Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

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bvigal
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Re:

#141 Postby bvigal » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:00 am

rockyman wrote:...let's all be thankful that maybe this won't develop into too much before crossing the southern Windwards
Yes, I am always thankful. (Thank you Father!)

caribepr wrote:Hey bvigal! I'll rely on you for the telegraph - it's not like living on STX anymore...where de plane shows up. Here I find out more from sailor friends and they are heading out like lemmings to the sea at the moment, south and a couple going north during the window. The ones staying are beefing up anchors and / or heading for the mangrove holes (which they can still sneak into around here without a lot of hassle).
Our border season isn't what it used to be. We've still got a gob of bareboaters (discount pricing season :wink:) in the waters. Talked to dive op owner yesterday, bookings still heavy this week, then drop sharply next week. Meanwhile, lots of places, like SDB in JVD, already closed for their vacation. Hurricane hole is half-full, though they can pack it up in a good long day, if necessary. Don't know where the other boats would go, there are just too many here to fit in the hole.... they are taking a big risk to stay this late. :roll:
caribepr wrote:I'm trying to get over there this month sometime soon -)
COOL! I'll send you a PM.
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#142 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:01 am

The 06 runs on the intensity models :

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

GFDL bringing it to hurricane strength and HWRF disapating it
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#143 Postby bvigal » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:04 am

punkyg wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Dvorak up this morning:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1145 UTC 11.6N 57.0W T1.5/1.5 99L
What does it mean?
did it always say storm?

yes, it always said that, just like it always said "DATE/TIME" "LAT" etc, - it's a column heading! :lol:
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#144 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:05 am

If this can maintain the inflow on the east side today...this has a good shot once in the carib...
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#145 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:06 am

I wonder what the NHC will say in the next TWO?
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#146 Postby ciclonson » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:07 am

Derek, it has been said on another thread by another pro met that it is almost impossible to tell the difference on satellite between an MLC and a LLC. Can you tell us what "signs" you look for and how we can know if there is one or not? Is it because you use some product that is not available to the public? To my untrained eyes, I would say there is one right now, but I realize I am probably wrong. Trying to learn...
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#147 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:07 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:I wonder what the NHC will say in the next TWO?


I would say the same thing..Depression in the next day or 2...
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#148 Postby punkyg » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:09 am

I don't know if this is the latest one, but i like the CLP5 model.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_99.gif
Last edited by punkyg on Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#149 Postby vaffie » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:10 am

Once the hurricane hunter plane has gone in there and collected a lot of data, all the global models will start characterizing it properly, and will start giving us much more accurate forecasts than they are presently. Right now, they think it's a weak wave and weak waves go east to west into central america, but a stronger storm almost always tracks further north--and they will likely start showing tracks that are further north. The ultimate track--whether it enters the Gulf or not--is too far out for anyone or any model to predict with any degree of accuracy at this point though.
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Re:

#150 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:10 am

punkyg wrote:I don't know if this is the latest one, but i like the clp5 model.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_99.gif


I dont think the orange one is really a model
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#151 Postby TexWx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:11 am

"I don't know if this is the latest one, but i like the clp5 model."

You must not own your own home....
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Derek Ortt

Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#152 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:12 am

clp5... oh dear lord...

That is NOT a model, it is climatology and persistence (or as Chris Landsea has said when giving an enso seminar a few years ago, a 5 year old with a crayon)

It is very hard on sats to dtermine if the circulation is at the surface, or between 1-2km above. That's why we need obs
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#153 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:12 am

"I don't know if this is the latest one, but i like the clp5 model."

You must not own your own home....


Probably a middle or high schooler
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#154 Postby bbadon » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:15 am

How will or shall I say will potential development in the GOM effect the future track of 99l?
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#155 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:16 am

bbadon wrote:How will or shall I say will potential development in the GOM effect the future track of 99l?


I would say not at all.
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#156 Postby colbroe » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:17 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011400Z AUG 07//
WTNT 01 KNGU 011400
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/301130Z JUL 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 301200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 58.0W TO 15.6N 70.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 011400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 58.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#157 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:19 am

Cyclone1 wrote:
bbadon wrote:How will or shall I say will potential development in the GOM effect the future track of 99l?


I would say not at all.


I would have to disagree this is the latest it has hung on to its convection like this and it seems to keep on building on convection, if it keeps this up all day we will have a depression by tommrow at 11am.
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caneman

Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#158 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:19 am

NW movement, HMMMM that is interesting.
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#159 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:20 am

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Re: Invest 99L, East of Windwards - Thread #4

#160 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:20 am

That doesnt sound right...
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