NHC News Item

[tolakram]

C'mon. So he tried to shake things up a little (and for a good cause). Thats no sin.

In a leadership position it most certainly is. Walk quietly and carry a big stick. He instantly turned this thing political, or at least it seemed that way, when he made fun of the NOAA budget. As a leader you have to stay constructive. The forecasters disagree with the importance of quicksat, so what cause is he fighting for, theirs or his? Did he ask them for their opinion first?

I assumed he had their backing, I think most here did, and now we see he didn't, so what was he doing?

[x-y-no]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but it was wrong for him to discuss issues in the paper.

You stay professional and private. If something leaks so be it, but you don't go public with accusations like he did. That shows more of an ego than anything else and I totally understand why he's lost the confidence of some of the forecasters.

Even if he did go public he could have done it in a calm concerned manner, not in the provocative way he did it. He has no business heading anything IMO.

Hmmm ... so do you level the same criticism at Franklin, Pasch, Knabb and Avila? After all, they all chose to go public as well.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think what they are doing to Proenza is wrong
If the bosses are really mature bosses...they should
be able to handle some corrective advice/criticism from
Proenza...

[Aric Dunn]

i wonder if .. they are able to get rid of him. (which after meeting him and talking to him a few times i cant imagine why they would want to he seems very nice).

that they would temporarily bring back Mr. Mayfield...till they find someone new??

[Berwick Bay]

A new man is often given latitude to come in and put his stamp on the way he wants an organization to run. But not here. This is a fearful and cowardly group. And for these forecasters to turn on Proenza this quickly, well, I've lost all respect for them too. They can join the "brown nose" hall of shame. The whole nature of this organization is to never show weakness or admit errors, and along with an entrenched bureauocracy, it has now shown itself to be less interested in doing the right thing and more in its own self serving interests. How can anyone sit here and think that Proenza's statements are worthy of dismissal? No one thought that to be the case at the time they were made. Recent events are more instructive of the mind set of the "boys at the top" than of anything that Proenza supposedly did wrong. They'll fabricate any charge now to get rid of him, and they'll pressure the forecasters to go along in order to add legitimacy to their position. This is nothing new. It stinks to high heaven.

[cycloneye]

My biggest worrie is that the public's perception of NHC is that is a mess over there and comming the peak of the season,the public dont trust the forecasts.I really hope that they get to an accord and work hard as the season heats up by August.And when the season ends,then they can deal with all that mess.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A new man is often given latitude to come in and put his stamp on the way he wants an organization to run. But not here. This is a fearful and cowardly group. And for these forecasters to turn on Proenza this quickly, well, I've lost all respect for them too. They can join the "brown nose" hall of shame. The whole nature of this organization is to never show weakness or admit errors, and along with an entrenched bureauocracy, it has now shown itself to be less interested in doing the right thing and more in its own self serving interests. How can anyone sit here and think that Proenza's statements are worthy of dismissal? No one thought that to be the case at the time they were made. Recent events are more instructive of the mind set of the "boys at the top" than of anything that Proenza supposedly did wrong. They'll fabricate any charge now to get rid of him, and they'll pressure the forecasters to go along in order to add legitimacy to their position. This is nothing new. It stinks to high heaven.

I agree Berwick Bay. It is very sad to see this organization get swallowed
up by beaurocracy and it is very unjust how they lose faith
in Proenza just becuase Proenza criticized his bosses
and Proenza's criticism was well founded.

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Tampa, the whole episode reflects much more poorly on the NHC and NOAA than on anything Proenza did wrong. But it is instructive. Mealy-mouthed Mayfield was perfect for these guys. Bureauocracy, bureauocracy, bureauocracy.

[wxmann_91]

The problem with the relations between the lead forecasters and Proenza IMO is two-fold. Let me elaborate.

1) The media's portrayal of the situation and the public response. Think about it. The titles of these articles have been saying something about a "key satellite" failing. Way overblown and even myself was a little worried when I read that. Then I read later in the article that it was QS, which of course us wx gurus know, is not essentially important. But let's say GOES-12 was in danger. That would be a very legitimate problem and one which could really be bad. But does the public know the difference between QS and GOES? This leads to an effect on the public perception of the NHC. The public can't trust NHC now, believing that they are just going off limited data, which is simply not true. Avila hinted at this (I'm not sure which article I read it, but he explicitly stated he was concerned about the public's perception now that NHC can't forecast). The NHC forecasters, thus, desire a director, that will keep the public calm, not continue to stir up trouble as the season heats up.

2) Proenza's background. He was the leader of the SRH. Not usually anything that deals with hurricanes. With the exception of the 2004-05 onslaught, I doubt Proenza has had much experience with dealing with hurricanes. He's not a hurricane specialist. So it may be that the forecasters had doubts about him from the very beginning. After all, to say that QS could "reduce forecast accuracy by 16%", is clearly overblown, IMO. In addition, the difference between leader of the SRH and leader of the NHC is huge. Most people don't know about the SRH. Almost everybody knows about the NHC. How issues are handled in these two agencies, are quite different, since if you're the leader of the NHC, you should know that first of all, you represent the agency, and second of all, the media's going to be right behind you and listening. Suppose a Katrina was making landfall. Question the NHC forecasters ask: how would Proenza act, and how would the agency be represented? If it has been like what it has been lately, they could obviously want him ousted.

Also, given that the govt is increasingly critical of NHC, and the threat of placing funding away from RECON, and to QS, it would seem quite plausible that the NHC forecasters would want a more conservative director.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/159712.html



Four NHC forecasters want Proenza to go,Lixon Avila,Richard Pasch,James Franklin and Richard Knabb.This is sad to see this going on in that office while the peak of the season draws closer.

Frank,I edited the title to include this news of the four forecasters.

The title should be changed back to "Three NHC forecasters" since the article you link to clearly says that Lixion is still on the sidelines:

Forecaster Lixion Avila, who ignited the public phase of the rebellion Monday night in comments to The Miami Herald that were critical of Proenza, said Tuesday that he was not ready to join the call for Proenza's departure.

''I've lost a little bit of faith in him,'' Avila said, ``but I don't want to be part of his removal or support him to stay.''

[Berwick Bay]

Whats been worse for the "reputation" of the NHC. What Proenza said, or the way it has been handled? Is that why we have to have a random inspection of his offices now? What does that have to do with the sat issue? And the "get on the bosses bandwagon" comments by the forecasters, what does that have to do with the sat funding issues. These are obviously side items being cooked up to discredit the man, and put a positive face on a coming dismissal, something the public can swallow (Warren Commission).

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters just updated his blog....

A political storm engulfed the National Hurricane Center this week, with a majority of the senior hurricane forecasters calling for Bill Proenza's removal as director. The most visible issue revolved around the extraordinary focus on the aging QuikSCAT satellite. The public argument put forth by Mr. Proenza was that QuikSCAT data was so vital to hurricane track forecasting that without it, track forecast errors would increase significantly, leading to larger warning areas and increased costs for evacuation and emergency planning.

Complete blog here

[Scott_inVA]

Well, I was never a Mayfield fan and often ranted TPC/NHC policies here. My FWIW understanding was several forecasters felt Mayfield strongly supported the agency and its staff.

Like many, Proenza's appointment was most curious to me. A contact at HRD told me he is "damn user unfriendly and will make TPC look like Accu-weather".

I wonder if the season's first two named storms were precursors of what is to come. I can't find anyone willing to tell me how much of Proenza's hand was on the decision to name this year's 01 and 02 storms...tho I could argue against either/both of them.

I will tell you with certainty of fact that since his appointment, there are staff within TPC who do NOT want unrestricted access to computer model output. This seems to become evident shortly after his appointment but heck, could be a coincidence. I've discussed this recently with a FL OCM who has privately said the same thing. This is worrisome. Equally troubling to me are the apparent changes Proenza wants to make to warning criteria and dissemination.

Lastly, Proenza misrepresents the facts by saying Washington hacks just came down to grind his arse. From what I'm reliably told, a group of fairly important people within his office made that happen. If it is true that none of them interviewed for the job, were I Proenza, I'd shut my big mouth and ponder why I am getting squeezed from below and above...right at a time I need peak performance from everyone in my charge.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[miamicanes177]

Jeff Masters trashes the NHC director in his blog today. I think Masters is way out of line with the comments he has made. This is just a sample quote of horrible words directed towards this man:

Masters writes:
It greatly troubles me that the most visible and admired member of my profession has failed to use good science in his arguments for funding a replacement of the QuikSCAT satellite. The Director of the National Hurricane Center needs to be an able politician and good communicator, but being truthful with the science is a fundamental requirement of the job as well. Mr. Proenza has misrepresented the science on the QuikSCAT issue, and no longer has my support as director of the National Hurricane Center.

[crownweather]

I will tell you with certainty of fact that since his appointment, there are staff within TPC who do NOT want unrestricted access to computer model output. This seems to become evident shortly after his appointment but heck, could be a coincidence. I've discussed this recently with a FL OCM who has privately said the same thing. This is worrisome. Equally troubling to me are the apparent changes Proenza wants to make to warning criteria and dissemination.

Meaning what Scott?? Do some of the staff within TPC want to shut off access to NHC hurricane model tracks while Proenza wants to make them public? How unrestricted would the model access be, if it is approved? Am a little curious and interested about this particular "controversy".

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[HURRICANELONNY]

I SAY MR. PROENZA FOR PRESIDENT!
AND FIRE THE USELESS STAFF!

[miamicanes177]

And on June 18, 2007 Masters wrote in his blog, "Bravo to Mr. Proenza for speaking out on this important issue!"

And on June 23, 2007 Masters wrote in his blog, "Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting."

You know what people say though...everyone has a price. Even Jeff Masters. I'm not sure what is going on but something is fishy.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I SAY MR. PROENZA FOR PRESIDENT!
AND FIRE THE USELESS STAFF!

LOL!!!!
Proenza for President!!!!!!!

[Scott_inVA]

Jeff Masters trashes the NHC director in his blog today. I think Masters is way out of line with the comments he has made. This is just a sample quote of horrible words directed towards this man:

I haven't read Jeff's blog but he seems to say the same as do I. Jeff does not appear to be trashing anyone although he is stating that which is evident from forecasters at TPC/NHC.

I did forecasting in commercial broadcasting for many years and what Jeff (and Dr. Avila) has said is accurate: QS is infinitesimally unimportant for accurate TC forecasting close to TPC's area of responsibility. I'm in my 11th year of producing hurricane models and can't think of a time I used QS for anything more than curiosity when a TC is approaching land...not once. It simply is a capricious argument on Proenza's part.

As several forecasters have publicly said, recon is critical...QS is not. Does anyone recall the post-Katrina fallout because a flight was canceled as the storm approached Florida...and then stunned many people by jogging SW over land? I do. 2005 was a crippling money year and were it to happen again I damn sure don't want that budget going into a satellite that does nothing to protect people as a TC makes landfall.

Proenza sits in the most important "weather chair" in the US. Part of his job is to build public confidence for his agency as well as be the confident and calming voice of the Hurricane Center. It is clear he can do neither and therefore should be removed before an already skeptical public loses more confidence in the NHC.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Scott_inVA]

I will tell you with certainty of fact that since his appointment, there are staff within TPC who do NOT want unrestricted access to computer model output. This seems to become evident shortly after his appointment but heck, could be a coincidence. I've discussed this recently with a FL OCM who has privately said the same thing. This is worrisome. Equally troubling to me are the apparent changes Proenza wants to make to warning criteria and dissemination.

Meaning what Scott?? Do some of the staff within TPC want to shut off access to NHC hurricane model tracks while Proenza wants to make them public? How unrestricted would the model access be, if it is approved? Am a little curious and interested about this particular "controversy".

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

Rob,

The opposite is what I have been told.

While NHC was furious/embarrassed over the hammering they took from Charley '04, they haven't appeared desirous of restricting NOAA's public release of modeling data. Recall several OCMs in 2004 were on-air telling Floridians totally different information than NHC...these OCMs relied on models and didn't wait when it became apparent Charley was bombing out and turning.

I've tried to get information about modeling data this year but my sense is there are many staff (as opposed to forecasters) within TPC who are in Proenza's camp. I'm connecting the dots but do want to be fair and state I have no evidence anyone at TPC is "hiding" models... however I've seen and heard enough to cause concern.

Scott