Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[windstorm99]

[Cyclone1]

Well, it can't be that bad. TCFA is still up.

[MGC]

The dry air to its north is killing this thing. Chances are decreasing by the hour....but you never know things can change quickly....MGC

[wzrgirl1]

Does anyone have a picture of the current model tracks?

[skysummit]

Book mark this page, and change the number for each storm...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

[wzrgirl1]

Book mark this page, and change the number for each storm...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

awesome thanks sky!!!!!

[Nimbus]

This system will be fine... We'll see some flare up tonight and then again tomorrow. It's not going to just die off...

There is more mid level moisture west of 50W, but as has been the story all along there is only enough moisture to keep a minimal circulation going thus far.

WXman57 mentioned shear in the forecast once this gets into the Caribbean. Hopefully that will shred whatever remains. I'm still not confident about the shear forecast that far out.

Usually the heaviest shear is just north of the South American coast this time of year. If this thing finds some moisture, spins up and heads for the big islands you get a completely different scenario. I'm sure the NHC would be better off waiting with this thing.

[WindRunner]

Well, it can't be that bad. TCFA is still up.

TCFA only gets updated once per 24 hours. The end of the previous message had the standard line about the update/upgrade/cancel coming before (it's usually at) tonight at 00z, so don't expect to see any change to that message much before then.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 041816
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1816 UTC WED JUL 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070704 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070704 1800 070705 0600 070705 1800 070706 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 44.1W 11.0N 46.7W 11.5N 49.3W 12.0N 51.8W
BAMD 10.8N 44.1W 11.1N 46.5W 11.4N 48.9W 11.7N 51.2W
BAMM 10.8N 44.1W 11.1N 46.4W 11.5N 49.0W 11.9N 51.6W
LBAR 10.8N 44.1W 11.0N 46.7W 11.6N 50.0W 12.3N 53.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070706 1800 070707 1800 070708 1800 070709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 54.3W 13.7N 59.7W 15.7N 65.9W 18.2N 72.7W
BAMD 12.1N 53.3W 12.9N 57.2W 13.8N 61.3W 14.7N 66.4W
BAMM 12.5N 54.3W 13.6N 59.6W 15.2N 65.4W 17.2N 72.8W
LBAR 13.0N 56.7W 14.4N 62.5W 16.3N 67.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 36KTS 40KTS 42KTS 45KTS
DSHP 36KTS 40KTS 42KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 44.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 41.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 39.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

I was not going to post this 18:00z run of the tropical models but seeing that ship intensity is to Tropical Storm strengh,it would be good for all to look at this,being the next few days forecast not good as shear will increase.Interesting right?

[WindRunner]

Official pressure is down 2mb from 12z as well, and the center continues to gain latitude. I would hardly call this dead . . . but for the short term, it really isn't looking good.

[x-y-no]

Official pressure is down 2mb from 12z as well, and the center continues to gain latitude. I would hardly call this dead . . . but for the short term, it really isn't looking good.

Well, as it gains latitude into an ever more dry environment, the chances that it can fire up some sustained convection diminish. We should see some flare-up tonight, but I doubt it lasts.

[Coredesat]

Looking rather naked at the moment:



The NRL pressure is up again, to 1013 mb. The dry air is killing this thing, and no, we can't blame this on diurnal minimum because that has been given as an excuse at least three times in the last day, and that isn't exactly diurnal.

[Frank2]

It appears that dry air is already beginning to have an effect (a certain amount of "fair weather" cumulus is seen):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

[hial2]

Reminds me of a book..."The naked and the dead"

[cheezyWXguy]

As of now it looks like it completely detached from the ITCZ at the moment...I maybe wrong but thats what it looks like to me

[johngaltfla]

With that dry air to the north, I just don't see it cranking up. However, if this was a late August storm, well, we'd all be peeing ourselves. It would be in prime position to intensify rapidly.

['CaneFreak]

Why is it that everyone is so concerned with the convection? That is all I have heard the last several days...its ALL ABOUT THE DRY AIR...WHO CARES ABOUT THE CONVECTION? I am more worried about whether the freaking LLC makes it as far west as the eastern or central carribean without falling off of the face of the earth. That is what is concerning me right now...

[harmclan]

As of now it looks like it completely detached from the ITCZ at the moment...I maybe wrong but thats what it looks like to me

The ITCZ detached from the east side over 24 hours ago, detachment from the west side became evident late yesterday.

http://ustropics.ulmb.com

[Weatherfreak000]

Because Canefreak we're discussing 96L not the A naked LLC going into the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

Why is it that everyone is so concerned with the convection? That is all I have heard the last several days...its ALL ABOUT THE DRY AIR...WHO CARES ABOUT THE CONVECTION? I am more worried about whether the freaking LLC makes it as far west as the eastern or central Caribbean without falling off of the face of the earth. That is what is concerning me right now...

Convection is vital to the survival of the disturbance. Convection (rising air near the center) acts to increase inflow in toward the center, resulting in increased lift, lower pressure, and more convection. Without any convection to create inflow, the low gradually spins down and dies.