Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Ed Mahmoud]

To say only one,Ivan was a major in the Eastern Caribbean and not weakened.

Ivan did not develop in the eastern Caribbean, and thus is not an exception to the "John Hope" rule.

[dwg71]

At least we know where the COC is.

Where? I can't see anything at the moment.

[Brent]

Charley, Dennis, and Ernesto all formed in the Eastern Caribbean and quickly got names.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

the old John Hope rule, IMO, is a pile of dung. How many systems have we seen devleop in the E Carib the past few years? Quite a few

It only matters what the atmospheric conditions are at the present time and they look more favorable now than they did the last two days

You only need to look at a map showing the genesis of tropical cyclones to know that substantially less storms form in the eastern caribbean. There must be reasons for this.

[cycloneye]

What I mean't was that Ivan crossed the supposed graveyard as a major.I know it formed well east of the Southern Windwards.

[HURAKAN]

To say only one,Ivan was a major in the Eastern Caribbean and not weakened.

Charley formed and intensified in the ECAR.

[Brent]

[Ivanhater]

I think any low may be between barbados and the souther windwards...just east of the western blowup

[Ed Mahmoud]

the old John Hope rule, IMO, is a pile of dung. How many systems have we seen devleop in the E Carib the past few years? Quite a few

It only matters what the atmospheric conditions are at the present time and they look more favorable now than they did the last two days

You only need to look at a map showing the genesis of tropical cyclones to know that substantially less storms form in the eastern caribbean. There must be reasons for this.

Well, I'm not a Met, nor play one on TV, but I have seen Joe Bastardi explain this on video. The Eastern Caribbean is most hostile earlier in the season, when the semi-permanent Colombian heat low is strongest, because South America is warm relative to the oceans around it. Later in August and September, as the land stops warming and the oceans continue to warm, it loses some oomph. But the low causes strong low level flow, which causes any system to move quickly, enhancing relative shear and decreasing convergence. I don't think Bastarid mentioned this, but it seems the frequent Equatorial storms over land also produce Westerlies at the outflow level that don't help. As systems reach the Western Caribbean, the flow weakens, and in fact, the slowing of the trades over the Central American landmass due to frictional effects actually enhance convergence.


Gilbert also strengthened in the Eastern Caribbean but it was later in the season, and already a well established cyclone.

[Coredesat]

At least we know where the COC is.

There isn't one.

[HURAKAN]

We need another diurnal maximum!!!

Just quoting myself.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We need another diurnal maximum!!!

Just quoting myself.

Yeah, I can't wait to see what happens tonight. Seems like this system always tends to look it's worst when I go to bed and look it's best when I wake up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Charley- became a TD just outside the Eastern Caribbean
Dennis was classified a depression right as it crossed the islands.


No rule of thumb is 100% correct, but devleopment of a wave into a depression in the Eastern Carib. seems awfully rare.

[HURAKAN]

We need another diurnal maximum!!!

Just quoting myself.

Yeah, I can't wait to see what happens tonight. Seems like this system always tends to look it's worst when I go to bed and look it's best when I wake up.

Didn't Chantal teach you that!!!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Charley- became a TD just outside the Eastern Caribbean
Dennis was classified a depression right as it crossed the islands.


No rule of thumb is 100% correct, but devleopment of a wave into a depression in the Eastern Carib. seems awfully rare.

~~~~~~~~~
Exactly. It happens but it is extremely rare.

[Derek Ortt]

the SAL also often does not help things in the EC... often times we have screaing low level easterlies due to the SAL.

Also, Alpha, Gamma, Ernesto, Claudette, Mindy developed in the EC and Chantal redeveloped in the EC, as did Isidore

It is all about the atmospheric parameters. As for the genesis maps, I would not be the least bit surprised if many of those that just happened to form just east of the islands really formed in the EC and that there was only an MLC before reaching the islands.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

the SAL also often does not help things in the EC... often times we have screaing low level easterlies due to the SAL.

Also, Alpha, Gamma, Ernesto, Claudette, Mindy developed in the EC and Chantal redeveloped in the EC, as did Isidore

It is all about the atmospheric parameters. As for the genesis maps, I would not be the least bit surprised if many of those that just happened to form just east of the islands really formed in the EC and that there was only an MLC before reaching the islands.

But you must admit that significantly less form just west of the islands then do east. As for whether they were not really tropical cyclones at the time, there certainly has been enough data in that area for a very long time to support the currently positioned areas of genesis. In fact, better data would have probably placed the genesis even further east, not further west.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure about that CBS

We have seen in recent years that many things that looked like TCs east of the islands never became TCs until they moved into the EC. Chantal, Claudette, Dennis, and Ernesto are the best examples of this