System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Aric Dunn]

ok the cmc is scary it has like 4 system at one time.. and brings the Caribbean system into brownsville

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


now it has decided to develop something near DR near where that ULL is now

[Meso]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
12z CMC RUN

[lrak]

I don't see anything in the records for upper-Texas coast landfalls in mid-August. Allen is probably the closest, but it still only made it to the Texas-Mexico border. Plus, the rainy season is over and the high pressure ridge always seems to spare it at this time of year.

June and September are the most dangerous part of the season for Texas.

History suggests otherwise:

* July 20, 1909 -- destroyed one half of Velasco, TX
* Aug. 16, 1915 -- Large hurricane hits Galveston
* July 25-29, 1943 -- Cat-1 hurricane hits Houston
* Aug. 3, 1970 -- Celia, one of worst to ever hit Texas, hits Corpus Christi
* Aug. 9, 1980 -- Allen, one of the LARGEST hurricanes ever, hits just north of Brownsville
* Aug. 18, 1983 -- Cat-3 Alicia hits the Galveston/Houston area
* Aug. 19-22, 1999 -- Bret hits near King Ranch. Was a Cat-4 at one point

The amazing thing about Allen is that he was so big that there were still gusts as high as 37mph in Houston at IAH (which was on the far northern reaches of the storm...over 250 miles away from the center), and at Houston-Ellington there were gusts to 40mph! That's pretty crazy for a storm hitting near Brownsville!

**This data is according to the Old Farmers Almanac "Weather History" page**

I lived in Corpus during Allen and the highest we got was around 90mph sustained. I was scared.

[Steve]

>>I lived in Corpus during Allen and the highest we got was around 90mph sustained. I was scared.

The EPAC storm was Ibis or Ida, right? I'm pretty sure it was an "I" storm if not. I remember seeing that photo in the local paper. It was pretty scary (though not as scary as Gilbert looked later on).



Still scares me to this day.

[Aric Dunn]

isis

[clfenwi]

NCEP's model diganostic discussion has some commentary on this.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
135 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

VALID AUG 10/1200 UTC THRU AUG 14/0000 UTC

MODEL TRENDS...

...LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...

REGARDING ITS POSITION...THE 00Z/12Z NAM ARE QUITE SIMILAR BY
13/12Z...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN APPEARS A BIT MORE BULLISH
SPINNING THIS SYSTEM UP AND IS TRENDING DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN.

RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS APPEAR MINOR.

MODELS TRENDS AND PREFERENCES...

...LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...

NAM REMAINS THE MORE BULLISH MEMBER OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.
THE UKMET LIKE THE GFS INDICATES A TROPICAL WAVE...WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION BUT WEAKER THAN THE NAM AND
THE CMC TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CMC APPEARS TO HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...AT LEAST THRU MON MORNING. SEE THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC
CONCERNING THE CURRENT STATUS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Steve]

>>isis

Yeah, that's right. I'm assuming (without looking it up) that 1980 must have been an El Nino year with the fact the EPAC was up to storm #9 as Allen (storm #1) was heading toward Texas and Mexico.

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

Im watching the NW carrib east of honduras much more closely! there is some pretty distinct broad turning taking shape! we should still see the convection increase in that area ( which it is starting too) thru the rest of the day.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Aric Dunn]

here is the 12z UKmet it does not develop the system but what is show is the system coming off africa and the brumuda high building in towards the early part of next week.. which should allow whatever becomes of the carribean system to move w to wnw

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Nimbus]

I'm still trying to figure out where a circulation center might form in the next 48 hours. The area Derek mentioned earlier has been drifting WNW in a lower shear environment closer to where the caribbean ridge axis will form. The Bahamas ULL is still fanning the convection up near Jamaica but will retreat a little as the ridge forms. Could all come together tonight during the diurnal max.

The CMC should be sending us its ear pretty soon

[Aric Dunn]

I'm still trying to figure out where a circulation center might form in the next 48 hours. The area Derek mentioned earlier has been drifting WNW in a lower shear environment closer to where the caribbean ridge axis will form. The Bahamas ULL is still fanning the convection up near Jamaica but will retreat a little as the ridge forms. Could all come together tonight during the diurnal max.

The CMC should be sending us its ear pretty soon

yes its all going to move towards the western carrib and NW carrib and combine. no circulation anymore near columbia.. the greatest vort and the only turning is NE of honduras

and the upper ridge is already in place in the western carrib

[RL3AO]

is this an invest yet

lol...theres barely anything out there yet...trust me, youll know when its an invest..this board will be flying

Then what is it doing now? We are on page 24 for a wave.

[Aric Dunn]

is this an invest yet

lol...theres barely anything out there yet...trust me, youll know when its an invest..this board will be flying

Then what is it doing now? We are on page 24 for a wave.

lol funny .. good point.

some people dont find it important to follow the waves and blobs .... but if we dont then how would you know if anything was going to form or become and invest.. i love this part of the tropics

[Aric Dunn]

New 18z 925mb vort map





and the 12z NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation






http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... 16vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

convection increasing around the broad turning .. associated with the trough axis

[Derek Ortt]

Then what is it doing now? We are on page 24 for a wave.

On page 24 for 2 cumulus clouds. Some are really desperate to be in a hurricane it seems. Nobody has also mentioned that the models are less aggressive with this system this afternoon than previously

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Yurpian model says weak TC near Beaumont, as manly storm heading West towards the US

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12


Convection increasing?? I'm not seeing anything like that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yurpian steering would suggest a Katrina/Andrew type South Florida to Central Gulf path...

[Coredesat]

That isn't a TC in the GOM on that model image. It's a weak low pressure area. The only TC there is NE of the islands, and even then, this is a 192 hr image, which is unreliable at best.

This wave has pretty much gone poof. There was no low pressure area and few of the models were developing anything here.