as a hurricane specialist occasionally, which may be slowing up the project

[terstorm1012]

I've been waiting for the 1938 storm reanalysis myself.

[Derek Ortt]

already been done and the results were presented at the 2006 AMS conference in Monterrey

[StormWarning1]

I've been waiting for the 1938 storm reanalysis myself.

Here is a link to the reanalysis of the 1938 Hurricane as well as 11 other storms including 3 other New England storms.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf" target="_blank" target="_blank

The 'SEA ISLE 1893' was first reanalyzed as a cat 3, here, the author maintains it was a cat 2, due to a larger RMW than originally thought.

1957 Hurricane Audrey is reanalyzed as a cat 1 at landfall.

[Normandy]

Wow, Audrey a 1? Interesting...that would mean the benchmark storm for Cameron before Rita was "only" a Cat 1. Why was the surge so signficant? Large area of cat1 winds?

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Normandy, we discussed this point in an Audrey thread a couple of days ago. Derek speculated just that. The large windfield gave rise to the tremendous surge felt across the entire state of La. However, my own feeling is that this was in fact a major hurricane in the North Central Gulf, which like quite a few others in recent years, weakened in the hours before landfall(still retaining the integrity of its major surge). When I mentioned this to Derek, he was open to that idea as a possibility.

[Cyclone1]

I, in my ametuer opinion, believe Audrey was a category four like best track shows, but just fell apart in the hours prior to landfall. It's not the only recorded case of such an occurence, like what happened with Buelah 10 years later. Best track shows a category 5 landfall in Texas, but historical records show it was most likely a category 1-3 in reality. Ethel is another great example, though I don't think it was anything stronger than a category two.

[terstorm1012]

THANKS for that link about the '38 storm, and the surprise about Audrey!