NHC News Item

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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#121 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 4:39 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:Meanwhile...over at SPC...forecasters are quietly going about the business of issuing products including several TORs over here. No muss, no fuss. Just doing their job.

Speaks volumes about leadership.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA



I love the SPC. What an incredible job they do. But so does the NHC, obviously.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#122 Postby Toadstool » Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:00 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:Meanwhile...over at SPC...forecasters are quietly going about the business of issuing products including several TORs over here. No muss, no fuss. Just doing their job.

Speaks volumes about leadership.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA


You may want to include a decoder ring with that message...
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Re: NHC News Item

#123 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:36 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Hmmm ... so do you level the same criticism at Franklin, Pasch, Knabb and Avila? After all, they all chose to go public as well.



They aren't in charge, they aren't leaders, they're forecasters trying to do a job. Proenza sounds like a loaner to me. Why would he go public with disputed evidence. Why wouldn't he at least discuss it with the staff? Unlike BB I'm not upset at anyone, I just think this is a prime example of leadership failure. THe manager doesn't go public.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#124 Postby crownweather » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:05 pm

Since the Storm Prediction Center was brought up, I thought I'd do a quick compare and contrast with the NHC and the availability of data and the thoughts of yanking hurricane model data (Which I might add irks me greatly when I think about it). If you look at SPC's website, you can find all types of forecast tools; including mesoanalysis, sounding data, etc, etc. On NHC's website the only real model data you can find is a description of the models - there are no links to model data.....you have to go outside to other websites to find this data. Personally, I think the more data the better. Put all of your cards out there and hide nothing. Yes, I do try to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes myself....BUT....at the same time I also take a hard, long look at the NHC forecast track and most times take it as gospel. I just personally think it's egotistical to think that one agency's forecast is the end all and be all of forecasts and putting the raw data out there gives others out there to make their own opinion based on the NHC forecast discussion. I love to forecast severe weather and tropical weather and look at everything. Personally, I also issue a tropical weather discussion highlighting what is out there....with that said....when there is a dangerous and potentially life threatening storm out there, I follow the NHC forecast tracks extremely closely and inform people what to expect based on that forecast track. My mindset is that the raw data shouldn't be pulled because it is always good to look at the reasoning behind any forecast....IMHO. Thoughts and opinions are welcome.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#125 Postby Toadstool » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:10 pm

crownweather wrote:Since the Storm Prediction Center was brought up, I thought I'd do a quick compare and contrast with the NHC and the availability of data and the thoughts of yanking hurricane model data (Which I might add irks me greatly when I think about it). If you look at SPC's website, you can find all types of forecast tools; including mesoanalysis, sounding data, etc, etc. On NHC's website the only real model data you can find is a description of the models - there are no links to model data.....you have to go outside to other websites to find this data. Personally, I think the more data the better. Put all of your cards out there and hide nothing. Yes, I do try to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes myself....BUT....at the same time I also take a hard, long look at the NHC forecast track and most times take it as gospel. I just personally think it's egotistical to think that one agency's forecast is the end all and be all of forecasts and putting the raw data out there gives others out there to make their own opinion based on the NHC forecast discussion. I love to forecast severe weather and tropical weather and look at everything. Personally, I also issue a tropical weather discussion highlighting what is out there....with that said....when there is a dangerous and potentially life threatening storm out there, I follow the NHC forecast tracks extremely closely and inform people what to expect based on that forecast track. My mindset is that the raw data shouldn't be pulled because it is always good to look at the reasoning behind any forecast....IMHO. Thoughts and opinions are welcome.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com


Now I know what SPC stands for! :)
I agree that more data is better, including more forecasts from multiple agencies. I think the NHC does provide the model data in the form of plot points, but they unfortunately don't graphically plot it, so I know what you mean.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#126 Postby benny » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:38 pm

crownweather wrote:Since the Storm Prediction Center was brought up, I thought I'd do a quick compare and contrast with the NHC and the availability of data and the thoughts of yanking hurricane model data (Which I might add irks me greatly when I think about it). If you look at SPC's website, you can find all types of forecast tools; including mesoanalysis, sounding data, etc, etc. On NHC's website the only real model data you can find is a description of the models - there are no links to model data.....you have to go outside to other websites to find this data. Personally, I think the more data the better. Put all of your cards out there and hide nothing. Yes, I do try to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes myself....BUT....at the same time I also take a hard, long look at the NHC forecast track and most times take it as gospel. I just personally think it's egotistical to think that one agency's forecast is the end all and be all of forecasts and putting the raw data out there gives others out there to make their own opinion based on the NHC forecast discussion. I love to forecast severe weather and tropical weather and look at everything. Personally, I also issue a tropical weather discussion highlighting what is out there....with that said....when there is a dangerous and potentially life threatening storm out there, I follow the NHC forecast tracks extremely closely and inform people what to expect based on that forecast track. My mindset is that the raw data shouldn't be pulled because it is always good to look at the reasoning behind any forecast....IMHO. Thoughts and opinions are welcome.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com


As far as I know, all model data that is not protected by agreement or private is posted on their FTP server (the ATCF tracks). So I don't have any idea what "model" data you are referring to.

I also don't think comparing SPC to TPC is fair. Tornadoes are small mesoscale phenomenon that most people have no idea how to forecast. Any person with a chart can see a group of lines on a chart pointing in this or that direction and suddenly "know" where the storm is going to go. I think it is a touchy issue putting model data on their website right next to the forecast. I think it would only confuse most of the public. For weather weenies like most of us on here-- it would be great, but not in the public interest I believe. We can find it elsewhere anyway (like in text form on the TPC FTP server).
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#127 Postby Downdraft » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:51 pm

NOAA has a perfect right to investigate the NHC to see if its Director's comments have eroded the public trust and the ability of it staff to conduct their job. Scientists should stick to science and stay neutral to or above the fray of politics. No one is questioning Proenza's technical abilities but what is in question is his ability to lead. If people start second guessing the forecast products simply because of who their author is people are going to get themselves in serious trouble. Over the years many battles have been fought inside the NHC amongst it forecasters but they never made them public knowing full well it would seriously erode the public trust. I support Proenza's position but I do not support making it while he leads the NHC. If I was him I'd make my exit stage left begin making the big bucks as someone's expert analyist and bad mouth NOAA all he wants. I also agree with David name calling and conspiracy theories in here are over the top. I could say more but I won't make the same mistake Dr. Proenza made and say them in the wrong forum.
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#128 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:55 pm

NHC has become so insanely chaotic
Who knows what happens next
Looks like a big hurricane of an argument
over at the NHC...

UH oh...
hopefully things settle down
Cause right now the pressure is at
900 mb inside the NHC...
hey that rhymes!!!
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Re:

#129 Postby Toadstool » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:07 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:NHC has become so insanely chaotic
Who knows what happens next
Looks like a big hurricane of an argument
over at the NHC...

UH oh...
hopefully things settle down
Cause right now the pressure is at
900 mb inside the NHC...
hey that rhymes!!!


I know, it is worrisome... next thing you know, they'll lose all sense of reality/time and release a 5:30pm TWO at 5:11pm, or a 10:30pm TWO at 10:08! They need to get some discipline. :)
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#130 Postby crownweather » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:30 pm

I guess my point more is of that it seems like some forecasters at NHC are trying to limit public access to the hurricane model data and I have to ask what would happen to us as a weather community if there was no hurricane track model data available?? To me, that is what I read into the rumours I have heard about the NHC today (From Scott)....that access to hurricane model data. Do people agree or disagree with my reading into today's rumour? To me, this is more troublesome and important than the QS issue.

Rob
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#131 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:48 pm

Name calling or using "poor" language on these boards is definitely immature. We should all be respectful of each other and careful not to offend each other. We also need to be careful about the difference between facts and opinions. That's what being professional is all about.

But conspiracy theories and speculation are just that: theories and speculation. They shouldn't offend anyone. If you think it's ludicrous or intellectually off-base, then you can have a discussion about it. These are discussion boards.

The only thing that makes me nervous is when someone says we should be careful about our opinions. As poor as they can be at times, everyone's got a right to their opinion, and in a discussion board like this, on a hot issue like this, it can get pretty intense. But as long as we follow those rules I just mentioned, this should be the ideal place to express ourselves.

I also think the moderators have done a really good job here. They are exercising great restraint in an area where most of us tend to get really emotional.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#132 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:25 pm

Mutiny at the NHC? As a public survant, I find the situation at the NHC most alarming. As an outsider I find fault in all parties involved. First, Director Proenza is wrong for criticizing his bosses in public. Second, the forecasters who want Proenza removed are wrong for bringing their opinions into the public domain. Third, NOAA is wrong for bringing a team down to "investigate" things. Sure, they will find something as grounds to remove Proenza, after all that is why they are there. I can only speculate at why the forecasters want Proenza removed. The new sheriff in town must have stepped on a few toes when implementing his management style. Proenza must have rocked the boat (I know when we get a new big boss there is a lot of discent with the new bosses policies) and changed a few long standing policies at the NHC. Naturally, I smell a rat. No doubt someone at the NHC that opposes Proenza has made some accusations that NOAA is using as a front to investiage. In the end I expect Proenza to be reassigned to another position. That is the way it works in big government......MGC
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#133 Postby Terry » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:31 pm

Personally, I am very glad to see that Proenza spoke the truth and find it appalling if that is the only reason he might be ousted. This is the U.S. If a gov't official can't speak freely to the public hear, where in the world can they?

On the otherhand, I truly suspect that there is quite a bit more going on that we don't fully know about. Otherwise, I think we'd be seeing 100% support coming from the NHC forecasters.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#134 Postby Toadstool » Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:35 am

Terry wrote:Personally, I am very glad to see that Proenza spoke the truth and find it appalling if that is the only reason he might be ousted. This is the U.S. If a gov't official can't speak freely to the public hear, where in the world can they?


I agree that Proenza should speak his mind, but a U.S. gov't official is probably the least able to do so in this time. Let's face it, whistleblowers get outed, not pardoned.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#135 Postby Frank2 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:17 am

NOAA has a perfect right to investigate the NHC to see if its Director's comments have eroded the public trust and the ability of it staff to conduct their job.


What Downdraft said is true, since the Director may have (in strictly Federal employee terms), violated the Standards of Ethical Conduct for Employees of the Executive Branch (since his position, known in Government as an SES position, falls under that category), however, that is not to imply that he did anything for his own gain, since it does not appear that way in any sense, but, it seemed to be his trying to work things in a way that is above the authority given to him in his role, that is the issue.

Also, it's very possible that there might be other internal administrative conflicts that the public or media are not aware of, but, that is for him and his staff (and his superiors) to discuss among themselves...

Media folks who might be reading this, might make note of the above - any administrative problems are for the NHC Director and his staff, and his superiors, to work out, among themselves - there is nothing improper, in a legal sense, when it concerns Federal employees trying to iron out their own internal administrative problems, without them having to respond to a constant flow of media Freedom of Information Act requests for internal documents.

In my opinion, continued media requests of this kind only makes the NHC, and, in the end, the Nation it serves, look foolish to those who live beyond our borders - there is no need for that to happen under the guise of "the media's right to know"...

Ah - now I feel better...
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#136 Postby artist » Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:39 am

Downdraft wrote:NOAA has a perfect right to investigate the NHC to see if its Director's comments have eroded the public trust and the ability of it staff to conduct their job. Scientists should stick to science and stay neutral to or above the fray of politics. No one is questioning Proenza's technical abilities but what is in question is his ability to lead. If people start second guessing the forecast products simply because of who their author is people are going to get themselves in serious trouble. Over the years many battles have been fought inside the NHC amongst it forecasters but they never made them public knowing full well it would seriously erode the public trust. I support Proenza's position but I do not support making it while he leads the NHC. If I was him I'd make my exit stage left begin making the big bucks as someone's expert analyist and bad mouth NOAA all he wants. I also agree with David name calling and conspiracy theories in here are over the top. I could say more but I won't make the same mistake Dr. Proenza made and say them in the wrong forum.


They do have a perfect right, maybe he went outside the norm, but to say he can't lead I just don't buy. Look at his resume. I posted it on page 5 I believe. He has had many positions where he has had to lead. This just does not make sense. He has also had many years in the gov't. as well, therefore for him to go to the media, I still think he must have felt he needed to. Unfortunately what he may not have realized was the media would try to make it overly dramatic as they want to sell papers and find recognition (the author). I am open if anyone can provide other details, but I am leaning towards this being a witch hunt and may have been started internally for whatever reason remains to be seen. Did Proenza possibly change up staff positions within the NHC? I just don't know, I am only speculating, but I do feel confident that he does know how to lead or he wouldn't have lasted all these years in the go'vt. in high positions he has had. He is obviously well respected by his peers as well with all the appointments he has received. Have jobs been threatened if they side one way? Promises made if they get him out? Or did he just goof? Just some of the questions we all need to ask.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#137 Postby Downdraft » Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:41 pm

I bet Stacey Stewart is glad he is serviing in Iraq right now. He'd probably get more flak if he was back home at his desk.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#138 Postby DanKellFla » Thu Jul 05, 2007 3:36 pm

Terry wrote:Personally, I am very glad to see that Proenza spoke the truth and find it appalling if that is the only reason he might be ousted. This is the U.S. If a gov't official can't speak freely to the public hear, where in the world can they?

On the otherhand, I truly suspect that there is quite a bit more going on that we don't fully know about. Otherwise, I think we'd be seeing 100% support coming from the NHC forecasters.


I totally agree. There has to be something else going on. Yes, the public nature of his comments were out of line, but for this controversy to go this far I suspect that there is more to this story. Proenza could have let his disappointment with the QuickSat situation known to the public in a low key way, and then be quiet about it.

One think I don't understand is the public nature of the three forecasters comments. If it were me, I would just keep my mouth shut.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#139 Postby Toadstool » Thu Jul 05, 2007 4:24 pm

DanKellFla wrote:One think I don't understand is the public nature of the three forecasters comments. If it were me, I would just keep my mouth shut.


They wanted a different boss... for whatever reason, I'm not sure, but it's easy to understand they didn't like his management style and have made their chess move.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#140 Postby artist » Thu Jul 05, 2007 4:37 pm

this is interesting -

June 28, 2007
Senior hurricane researcher: You go, Bill Proenza!
There was considerable interest in the Proenza vs. NOAA topic (in which the National Hurricane Center director has openly criticized his superiors for actions he deems harmful to hurricane research and forecasting) earlier this month, so I thought I'd provide an update.

Margie Kieper at Weather Underground has been doing a nice job following events, which seem to have turned in Proenza's favor. He's got public support, and the support of some federal legislators from Florida.


Willoughby
Yesterday I learned that he also had the support of Hugh Willoughby, who directed NOAA's hurricane research from 1995 to 2002 and has flown a remarkable 400 times into storms. I spoke to Willoughby, now a distinguished professor at Florida International University, for a related story on hurricanes, and asked him about the Proenza imbroglio:

"I'm the founding member of a chapter of the Bill Proenza Fan Club here at FIU," Willoughby said, adding that he left NOAA because of constant budget battles.

Willoughby said NOAA would "be really stupid to fire him," noting that Proenza's reputation is one for looking "after his agency's best interests rather than the interests of his bosses."

He then gave an example how chronically under-funded NOAA's hurricane research is.

"We had an instrument that flew in Hurricane Allen in 1980, a passive microwave radiometer, which measures microwaves. If you look in the microwave at various frequencies you can see through rain, and measure surface wind speeds and the rain rates. It's a simple and useful technology that only costs about $100,000 per unit. And it's taken 27 years to get to the point where there's money to deploy these on the Air Force C-130s."

To be clear, the instruments have flown on NOAA airplanes for awhile, but not the Hurricane Hunters of the Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, which collect data for forecasters from Atlantic basin storms. The point is that obtaining funding for worthwhile hurricane research has long been like pulling teeth. And Proenza is refreshing, Willoughby, because he's so willing to speak out about the issue.

At any rate, this issue will ultimately be decided during hurricane season. If Proenza and his team botch a critical forecast, his job may well be on the line. But if he earns the public's trust, however, his position is golden.

His funding might be as well.


http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... rican.html
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