Trough in Caribbean

[tailgater]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
NOW APPEARS TO BE W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXACT WAVE POSN REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE THAT HAS PERSISTED
FURTHER E NEAR THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...A WWD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS STILL
EVIDENT IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT WHERE THE CURRENT AXIS IS
PLACED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 15N.
I was just noticing on the Visible loop that this wave@ 63W has some cyclonic turning to it just west of the Leeward Islands, it has almost no moisture( barely forming clouds) with it at this time but should be headed into a more favorable enviroment over the next few days. It's getting to that time of year. It should book it, due west.

It's really hard to see right now, so use your imagination.

[tailgater]

AFD from SAN JUAN this morning.
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS.
Radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Nimbus]

Pretty good flare up of showers over the islands this morning but I don't see much vorticity near the convection. The ULL above it appears to be moving back north so the eastern Caribbean will be under an anticyclone. Of course without the shear from the ULL this wave should quiet down till it gets further west.

[vaffie]

Interesting to watch. I just noticed it.

[Fego]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST TUE AUG 7 2007

.UPDATE...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE SHORT TERM WINDS AND MODIFY WEATHER TO AGREE BETTER WITH
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA...BUT NO CHANGES
NECESSARY BEYOND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM AST FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
WELL AS EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...AS CAN BE NOTED IN LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM AST TUE AUG 7 2007/

SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO
PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

DISCUSSION (6:50 a.m.)
...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NAM AND THE GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD VALUES OF OMEGA OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This has my attention...if the convection persists
even if it is ULL driven it may be able to
become its own and start something...

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep this is what I've been talking about in another thread.

This has my attention...if the convection persists
even if it is ULL driven it may be able to
become its own and start something...

[tailgater]

The area I was talking about earlier is now over PR and heading towards the Dominican Republic so I doubt it will amount to much but there is some pretty good Vorticity in the Windward Islands which probably stands a better chance of getting organized.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF

[tailgater]

The area I was talking about earlier is now over PR and heading towards the Dominican Republic so I doubt it will amount to much but there is some pretty good Vorticity in the Windward Islands which probably stands a better chance of getting organized.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF

The title of this thread sould read Trough in the Carribean, if one of the Mods could help me out.
This trough extends from just north of Haiti/DR border southward to South America.
This is where I see the most vorticity, but something could spin up anywhere along this trough.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... Hr819x.jpg

[cycloneye]

The title of this thread sould read Trough in the Carribean, if one of the Mods could help me out.

Done.

[Sanibel]

Too weak

[SouthFloridawx]

This is related to the following thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96786

[tailgater]

Too weak

Maybe, maybe not these bad preforming models think it's something to watch at least.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... slp&loop=1

[TheShrimper]

There is definately some cyclonic turning at 16N-65W. MLC at the moment. Caribbean Vis. Loop zoomed depicts this well.

[TheRingo]

any chance this wave behind the trough catches up with it?

[tailgater]

Well since there are now 4 or 5 threads about this same feature I guess I'll start post on one of those.

[Stratosphere747]

Well since there are now 4 or 5 threads about this same feature I guess I'll start post on one of those.

I'd keep it in here tailgater.. IMO you picked up on the actual wave that some of the other threads are talking about.

[ROCK]

where are we supposed to post? in the CMC thread or this one? Is this the same feature that the CMC, NAM, Euro are picking up on? Sorry if I am confused here.

[Stratosphere747]

where are we supposed to post? in the CMC thread or this one? Is this the same feature that the CMC, NAM, Euro are picking up on? Sorry if I am confused here.

LOL. So am I Rock.

I have seen the model threads, but believe that tailgater's initial post was picking up on the actual wave the models develop.

[Weatherfreak14]

Shear tendencey has the shear lessening in the North-Western Carribean but shear is very high in the gulf of mexico right now