TD 07-E,TS Dalila in Eastern Pacific

[Cyclone1]

Hmm, I could have sworn she'd end up being stronger than Cosme.

[HURAKAN]

Dalila, in the way out, close the door!!!

[Cyclenall]

Dalila, you are a failure like all the rest of the TC's this Epac season had thus far except Cosme. Opposite of the 2006 Epac season .

[AnnularCane]

Dalila, you are a failure like all the rest of the TC's this Epac season had thus far except Cosme. Opposite of the 2006 Epac season .

Awwww, don't listen to that, Dalila. Considering what you had to deal with, I think you did pretty well.

(Is trying to increase the morale of a tropical storm a sign that I'm losing it?)

[HURAKAN]

Dalila is winding down faster than anticipated yesterday. Even
though the SSTs beneath Dalila's center are about 27.5c...the
strong gradient of SST just to the north of the system is
allowing dry stable air to be entrained into the western
semi-Circle of the cyclone's circulation. A blend of the T and CI
Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB suggests an intensity of 40 kt.

Dalila has been moving toward the northwest at about 8 kt...due to
the combined influence of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast and a
weak mid-level trough to its northwest. As it spins down over the
next couple of days...the cyclone will be steered off to the
west-northwest by the lower-level flow. The track forecast follows
the consensus of the tightly-clustered model guidance.

Dalila will continue moving northwest tomorrow and will cross the
26c SST isotherm. Any remaining convection will likely fizzle at
that point and the cyclone should become a remnant low in about two
days. This scenario closely follows the SHIPS and GFDL intensity
guidance. Dalila might not be an identifiable low by day 5...but a
position is given just in case.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/2100z 20.1n 112.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 20.8n 113.3w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1800z 21.7n 114.7w 30 kt
36hr VT 27/0600z 22.3n 116.2w 30 kt
48hr VT 27/1800z 23.0n 117.9w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 28/1800z 24.0n 120.5w 20 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 29/1800z 24.0n 123.0w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 30/1800z 24.0n 125.0w 20 kt...remnant low

$$
forecaster Landsea/Avila

[HurricaneRobert]

At least it finally has convection around the center.



That looks better than what Hurakan posted earlier.

[AnnularCane]

Wow, she is beautiful! I just realized I haven't looked at a visible shot of her all day.

[Andrew92]

If I didn't know Dalila had little deep convection or was on the way down, I might think she was a hurricane right now looking at that image!

-Andrew92

[Chacor]

EP, 07, 2007072600, , BEST, 0, 202N, 1123W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 120, 75, 0, 1010, 250, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DALILA, M,

[cycloneye]

2 KNHC 260229
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

DALILA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...BOTH IN BANDS SOUTH
OF THE CENTER AND NOW OVER THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 18Z WAS
PARTIALLY BLANKED OUT...BUT WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY OF AT
LEAST 40 KT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT GIVES 37 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 40 KT BUT MIGHT BE A SHADE LOW. REGARDLESS...DALILA WILL BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
LARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7. RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE DECAYING CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AFTER THAT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT
TAKE THE DECAYING CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 20.4N 112.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 21.1N 113.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 115.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 22.8N 117.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z 24.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 31/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cyclenall]

Unbelievably, I think Dalila may be rapidly becoming a hurricane. I noticed it looked better during the evening hours of the night and had some good banding going for it. Now, I can start to see a eye and a eyewall forming and it looks really good. I would have never thought this was going to happen after today. I wouldn't have even gave the chance of it occurring 1%!!!!!

I'm shocked. I need some images that show a eyewall forming but what it really is, is the convection is wrapping around the center and it's not filled with convection. I've never seen a tropical cyclone do that. This is so weird, I wonder what the NHC is going to say about it at 5:00 am, weakening like crazy and looking terrible with the % at 2 for hurricane formation, and then it becoming a hurricane in a short time. Insane.

[AnnularCane]

Unbelievably, I think Dalila may be rapidly becoming a hurricane. I noticed it looked better during the evening hours of the night and had some good banding going for it. Now, I can start to see a eye and a eyewall forming and it looks really good. I would have never thought this was going to happen after today. I wouldn't have even gave the chance of it occurring 1%!!!!!

I'm shocked. I need some images that show a eyewall forming but what it really is, is the convection is wrapping around the center and it's not filled with convection. I've never seen a tropical cyclone do that. This is so weird, I wonder what the NHC is going to say about it at 5:00 am, weakening like crazy and looking terrible with the % at 2 for hurricane formation, and then it becoming a hurricane in a short time. Insane.

Maybe she heard what you said about her earlier.

She does look better, but unfortunately, she is running out of room, from what I heard.

[Chacor]

[Cyclenall]

Maybe she heard what you said about her earlier.

Yeah, she certainly did hear what I said .

She does look better, but unfortunately, she is running out of room, from what I heard.

I know, I'm not sure if Dalila can pull it off in time before the environment becomes too harsh for a hurricane . It appears Dalila is having great trouble finishing the wrap effect without convection issues and dry air mass. Every minute counts for this event.

Maybe it breifly strengthened to 60 knots?

[Chacor]

It definitely strengthened. 06Z up to 45 kt:

EP, 07, 2007072606, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1127W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 120, 75, 0, 1010, 250, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DALILA, D,

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260840
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007

DALILA IS NOT DONE YET. WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS DISSIPATED...NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 45 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT HAS INCHED UPWARDS TO 41 KT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED SOLELY ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. DALILA'S 11TH HOUR HEROICS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DALILA IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 310/8. DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD FIZZLE LATER TODAY AND THE DECAYING CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 21.6N 114.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 115.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 23.3N 117.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 23.9N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0600Z 24.5N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 31/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

Back to 40 kts.

EP, 07, 2007072612, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1137W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 100, 0, 30, 1010, 300, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DALILA, M,

[HURAKAN]

DALILIAS & DALILAS FROM THE PAST:









The name Dalila has been used for two tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. However, before 1995, it was known as Dalilia, the Spanish form of "Delilah"; it was changed, perhaps inadvertently, in operational documents prior to the 1995 season, and the misspelling has remained.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995dalila.html#FOOTNOTE

[Chacor]

947
WTPZ42 KNHC 261440
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007

DALILA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOW LIMITED TO WITHIN
125 NMI OF THE CENTER...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 40 KT OR
A BIT LOWER...WHILE THE ADT ANALYSIS GIVES ABOUT 45 KT. THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT. DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE
DECAYING AS IT HEADS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IT MAY
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HR. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.

CURRENT MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT
BASED UPON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...TWO MICROWAVE PASSES
LAST NIGHT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE PICTURE THIS MORNING. DALILA WILL
LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS IT
BECOMES STEERED BY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOWER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST UTILIZES THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE.

HIGH SURF REPORTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET HIGHER THAN USUAL ALONG EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY.
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 22.0N 114.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 22.6N 115.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.4N 116.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 24.0N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/1200Z 24.5N 119.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1200Z 25.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/1200Z 25.0N 123.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA

[WindRunner]

The name Dalila has been used for two tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. However, before 1995, it was known as Dalilia, the Spanish form of "Delilah"; it was changed, perhaps inadvertently, in operational documents prior to the 1995 season, and the misspelling has remained.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995dalila.html#FOOTNOTE

Actually, I have heard that it was operationally misspelled on the first advisory as a TS . . . one Miles Lawerence left out the last 'i' on the advisory package and the name stuck.