CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tracyswfla]

00
WTNT44 KNHC 141433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.

DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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[Javlin]

Since when did Avila become the most aggressive forecaster at the NHC? Up to 95 knots...and he has relocated the center into the deep convection...

The QSCAT pass was some pretty heavy evidence I would guess...interested to read the discussion.

STEVE said...

"I'm going to Florida!
And then it's Georgia!
And then I'm heading to Alabama, South Carolina, Virginia and Michigan!!!!"

AIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEE

Perfect! Nicely done, Steve. Never have a political ramble and a tropical cyclone forecast statement fit together so perfectly...

MW

Took me a little while there Stevo,Good.Still in the Easy?Kevin

[Chacor]

320
FKNT24 KNHC 141433
TCANT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070814/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: DEAN
NR: 005
PSN: N1142 W03924
MOV: W 20KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 141800 N1145 W04042
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 150000 N1148 W04200
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 150600 N1148 W04348
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 151200 N1148 W04536
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
NXT MSG: 20070814/2100Z


$$

[Brent]

BAD track for the NE Caribbean:

[alan1961]

if it dont start the curve north by about 50W it looks like trouble for FLA.

[Weatherfreak000]

Not going to be a fish for the U.S. if this new track verifies.

And if it shifts again to the South, you can all but take it to the bank.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Climo climo climo. Wait for it...climo. What in the overall pattern goes against the climotology on this one? Trough coming down over upper midwest in 5 days will be the determining factor is my bet. Close brush with the northern islands, then a 60/40 chance of recurve vs. eastern US landfall. How much will it erode teh subtropical ridge? More= recurve less = EC threat. I think the first domino to fall will be the ULL over the great lakes and how fast it moves to the NE. It would either help back up the ridge building in or alow the door to open for a recurve IMHO.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007081400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Extremeweatherguy]

the problem with that "historical" map is that Dean is on the very southern end of those tracks. Historically, those southern end storms did not recurve.

[KBBOCA]

Definitely a bad track for some of the islands.

Dominica (just south of butterfly-shaped Guadeloupe) looks to be in the bullseye. And so do the US Virgin Islands, and of course PR.

Still lots of time for this to shift, but obviously, given that the NHC advisory specifically mentions the threat to the lesser Antilles, this is something that is very serious for them. Hang in there friends.

[Wx_Warrior]

When's the next model run?

[k4sdi]

I hate to take up bandwidth asking this because I know its been asked and answered, but I can't find it.

At what point will they start flying recon?

Do the models take in that data, making them , in effect, more accurate?

Thanks!

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree, we are only a few days away from having to watch these features over the mainland United States. Rather than watch silly GFS runs you should be watching how these troughs play out. Many times have I seen a sucker trough never happen and the storm just move west all the way through the Caribbean.


Unfortunately now, even as much as I hate to toot the S. Florida Wishcaster's horns. (Please if you live in S. Florida don't be offended and respond to that.) but a Katrina-Like strike across it seems to be the most likely scenario.

However, if the trough is stronger then anticipated, Dean will still be a threat to NC and Bermuda. I also can't see why this storm wouldn't pull a surprise and go RIGHT under S.FL into the Gulf.

For anyone who understands, we're about to enter the big timing game.

[cycloneye]

When's the next model run?

12z GFS starts rolling at 11:30 AM EDT.

[x-y-no]

I hate to take up bandwidth asking this because I know its been asked and answered, but I can't find it.

At what point will they start flying recon?

Do the models take in that data, making them , in effect, more accurate?

Thanks!

55W

Yes

[gatorcane]

When's the next model run?

12z GFS starts rolling at 11:30 AM EDT.

Luis your heart must be sinking now -- if things happen as forecasted, Puerto Rico may get a hit they have not seen in a long time...

My condolences are already going out to you and the Leeward islands.

[caneseddy]

Time to call my family in PR and let them know to prepare for a Cat 2-Cat 4 storm coming their way

That track that's coming from the SW to PR is too similar to the San Felipe Hurricane of 1928, which cut right through the island as a Cat 5 and we all know where it ended up afterwards and what it did (not to suggest that the end game, as JB likes to say, will be similar)

It's too early to worry here in South Florida but just in case, I'll go to the store later this week to pick up some extra supplies, even though we've stocked up already

The important thing is for our friends in the islands to be ready

[cycloneye]

Time to call my family in PR and let them know to prepare for a Cat 2-Cat 4 storm coming their way

That track that's coming from the SW to PR is too similar to the San Felipe Hurricane of 1928, which cut right through the island as a Cat 5 and we all know where it ended up afterwards and what it did

It's too early to worry here in South Florida but just in case, I'll go to the store later this week to pick up some extra supplies, even though we've stocked up already

The important thing is for our friends in the islands to be ready

Same here.I hope that it tracks away from here.but if not,I will be prepared with my family.

[gatorcane]

Time to call my family in PR and let them know to prepare for a Cat 2-Cat 4 storm coming their way

That track that's coming from the SW to PR is too similar to the San Felipe Hurricane of 1928, which cut right through the island as a Cat 5 and we all know where it ended up afterwards and what it did (not to suggest that the end game, as JB likes to say, will be similar)

It's too early to worry here in South Florida but just in case, I'll go to the store later this week to pick up some extra supplies, even though we've stocked up already

The important thing is for our friends in the islands to be ready

it may not be too early. All too often tracks like this through Puerto Rico and the Leeward islands this time of year end up in South Florida -- if you look back at the 1920s-1940s (a period that I believe we are back in now).

there is no reason for that cone to bend out to sea at this point I'm afraid...

[Evil Jeremy]

OT, but arnt we suppoused to lock this topic up and make a new one, as to the new system, 1 topic for TD, 1 for TS, 1 for Hurricane, and 1 for Major?

[storms in NC]

It is not that far south only by .3 It will do that. It will go back and forthBut I don't see it going WSW just will not happen.JIMO only