Will we have recuratures at 60W for 2007

[boca]

Tropical Weather Watchers put out their forecast late May and said that we would have a trough out in the Central Atlantic that would recurve westward moving system from getting past 60w like in 2006. So far its July 2nd and troughs continue to pull off the east coast.Maybe they were on to something.I know patterns change and some patterns can lock in the whole summer. I like to hear some thoughts on this matter.

[windstorm99]

The overall trend the last 2 months has indeed looked similar to 2006 with very persistent trofiness of the eastcoast of the united states.I see this continueing through atleast the first half of july and indeed sometimes a pattern like this can stuck and remain in place for months at a time.

Overall i see a front parked almost over me right now and its what July 2nd i also see another front forecasted to come down sometime next weekend.Ive have heard the term backdoor front many times the past few months that the trend is obvious.Lets hope it continues.Adrian

[x-y-no]

Well, even if that pattern does set up, it's no guarantee.

With SSTs somewhat lower in the central Atlantic and warmer in the Caribbean, it's possible that many waves don't develop until they're at or near the islands, And in that case, there's a fair chance of the storm proceeding west with only a jog to the north, rather than a recurvature.

[windstorm99]

I would think if this pattern holds Joe b's forcast sounds reasonable with florida and the carolina's being at the greatest risk.

[wjs3]

Well, even if that pattern does set up, it's no guarantee.

With SSTs somewhat lower in the central Atlantic and warmer in the Caribbean, it's possible that many waves don't develop until they're at or near the islands, And in that case, there's a fair chance of the storm proceeding west with only a jog to the north, rather than a recurvature.

Y'know, that's an excellent point. Where the cyclone develops has a lot to do with what upper/steering patterns affect it, etc. Well said.

[MGC]

Its possible. The pattern has been blocked for some time now. I'm sure the folks in Texas and Oklahoma wish things would start moving. No telling when things change. The trend is your friend...MGC

[Cyclone1]

Well, even if that pattern does set up, it's no guarantee.

With SSTs somewhat lower in the central Atlantic and warmer in the Caribbean, it's possible that many waves don't develop until they're at or near the islands, And in that case, there's a fair chance of the storm proceeding west with only a jog to the north, rather than a recurvature.

Exactly right. And to answer the question... Yes. Every season will have recurvatures at 60W. That's natural. 2006 just had more because most of the storms formed too far out in the sea and moved too far north to break past that wall protecting the east coast.

[windstorm99]

This map from Joe b's outlook sounds reasonable to me if this trend persists.Thoughts?

Systems recurveing into florida and possibly the carolina's.

[Jam151]

wait who is tropical weather watchers? anyway I think this pattern favors recurvers so JB may be wrong cuz theres been a lot of troughs off the east coast. but we'll see.

[Cyclone1]

I live right under the "G"...

[windstorm99]

wait who is tropical weather watchers? anyway I think this pattern favors recurvers so JB may be wrong cuz theres been a lot of troughs off the east coast. but we'll see.

Systems that make it into the caribbean could very well recurve up into florida and the carolina's this season.SST'S are the warmest in that area.

A track similar to ernesto.

[boca]

wait who is tropical weather watchers? anyway I think this pattern favors recurvers so JB may be wrong cuz theres been a lot of troughs off the east coast. but we'll see.

Jam151 this is from Independent Weather.com
http://www.independentwx.com/2007

[Berwick Bay]

Thank you xy for this comment.

Well, even if that pattern does set up, it's no guarantee.

With SSTs somewhat lower in the central Atlantic and warmer in the Caribbean, it's possible that many waves don't develop until they're at or near the islands, And in that case, there's a fair chance of the storm proceeding west with only a jog to the north, rather than a recurvature.

I was thinking exactly that. As a matter of fact, we here in the north central to western gulf are more bothered by late developing storms in the Carribean. Sure, we watch Cape Verde systems like this one, but they have to trek thousands of miles to get to our neighborhood. So when Masters talked about Gulf Coast landfall chances being down with a trough off the East Coast, I took that with a grain of salt, thinking exactly what you posted.

[NDG]

Overall i see a front parked almost over me right now and its what July 2nd i also see another front forecasted to come down sometime next weekend.

Is not unusual to see back door cold fronts to come down along the east coast to S GA/N FL area in the summer, and where do you get it from that there's another cold front to come down for next weekend, both the GFS & the much trusted Euro indicate the Atlantic ridge build back in for next weekend.

[NDG]

This map from Joe b's outlook sounds reasonable to me if this trend persists.Thoughts?

Systems recurveing into florida and possibly the carolina's.

Joe B's map is not based on east coast troughs, it is based out of a weakness across the MS Valley or TX, w a Bermuda ridge in place.

[Steve]

Often in busier seasons you will have more than one set of "seasons" within a season. It's possible that storms will recurve east of 60 at some point. But in order to do that, you need to break down the ridging that's mostly been in place at the surface and hasn't even really begun to amplify or morph into the summer Atlantic ridge shape or position. There has been some upper troughiness, but that's generally been within higher pressure. Check out any of the surface loops on the experimental tropical genesis model runs at FSU or PSU (if they're back updating). For the better part of the last month the entire basin has been mostly surface high pressure (obviously not the whole thing, but....)

Anyway, I see very few similarities thus far with either 2005 or 2006. And I admittedly haven't been paying that much attention. But the orientation of the highs and what they're doing as they come off the US Atlantic coast are far different from what they were looking like in 2005 as they merged in with the existing high and bled in around the NC Coast (though also admittedly they are coming off at the +/- mid-Atlantic this year). Also, mean trough position is somewhat west of 95 this year or has appeared to be so far. We're not even 2 weeks into summer, so there's not telling how far that's going to further back up as the season progresses and pulses as the easterlies take over.

There's also been some weird (and southerly) bends in the subtropical jet that have been pretty far south when occasionally active. It's nothing like 2000 where the jet was down in the Caribbean at times.

Point is, I don't really see that much in common in the surface patterns between 2005, 2006 and 2007. I think they're all unique beasts. I don't believe we'll be seeing a mirror season of either one. It may be a compromise type season though.

One last thing, note the orientation of the highs coming off the CONUS (have been higher than wider) and the orientation of the main Atlantic ridging. At present almost all models depict a ENE-WSW orientation (Spain to Bahamas) with a weaker +/- tutt extending down to about 70/30. See UKMET 18z:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=000hr

Just some random observations. Don't count 2007 out. We are only getting a sense now of what the pattern might morph into toward late August and into September. It could go a couple of different ways (that's and and or btw).

Steve