Ex Invest 95L

[Aric Dunn]

[Trader Ron]

there is nothing there to watch.

Enjoy the week-end. Spend some time with your friends. Head to the links as if you are watching this system, it's going to be a long and painful week-end

Finally, sanity has prevailed. Like i said yesterday. What's all the hullabloo about?

B.T.W. Just another great day in paradise.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I do think this season will be above normal around 16 named storms. But feel we won't get another one intill early August...Then I expect a pretty good cape verde and central Atlatnic season. Maybe just maybe we could get a weak one forming in the caribbean or gulf before then. We will see...The western Atlantic won't open up intill mid August at least.

[Aric Dunn]

I do think this season will be above normal around 16 named storms. But feel we won't get another one intill early August...Then I expect a pretty good cape verde and central Atlatnic season. Maybe just maybe we could get a weak one forming in the caribbean or gulf before then. We will see...The western Atlantic won't open up intill mid August at least.

why do you say that.. show me

[Trader Ron]

I do think this season will be above normal around 16 named storms. But feel we won't get another one intill early August...Then I expect a pretty good cape verde and central Atlatnic season. Maybe just maybe we could get a weak one forming in the caribbean or gulf before then. We will see...The western Atlantic won't open up intill mid August at least.

why do you say that.. show me

Show what? Matt's just stating his opinion how the season will play out.

[windstorm99]

The GFS along with a few other models are indeed indicateing a much favorable tropical atlantic in the next few weeks.If they are correct we should expect a big decline in windshear in most areas across the atlantic basin.Adrian

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong shear across the atlantic should prevent any immediate
development. Over the next several
weeks...shear will gradually reduce
and towards august shear will continue
to reduce...as in accordance with climatology.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif


Most of the Atlatnic is 5-10 knots above normal for the shear. Above NORMAL... Yes that could change in likely will,,,,but that will be mid July-late July before any big changes happen. Do I say we could not get a weak storm before August, sure. Who knows intill it happens. Just pointing it out.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif" target="_blank


Most of the Atlatnic is 5-10 knots above normal for the shear. Above NORMAL... Yes that could change in likely will,,,,but that will be mid July-late July before any big changes happen. Do I say we could not get a weak storm before August, sure. Who knows intill it happens. Just pointing it out.

but how do you know it will be mid or late july

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif" target="_blank


Most of the Atlatnic is 5-10 knots above normal for the shear. Above NORMAL... Yes that could change in likely will,,,,but that will be mid July-late July before any big changes happen. Do I say we could not get a weak storm before August, sure. Who knows intill it happens. Just pointing it out.

but how do you know it will be mid or late july

Thats when I expect the overall wind shear through out the Atlantic to reverse to below normal as we where in early June. I expect we could get a weak system by mid to late month....But no hurricanes intill early August. On the "norm" that is when the first hurricane normally forms. We will see, every season is different.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif" target="_blank


Most of the Atlatnic is 5-10 knots above normal for the shear. Above NORMAL... Yes that could change in likely will,,,,but that will be mid July-late July before any big changes happen. Do I say we could not get a weak storm before August, sure. Who knows intill it happens. Just pointing it out.

but how do you know it will be mid or late july

Thats when I expect the overall wind shear through out the Atlantic to reverse to below normal as we where in early June. I expect we could get a weak system by mid to late month....But no hurricanes intill early August. On the "norm" that is when the first hurricane normally forms. We will see, every season is different.

but how did you decide to on that forecast? what data told you that.. ?

[pojo]

btw i wouldn't want the NHC doing any reconaissance testing and depleting there funds which we all know are not infinite

NHC even scheduled for recon to investigate on sunday when they declared it an invest. They do not ever, ever, ever, declare hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions or invests "just for practice". If it is for practice, then they would say something to the effect of "this is a test". NHC professionals do not need to practice anything. They are the best of the best. They are the equivalent of the Navy Seals. I never said issuing this invest would harm the public. I said the NHC has a duty to protect the public. By issuing this invest, they are simply following their duty to do just that. They got all the practice they needed before being hired. These are the big boys doing what they do best.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters have separate finances than the USAF RES Hurricane Hunters... Yes, since the Fiscal Year ends right during the prime time (both are gov't organizations), funds play hard to get come September. Because of Crew Duty day and Crew rest, the NHC has to schedule INVESTs at least 24 hours in advance. This gives the crew the augmented amount of crew rest and the forecasters to look closely at the possible system. Even though we have an in house CARCAH, we still respect the decisions of the NHC and the CARCAH at the NHC. The NHC/TPC forecasters are phenomenal... they should be respected in what they do. It is a requirement that the forecasters there have at least a M.S. if not a Ph.D.

Shannon

[Nimbus]

Looks like the residual low surface pressure is on the west coast near Venice tonight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

The broad circulation is not kicking up much convection but with a 1013-1014 MB low back out over water POP should increase.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the residual low surface pressure is on the west coast near Venice tonight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1" target="_blank

The broad circulation is not kicking up much convection but with a 1013-1014 MB low back out over water POP should increase.

actually i have it near or possibly reforming just off shore the east coast from brevard to st lucie county.

[cpdaman]

the low appears to be nearing the toasty atlantic waters near jupiter florida

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

the low appears to be nearing the toasty atlantic waters near jupiter florida

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html" target="_blank

i agree .. its still hard to tell but it appears to either be exiting or reforming

[cycloneye]

A post has been reported on page 11.Let's refrain from arguments between members and concentrate on the theme on hand in this thread and that is invest 95L.

[Aric Dunn]

sounds good

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hopefully some rain can come out of this...right now heavy rain
across inland florida...

[Air Force Met]

So you guys are saying ameteurs on a forum need to be politically correct in every post they make by giving something a 5% chance of development instead of just saying it won't develop?

It seems as if the number rule here is that saying something definately will develop is OK, but if you dare to say something will NOT develop, you can expect to be treated the same as William Wallace was by the English

Excellent point. Some people on here let their desire to see something develop cloud their judgment...to the point of becoming defensive when someone suggests a non-development solution. We used to call it wish-casting...now we call it having an equal opinion (PC hits S2K).

It's like you are telling them their child can't sing or dance good. Momma gets all mad. All of us see it...well...except those of you who are defending your young.