Impressive +10 degree Lat. Tropical Wave,Eastern Atlantic

[Dean4Storms]

I think this is the first Tropical Wave showing signs of coming off Africa clearly north of the 10 Latitude, is it not?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I know the SST's and Saharan Dust and dry air to the north will likely dissapate the convection. But it is a sign of change.

[Aquawind]

Yep.. With a few more opportunities right behind. The ITCZ has moved north of the mean position in recent weeks.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/movies/metirnhc/metirnhcjava.html

[cycloneye]

The question is if this will go poof soon or it will hang on as it moves westward.Another one that has to deal with the Sal.



TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS JUST E OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SSMI DERIVED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS A VERY BROAD
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING WITH A HINT OF AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION NEAR 16N22W. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DISPLAYED A
CLEAR WAVE SIGNAL WITH THE PASSAGE OCCURRING JUST BEFORE 00Z. IN
ADDITION...SYNOPTIC SFC OBS IN THE REGION INDICATE 24-H PRES
FALLS NEAR 2 MB. DESPITE THE LARGE STRUCTURE AND WELL-DEFINED
SIGNAL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL
NEAR THE AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST OF IT ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ.


New wave is introduced by TPC in the 2 PM Discussion.

[dwg71]

Poof... I predict. Still too ealry that far out.

[storms in NC]

It is hard to tell right now on how strong it is that is what will be the player.

[canegrl04]

It still looks good.If its still holding together tomorrow,it may have a chance

[gatorcane]

we see this time and time again folks. They look good near Africa. I say 99% chance of poof in about 24 hours....

[Cyclone1]

Well, it does look good, but nothing until it gets to the central Atlantic. Then it will have to be watched, if it holds together.

[dixiebreeze]

Wave looking very good late tonight. The next Invest? Thoughts anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[Normandy]

Its got a shot really, not much dry air around it like 96L had

[Berwick Bay]

The important thing is the energy added to the basin. Not looking for development in the far eastern Atlantic. Looking further west. I'm intrigued by this wave (and probably the next one too) for purely selfish reasons. The timing may coordinate nicely with my prediction for possible hurricane formation south of the Cuban Central Coast between July 26 and July 29, at about 21N and 79W. Purely selfish reasons.

[boca]

The important thing is the energy added to the basin. Not looking for development in the far eastern Atlantic. Looking further west. I'm intrigued by this wave (and probably the next one too) for purely selfish reasons. The timing may coordinate nicely with my prediction for possible hurricane formation south of the Cuban Central Coast between July 26 and July 29, at about 21N and 79W. Purely selfish reasons.

I this your first prediction at 21n and 79w, or did I miss your post on this formation?

[Berwick Bay]

Boca, I posted the prediction for tropical (actually hurricane) formation in Cyclone Eye's thread 'Poll About Hurricane Formation'. So its hidden over there. July 26-29 just along the south shore of the central Cuban Coast, at about 21N and 79W. BTW I hope that all of you have a real good time at the board get together. Wish I could be there.

[Cyclone1]

Awww man! As soon as I leave to go a computer-free vacation, the wave holds together and becomes a potential INVEST. This always happens!

[canegrl04]

Awww man! As soon as I leave to go a computer-free vacation, the wave holds together and becomes a potential INVEST. This always happens!

This needs upgrading to invest today.I would be shocked if it wasn't. Have fun on your vacation anyway

[cycloneye]

Well,it has reached the 30w longitud and for the most part convection has held,however,it's embedded within the ITCZ.Now let's see when it gets to 40w how it looks. I am noticing that distint from previous years,the majority of this years waves haved not gone poof as soon as they hit the water.

[canegrl04]

Interesting NHC discussion this morning with this wave. They see possible TWO cyclonic centers.Scattered moderate to strong convection

[Frank2]

Is this what this topic is referring to?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

...it's just the ITZ flaring up (but there sure is a large area of dry air and dust to it's north)...

[OURAGAN]

Yes, but the dust will begin to dissipate with the entire MJO in the atlantic now.

[windstorm99]

The wave does not look to impressive to me infact the SAL to its north will likely either kill it or keep it in check during the next few days.Adrian