INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[wxman57]

ironically Wxman is usually the one axing development on this board...in this case he is leaning towards a POSSIBLE situation for the GOM.....

that speaks for itself...

I'd prefer to think of it as being more realistic as far as development potential. But 99L is looking better over the last few hours. It's not as far east as the NHC initialized the models, though.

[RL3AO]

wxman, what do you think of the wave behind 99L?

[wxman57]

16:22z descending pass of QuikScat:

http://snark.themedwiz.com/quikscat20070730_1622desc.png

Watch the times in purple at the bottom of the image which represent the actual pass time. The image you posted is from around 21Z yesterday.

[wxman57]

wxman, what do you think of the wave behind 99L?

It means I may be working most of August without a day off.

[Duddy]

And just when I thought I would wake up to another boring work day!

Looks like I'll be putting good use to my iPhone's web browser!

[RL3AO]

Is this the first CV wave this year that has gotten more organized during the day instead of just falling off the face of the earth around noon.

[wxman57]

Best rotation (mid level) appears to be near 10.2N/47.9W as of 1630Z. Good "blob" of convection over this area. Persistence is the key. If convection persists over the mid-level center for more than 24 hours,then an LLC may begin to form.

[x-y-no]

16:22z descending pass of QuikScat:

http://snark.themedwiz.com/quikscat20070730_1622desc.png

Watch the times in purple at the bottom of the image which represent the actual pass time. The image you posted is from around 21Z yesterday.

Ah, foo ...

I knew that. Sorry - not at the top of my game today. Thanks for pointing that out.

[ronjon]

The development of this disturbance is hauntingly similar to another recent storm.....

The first center position estimates were given by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in the vicinity of 9-10°N, 47°W at 2345 UTC 7 August, although at that time the system was still too weak to classify by the Dvorak technique. The first Dvorak T-numbers were assigned 24 h later, when the system was centered near 11°N, 55°W. Curved banding of the deep convection became better defined over the ensuing 12 h, and this, along with surface observations from the southern Windward Islands, indicated that a tropical depression had formed by 1200 UTC 9 August, centered about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados.

[RL3AO]

Charley?

[gatorcane]

ironically Wxman is usually the one axing development on this board...in this case he is leaning towards a POSSIBLE situation for the GOM.....

that speaks for itself...

I'd prefer to think of it as being more realistic as far as development potential. But 99L is looking better over the last few hours. It's not as far east as the NHC initialized the models, though.

What are the ramifications of not being as far east?

I just took another look after lunch here...its looking like the convection is going to persist. I really think this is going to be a depression within 24 hours...

[ronjon]

Charley?

Bingo.

[LSU2001]

Charley?

YEP
snip
Tropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Charley
9 - 14 August 2004
Richard J. Pasch, Daniel P. Brown, and Eric S. Blake
National Hurricane Center
18 October 2004
Revised: 5 January 2005

Hurricane Charley strengthened rapidly just before striking the southwestern coast of Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Charley was the strongest hurricane to hit the United States since Andrew in 1992 and, although small in size, it caused catastrophic wind damage in Charlotte County, Florida. Serious damage occurred well inland over the Florida peninsula.

a. Synoptic History

A tropical wave emerged from western Africa on 4 August. Radiosonde data from Dakar showed that this wave was accompanied by an easterly jet streak of around 55 kt near the 650 mb level. The wave also produced surface pressure falls on the order of 5 mb over 24 h near the west coast of Africa. On satellite images this system was not particularly impressive just after crossing the coast, since it had only a small area of associated deep convection. As the wave progressed rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic, the cloud pattern gradually became better organized, with cyclonic turning becoming more evident in the low clouds. The first center position estimates were given by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in the vicinity of 9-10°N, 47°W at 2345 UTC 7 August, although at that time the system was still too weak to classify by the Dvorak technique. The first Dvorak T-numbers were assigned 24 h later, when the system was centered near 11°N, 55°W. Curved banding of the deep convection became better defined over the ensuing 12 h, and this, along with surface observations from the southern Windward Islands, indicated that a tropical depression had formed by 1200 UTC 9 August, centered about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados. Figure 1 depicts the "best track" of the tropical cyclone's path. The wind and pressure histories are shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. Table 1 is a listing of the best track positions and intensities.

[TexWx]

Pretty good look at the whole picture here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

[RL3AO]

Charley?

Bingo.

The date sounded familiar.

[gatorcane]

Well folks here could be the first big headache of the 2007 season for the US mainland in and/or Caribbean Islands (bottom-right corner)

map showing proximity to the U.S.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm sure it has been spoken too, but a system developing this far south and west if it does indeed usually spells early trouble this time of year, Charley, Dennis and even Ivan for example

[JonathanBelles]

I really dont wanna hear the word Charley. This is what happens when you leave for 24 hours.

[windstorm99]

Afternoon...

99L looks very interesting right now with an anticyclone over it and low windshear in its path.

[seaswing]

Gator~

So do you think the set up (for now) is that Bermuda high sitting where it was in 2004 in relation to these possible (headaches?) because if so, the storms in 2004 couldn't get past Florida and it seemed like we were under the gun so to speak for a long time with the trains that just kept movin'

Seas