Invest 97L near Bermuda

[Weatherfreak14]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0016 UTC MON JUL 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070723 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070723 0000 070723 1200 070724 0000 070724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.0N 63.0W 35.4N 62.9W 37.6N 62.8W 39.4N 62.3W
BAMD 33.0N 63.0W 34.6N 63.1W 35.8N 63.2W 36.9N 63.3W
BAMM 33.0N 63.0W 34.9N 63.3W 36.5N 63.5W 38.0N 63.6W
LBAR 33.0N 63.0W 34.5N 63.0W 35.9N 63.1W 37.2N 63.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070725 0000 070726 0000 070727 0000 070728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.0N 60.7W 41.9N 53.4W 40.7N 44.0W 38.5N 34.7W
BAMD 37.8N 63.5W 39.0N 62.6W 38.2N 63.7W 40.9N 65.0W
BAMM 39.3N 63.4W 40.9N 59.8W 39.4N 56.2W 39.9N 56.7W
LBAR 38.1N 63.0W 39.4N 61.0W 38.7N 57.7W 38.6N 55.1W
SHIP 39KTS 44KTS 37KTS 22KTS
DSHP 39KTS 44KTS 37KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.0N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 31.8N LONM12 = 63.4W DIRM12 = 16DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 30.6N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1018MB OUTPRS = 1019MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Here are the first model plots for 97L.

MMM. well the SHIP Model brings it to 44KTS

[HURAKAN]

The clock's ticking if anything is going to happen based on the models.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow...initializing at 30kts...thats surprising.

[SkeetoBite]

[Weatherfreak14]

FISH

[Recurve]

Shot at 2007-07-22

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 close up
1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF
BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.

[cheezyWXguy]

Shot at 2007-07-22

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 close up
1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF
BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.

You realize that was this morning, right?

[windstorm99]

Pretty surprised this disorganized mess is an invest right now as its time for any intensification is very short.Models take this right out to sea with no problems.

[Recurve]

You realize that was this morning, right?

Yes, 11:30 am EDT.

[harmclan]

[Recurve]

Shot at 2007-07-22

[Cyclone1]

Where is the center to this? Is there one? Or is this just a "general area invest"?

[Recurve]

It looks like a twin-blobber. Not sure where the more northern L is centered.

[Cyclone1]

It reminds me of the invest that spawned the 2006 no-name storm and Beryl in a vague way. Basically, a large invest with two areas to watch, north and south. However, the south part is looking pretty rough.

[cheezyWXguy]

You realize that was this morning, right?

Yes, 11:30 am EDT.

im just wondering why it is significant, as its 9pm on the east coast

[AnnularCane]

I was more impressed with 96L.

[Cyclone1]

I was more impressed with 96L.

It was definitley a more impressive system. More impressive than either of our named storms. But give this one a day and see what happens.

[wxman57]

Honestly, I haven't a clue what the NHC is doing with this invest. There's nothing of significance there but some sheared convection east of an upper low. There is no surface trof east of Bermuda at all, that trof/front is along the east U.S. Coast. Pressures around Bermuda are 1020mb, even higher where the invest is.

Here's a 00Z surface plot with the red crosshairs at the point of the invest. Nothing there at the surface but high pressure, folks. Development chances are about zero. Remember that the models think that there is a circulation center and predict intensification accordingly. On that, they're wrong, and the predictions are wrong. I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

[Recurve]

You realize that was this morning, right?

Yes, 11:30 am EDT.

im just wondering why it is significant, as its 9pm on the east coast

Just so people checking in see the current plot, it wasn't in this thread yet. There's been some confusion all along about which low/area various threads were about.

[Aric Dunn]

oh boy.. it had better happen soon...

otherwise it will be over cooler water..