Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

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Weatherfreak14
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#381 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:02 pm

windstorm99 wrote:
philnyc wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Wave looks desent but its moving into subsidence from the MJO which might make keep it from getting better organized.Shear is not to bad around 15-20kts in the area.


Don't worry too much about the MJO. The pros are still not sure exactly how much effect it has. Obviously it should always be considered, but when the majority of other factors are favorable, its influence can be negligible.


Its also got some significant amount of dry air to its north.


That is upper level, at mid level is over 50% in RH around the whole area, but yes it is pretty dry above that.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#382 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:05 pm

Convection has now fired almost right over the center and is lookin really good.Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#383 Postby philnyc » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:12 pm

windstorm99 wrote:
philnyc wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Wave looks desent but its moving into subsidence from the MJO which might make keep it from getting better organized.Shear is not to bad around 15-20kts in the area.


Don't worry too much about the MJO. The pros are still not sure exactly how much effect it has. Obviously it should always be considered, but when the majority of other factors are favorable, its influence can be negligible.


Its also got some significant amount of dry air to its north.


Actually, at the middle levels, where it counts, the air is quite moist (I marked the disturbance position with a red circle):

Image

There are a only a couple of pockets of 40-60% RH to its north and west, but that's not that dry to begin with, and they are not that big and should increase in RH as it approaches.
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Re:

#384 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:50 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Could this be what the GFS has crossing FL in 212 hrs?


I think this wave is the low the GFS has crossing SFL in 212hr.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Per Accuweather:
Another wave exists near 47 west, between 5 north and 17 north, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This wave is producing spotty thunderstorms and has a very poor-defined surface circulation. Conditions in the atmosphere are somewhat favorable for further development in this area and, with the water just warm enough, this wave is worth paying attention to over the next few days. Tracking west slowly at about 3 degrees of longitude per day, it is several days from affecting any land.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#385 Postby philnyc » Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:34 pm

Its also got some significant amount of dry air to its north.[/quote]

That is upper level, at mid level is over 50% in RH around the whole area, but yes it is pretty dry above that.[/quote]

You got it!
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#386 Postby Huckster » Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:42 am

Wave along 46 or 47 west is looking good to me this morning. Lots of deep convection appears to be forming and even beginning to wrap. Outflow appears good too. I'd say this is our best shot at a truly tropical system so far this year, and definitely the best bet at one from the MDR. Anyone else up this early or late watching this system?
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#387 Postby weatherman0518 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:50 am

yes Huckster, i agree the wave between 45-50 west looks great this morning, im no expert but *IF* convection continues like this for 12 hours or more could we see an invest???
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#388 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:03 am

It is under pretty favorable upper level shear. The latest satellite and what ever surface data we have, shows a mostly closed LLC near 9/44-44.5. I think we will have a depression if this keeps up. This is the area to watch. Any ways on satellite shows a nice MLC at least.

This quickscat is old. But you get the idea. The wave data doe's show what could be a LLC. So I'm not totally with out data.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png
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#389 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:10 am

Wow, its organizing faster than i thought....although its still rather disorganized with convection not really centralized over the LLC....but the one thing that makes this one more promising is the fact that it has deep convection. Looking at the IR2 Channel I think its fairly obvious there is some sort of circulation....cumuli clouds from the N are streaming SW into the convection, and low level clouds to the west are training straight into the wave. Still the exact location really is impossible to determine.

Its lattitude is worrisome, especially if it develops quickly...itll likely be a low rider through the carribean, and probably will slip under an EC trough....Not trying to scare anyone, but if this develops it might be our first legit threat of the season....Of course, it has to develop first though.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#390 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:15 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 000/1.html

The low is at least 1-1.5 degrees south of this to. This will be a low rider.
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#391 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:19 am

^Yes, really has no shot at moving north of PR or the islands with the ridge on top of it.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#392 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:03 am

The higher SST's just a little west should help this thing spin up.
Instead of a weak wave traveling through South America it looks as though (IMHO) there may be a well established circulation entering the Caribbean.

The NHC is in a tough position with a system like this since climo would suggest that it might remain a tumbleweed and track through SA. On the other hand if it does develop early the upper air steering appears to aim it at the Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#393 Postby alan1961 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:07 am

the usual flare up overnight but is battling dry air again to its north.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#394 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:27 am

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLIER ALONG 50W
WAS RELOCATED TO THE EAST ALONG 48W/49W BASED ON FORWARD
EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE HOVMOELLER ANALYSES. AN EXPANDING
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AT
THE BASE OF THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. RATHER
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING WAS NOTED NEAR 9N45W
AROUND WHAT MAY BE A POSSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#395 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:05 am

Certainly appears "invest-worthy" to me. I'll be taking a good look at this disturbance through the day today. If the current trend in organization continues (big if), then it could become Chantal in 2-3 days.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#396 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:16 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but appears the GFS takes this low through the Islands, DR, Cuba, into Gulf up to La.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

NHC didn't even mention this wave in their 5:30 Outlook.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#397 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:32 am

The GFS is probably initialized too far north, before the low relocation.

Oil speculators last friday ran the price up over 2$ a barrel on "low reserve" reports. Even if the oil market is now over bought the speculators can wait and sell into the market strength as the system moves west.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#398 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:33 am

TPC seems rather bullish on the low's development.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#399 Postby cnflstormchaser » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:54 am

Good Morning All,
I am new to this board.... So I am saying Hello in advance. Now to the point based on infrared http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html and visable satillite, this system looks atleast invest worthy. I would say if convection persists and continues to refire, we will have an invest by tomorrow afternoon if not earlier. Comments welcome.
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#400 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:55 am

Time to looks south Luis...I think we may have something here..
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