CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jhamps10]

Ooo boy. If I'm reading this right I'm seeing intensification jerks in the eye motion. (Not good)

I think you are right. It will but a cat 1 by 11 PM tonight.

your giving it that long.... the way it's going, we could have a cane at 5. but 11 for sure.

[Opal storm]

As the storm gets stronger it will continue to have sudden jogs, typical of many strong hurricanes.

[x-y-no]

Max mayfield will be doing a special on dean tonight at 8pm along with don noe.

Channel 10.

a little overhyping are we Max?

anyway to be honest that's not a bad idea, it should get people preparing just in case.

Well, I'd say if you hire Max Mayfield, you want to use him. It's probably more the station management that would like to hype. I trust Mayfield and Noe to keep a lid on that, though.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The envelope seems to be getting more "moist" as well.

[artist]

Max mayfield will be doing a special on dean tonight at 8pm along with don noe.

Channel 10.

a little overhyping are we Max?

anyway to be honest that's not a bad idea, it should get people preparing just in case.

Would he be doing that if he thought it wasn't going to possibly come our way?
I feel less sure it will miss us now.

Sheesh - 6 new posts before I could get this in - or maybe - who knows!

[x-y-no]

As the storm gets stronger it will continue to have sudden jogs, typical of many strong hurricanes.

Exactly. Stronger storms will move with a sine-wave type track.

[deltadog03]

I really don't see this as jumping. Its been that way for awhile now.

[jhamps10]

Max mayfield will be doing a special on dean tonight at 8pm along with don noe.

Channel 10.

a little overhyping are we Max?

anyway to be honest that's not a bad idea, it should get people preparing just in case.

Well, I'd say if you hire Max Mayfield, you want to use him. It's probably more the station management that would like to hype. I trust Mayfield and Noe to keep a lid on that, though.

I agree that Max always keeps a lid on overhyping. But if this trend continues of going at 290, SFL will REALLY need to watch this extra close.

[windstorm99]

Just saw a CNN mentioning the jog to the north a few minutes ago...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT


Ok, I by any means am trying to start or pick any fights.... This is the 11am adv. for the 11pm tonight position. I honestly feel that Dean is very very near 13.0N already. Now, I think that should be a little proof that this 290 or so motion has been a trend and not wobbling. Now** that dosn't mean it has to continue moving 290 either. What do yall think?>

Not only do they have the northern component off, but the intensity will probably prove stronger than what they thought it would be by then.

[vacanechaser]

Looks to me like it jumped a little north as the center got better defined but it appears to have resumed an almost due west movement. We'll all be watching the weebles and woobles a little closer now but the trend over time is what's really important.

i dont see the west movement yet.. still looks to be heading north of west to me..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jhamps10]

Not sure what the pressure is here..

sub 960 at least, that's the closest number my eyes could see. Maybe 950 or lower.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

As the storm gets stronger it will continue to have sudden jogs, typical of many strong hurricanes.

Exactly. Stronger storms will move with a sine-wave type track.

Stronger storms will, I agree. So why is this mere Tropical Storm doing so? I think it si more than just a jog that is typical for big storms.

[Scorpion]

Latest HWRF has it around 915-920 landfalling at Jamaica

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is it me or are we all trying to play miracle worker on the track after 5 days this year...Id say 99% of the time the 5 day is not even close!

[Rainband]

BACK ON TOPIC Please!!!

[storms in NC]

>>And you don't think that everyone of your posts tries to implicate Dean as a GOM system? Please...

Please what? The original Destruction, DESTRUCTION5 (mixed you guys up) got a PM from me today telling him after going after "his" NC/MD posts last night, I went after some "GULF! GULF! GULF!" posts. I've come right out and said I have no idea what Dean is going to do and continuously beg posters on this site not to statecast (a term I invented back in 2004 or 2005). If the search feature was up, I would prove it to you via last night's material.

And I'll tell you again, I'm not on any bandwagon and have no statecasting agenda for Dean. I have no idea what he is going to do. I think it's got equal chances of recurving, hittting Central America or some points in between.

>>There are several other people on this board who think what I am thinking.

I'm not discounting those possibilities either. It's jsut that year after year, certain posters stick out when there is a tropical threat. Maybe you haven't been on this site since 2001 or whatever, maybe you have, but there are serious state casting battles. Any long term members know what I'm talking about and why I at least try to discourage it.

>>Since you do live near the GOM, shouldn't you be more focused on TS Erin?

I had it pegged from Sunday night or Monday early AM. I might have been a little far south (said South Padre - Corpus as a midgrade 50-60mph TS with outside chance of tightening/intensification at landfall). So my work with that sucker is done unless it throws us for a loop.

>>Arrgghhhh. Let the battle begin: GOM vs. Atlantic (GOM currently has homecourt advantage according to the models, but that does not necessarily imply it will win )

NO BATTLES. PLEASE. Seriously. It's obvious that it's going to happen, but that stuff really gets in the way of legitimate discussion and all of us actually learning from each other.

Steve

You can have it. I sure don't want it to come my way that is for darn sure. Right now I am just praying it don't go to the Islands. I know it is but I am still praying that it don't. Too many people that it can hurt down there.

[Opal storm]

Is it me or are we all trying to play miracle worker on the track after 5 days this year...Id say 99% of the time the 5 day is not even close!

So you think this will totally miss the 5-day cone?

[RL3AO]

Hello guys. I see the track has really shifted south.

[EyELeSs1]

visible eye is another 12-18 hrs?