CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[storms in NC]

Barring a westward jog it should pass north of the forecast point

True, but as we all know jogs do not matter, trends do . .

Know jogs all to well this is more than a Jog.IMO

I just don't want the Island to get hit bad. So yes a Big turn would be nice for them. I will keep them in my prayers.

[windstorm99]

Herbert box has been added to the models

[hial2]

Barring a westward jog it should pass north of the forecast point

Do not trust motion by the NHC guide points...I've noticed they adjust them..an accurate way is to write down the longitude and latitude of the guide points at this time and compare with the new ones hours down the line..

[jasons2k]

>>Who says that Dean has not tried to reform its center several times before? By the time a storm starts to "gell" or intensify, it will start moving more poleward, not due west like some of the models are showing, like the GFDL into Central America and GFS into Mexico.

You've been fighting a battle for an east coast storm for the last two days. It might happen. It might not. I have no idea. But every post (I'm not going to copy and paste them all), you keep finding a way to implicate Dean as an east coast system.

Steve

And you don't think that everyone of your posts tries to implicate Dean as a GOM system? Please...
There are several other people on this board who think what I am thinking.

Jeff masters:
"No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be."

Since you do live near the GOM, shouldn't you be more focused on TS Erin?

Arrgghhhh. Let the battle begin: GOM vs. Atlantic (GOM currently has homecourt advantage according to the models, but that does not necessarily imply it will win ).

Please, spare us. Steve is about as much a straight-shooter as there is. He bases his forecasts on sound, hard data, not where his location is. Those of us who have read his posts over the years know this, without question. If Steve is want-casting, he'll be the first to admit it as he has done so in the past. He knows where to draw the line and he states as much. But hey, he can defend himself....

Who says that Dean has not tried to reform its center several times before?
By the time a storm starts to "gell" or intensify, it will start moving more poleward, not due west like some of the models are showing, like the GFDL into Central America and GFS into Mexico.

Umm, I think we can all agree that unless something drastic changes, Dean now has an established core UNLIKE Ernesto at the time of his many, many LLC relocations. What Dean may or may have done in the past is now history and he clearly hasn't moved or relocated to the north, unlike Ernesto. There just is no comparison here. The question for Dean now is how strong will he get and how will the ridge/trough(s) impact him down the line, not whether or not he reforms another center and causes all the models to jump NE. That just isn't going to happen unless Dean crashes straight into Hispaniola and falls apart.

"By the time it finally gelled, it was too late for it to move west."
I respectfully disagree, its the other way around. It is never too late for a storm to start moving POLEWARD as it begins to "Gell" or intensify.

Did you not read what I wrote? I didn't say it was too late to move poleward, I said it was too late for it to move WESTWARD. Big difference.

[deltadog03]

Luis I agree with you. Its pretty close if not already there at 13N. Like I think a few of us are saying..if you look at the entire CDO, as a whole, its moving near 290.

[windstorm99]

Max mayfield will be doing a special on dean tonight at 8pm along with don noe.

Channel 10.

[Wx_Warrior]

Can someone post UKMET link...i'm lost after lunch

[jhamps10]

Max mayfield will be doing a special on dean tonight at 8pm along with don noe.

Channel 10.

a little overhyping are we Max?

anyway to be honest that's not a bad idea, it should get people preparing just in case.

[msbee]

Barring a westward jog it should pass north of the forecast point

Hmm!
how far North is my question?

[Steve]

>>And you don't think that everyone of your posts tries to implicate Dean as a GOM system? Please...

Please what? The original Destruction, DESTRUCTION5 (mixed you guys up) got a PM from me today telling him after going after "his" NC/MD posts last night, I went after some "GULF! GULF! GULF!" posts. I've come right out and said I have no idea what Dean is going to do and continuously beg posters on this site not to statecast (a term I invented back in 2004 or 2005). If the search feature was up, I would prove it to you via last night's material.

And I'll tell you again, I'm not on any bandwagon and have no statecasting agenda for Dean. I have no idea what he is going to do. I think it's got equal chances of recurving, hittting Central America or some points in between.

>>There are several other people on this board who think what I am thinking.

I'm not discounting those possibilities either. It's jsut that year after year, certain posters stick out when there is a tropical threat. Maybe you haven't been on this site since 2001 or whatever, maybe you have, but there are serious state casting battles. Any long term members know what I'm talking about and why I at least try to discourage it.

>>Since you do live near the GOM, shouldn't you be more focused on TS Erin?

I had it pegged from Sunday night or Monday early AM. I might have been a little far south (said South Padre - Corpus as a midgrade 50-60mph TS with outside chance of tightening/intensification at landfall). So my work with that sucker is done unless it throws us for a loop.

>>Arrgghhhh. Let the battle begin: GOM vs. Atlantic (GOM currently has homecourt advantage according to the models, but that does not necessarily imply it will win )

NO BATTLES. PLEASE. Seriously. It's obvious that it's going to happen, but that stuff really gets in the way of legitimate discussion and all of us actually learning from each other.

Steve

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The model also seems to start with it at a lower intensity than it appears to currently be and also maintains it as a weak system through most of the run, only achieving moderate status occasionally. If Dean starts to RI, this model will be worthless.

[Sanibel]

Ooo boy. If I'm reading this right I'm seeing intensification jerks in the eye motion. (Not good)

[cycloneye]

Can someone post UKMET link...i'm lost after lunch

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ukmet.txt

[storms in NC]

Ooo boy. If I'm reading this right I'm seeing intensification jerks in the eye motion. (Not good)

I think you are right. It will but a cat 1 by 11 PM tonight.

[mf_dolphin]

Looks to me like it jumped a little north as the center got better defined but it appears to have resumed an almost due west movement. We'll all be watching the weebles and woobles a little closer now but the trend over time is what's really important.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ooo boy. If I'm reading this right I'm seeing intensification jerks in the eye motion. (Not good)

Yep looks that way to me. Soon the dry will be pushed out and I'd bet the CDO will clear out and Dean will be looking back at us.

[Tropics Guy]

Looking at the Visible shot, Dean looks to be moving more north of due west now, if this trend keeps up, we'll be seeing the models trend north later today or tonight.

TG

[Scorpion]

Not sure what the pressure is here..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think CAT 1 by 5pm is possible if a good Quikscat can show reason for it and satellite presentation is good. Shouldn't we be going into the Diurnal Min. right now?

[deltadog03]

12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT


Ok, I by any means am trying to start or pick any fights.... This is the 11am adv. for the 11pm tonight position. I honestly feel that Dean is very very near 13.0N already. Now, I think that should be a little proof that this 290 or so motion has been a trend and not wobbling. Now** that dosn't mean it has to continue moving 290 either. What do yall think?>