Invest 99L Thread #6

[Sanibel]

It will lose it if it doesn't refire soon. Right now it still appears to have a convection-less core.

[cheezyWXguy]

dont give it up yet...as of the last frame, a small dot of the 1st orange in a couple hours has formed west of the suspect center

[philnyc]

There have certainly been cases of a wave making an inauspicious trot across the eastern Carribean before forming in the 80-85 W area. The second paragraphs of the reports on Hermine (1980) and Diane (1990) are vaguely familiar to the situation of the past three days (see also Dolly (1996)).

The system does have a bit of a TCHP maximum (TCHP chart) to run over as it makes its approach to that area, and it should be starting to (slightly) slow down in that vicinity. With just those two items for consideration, it would have an outside shot of developing on Saturday.

The big bit of uncertainty on whether it gets that shot is the upper-level shear situation. 20-30 knots in the area between 70-80W would seem to throw the chances of development to near zero. If it somehow manages to keep something together over the next 30-36 hours, then maybe just maybe it will finally develop, but that seems like a pretty large if at this time.

Nice analysis.

[tailgater]

Ready Aim Refire soon to come.

[AnnularCane]

Coin toss. I don't ever remember seeing any system return to form from such an evaporated wave. This one seriously poofed and dried out after today's deep red bursts. I'm watching this one because if it refires it will be a first. Safe bet says no, but I won't write it off until tomorrow.

I remember back in 2004, TD2 was downgraded to a wave, at one point appeared to have completely fizzled out, and then came back and became Bonnie. Of course this one never was a TD before (as far as I know). I don't know if that would make a difference or not.

I'm still not ready to give up on it.

[wxman57]

A clue near the Yucatan. Note the convection firing in the western Caribbean now. That's the "stealth wave" that was preceding 99L across the Caribbean. It had NO convection the entire track across the Caribbean but now it's slowing down near the Yucatan and convection is firing up. 99L has a lot more energy than that wave, so watch out when it slows down in the western Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

dont give it up yet...as of the last frame, a small dot of the 1st orange in a couple hours has formed west of the suspect center

You're right. There are a couple of pixels of -50º near 14ºN and 71ºW!


Now I need to stay awake another half hour to see if it blossoms. Or maybe I won't.

[srainhoutx]

A clue near the Yucatan. Note the convection firing in the western Caribbean now. That's the "stealth wave" that was preceding 99L across the Caribbean. It had NO convection the entire track across the Caribbean but now it's slowing down near the Yucatan and convection is firing up. 99L has a lot more energy than that wave, so watch out when it slows down in the western Caribbean.

Exactly what I have thought for 2 days now wxman57. That feature near the Yucatan has been a good indicator for 99L.

[Ptarmigan]

A clue near the Yucatan. Note the convection firing in the western Caribbean now. That's the "stealth wave" that was preceding 99L across the Caribbean. It had NO convection the entire track across the Caribbean but now it's slowing down near the Yucatan and convection is firing up. 99L has a lot more energy than that wave, so watch out when it slows down in the western Caribbean.

If I recall, Hurricane Rita of 2005 came from a "stealth wave" that was set off by a frontal boundary.

[vaffie]

It's worth noting that the majority of model tracks (including the statistical ones, the BAM models, etc.) now take it into the Bay of Campeche--11 tracks I counted. So far none of them take it towards the Texas coastline, but with every model run, they move more north, so that 6-8 of them are now at about Tampico or north of it. Several of them are stalling it/drifting westward there now, including the WRF and GFDL. About the same number (10-11) take it into Nicaragua/Honduras, but that number is dropping with every model run. Based on what I read this afternoon from the Texas AFDs, the global models are also now trending towards a weaker high pressure over the south central states at the time this thing enters the Gulf. People on the Texas and Louisiana coasts I think should really be paying attention to this in a couple days in case the high in the western Gulf does break down.

You can look at the models yourself by clicking on this link: http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/
Then click on the button "Click here to start interactive mapping", then uncheck the other boxes and check the box "all models". Then pan to the left.

[RL3AO]

This has to be close to cat 3 strength.

[srainhoutx]

A clue near the Yucatan. Note the convection firing in the western Caribbean now. That's the "stealth wave" that was preceding 99L across the Caribbean. It had NO convection the entire track across the Caribbean but now it's slowing down near the Yucatan and convection is firing up. 99L has a lot more energy than that wave, so watch out when it slows down in the western Caribbean.

If I recall, Hurricane Rita of 2005 came from a "stealth wave" that was set off by a frontal boundary.

Rita was further N than 99L. Passed S of Lower Keys in the FL Starights.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Ithink the convection is firing near the center again i think????????

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[cheezyWXguy]

Ithink the convection is firing near the center again i think????????

are you from the department of redundancy department? lol

[HouTXmetro]

The "structure" looks good to me even though there is minimum convection. Anyone care to elaborate?

[philnyc]

A clue near the Yucatan. Note the convection firing in the western Caribbean now. That's the "stealth wave" that was preceding 99L across the Caribbean. It had NO convection the entire track across the Caribbean but now it's slowing down near the Yucatan and convection is firing up. 99L has a lot more energy than that wave, so watch out when it slows down in the western Caribbean.

I noticed that too wxman57. Thanks for putting up good posts, consistently.

[mgpetre]

Yes, RL3AHO, I think that is definately an eye developing, this storm is probably at least a Cat 3 or 4 by now!

LOL, sarcasm is good at times like this, but if this does spin back up near the Yucatan, please don't joke, cause then it's going to destroy some lives in some way or another. I think some of us aren't necessarily wishers for big storms, but we do like to think of the worst case scenario in order to keep ourselves interested and on our toes. This storm still has potential and obviously warrants watching. None of us know for sure...

[RL3AO]

Not much popping in the new shot.

[Normandy]

Evening Thoughts,
Couple of things I wanted you guys to consider when discussing further development of this system. Shear (while talking about it is appropriate) is not a "death-bell" for future developent of this system. Many, many, and I mean many a system as developed under high shear. Of course shear might keep it from rapidly deepening, but from slowly developing? Nah. Remember, we are talking about a tropical wave, not a major hurricane. Its not like shear is going to weaken this thing anymore than it already is.

Next thing I wanted to mention is its forward speed....I don't know if you guys see the same thing as me, but I think it is slowing down a *bit*...its still flying westward but I feel that yesterday at this time it was just racing westward (as evidenced by the convection acting as if it were a derecho moreso than a tropical wave). It appears as if its not moving as fast as it was last night.

I think, before we proclaim this wave dead, is realize that it did have a big day today (and even I need to realize this before degrading this wave to nothing). It had a huge convective burst, formed a nice MLC, and has a very impressive outflow pattern. Now, if it develops a deep burst again tonight, it could get a low level circulation tomorrow.