CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

Looks VERY close to a hurricane, if it's not already.

Can't wait for recon tomorrow.

[Aquawind]

If there is an eye forming, then it could be a wobble... you know how those are.
Looks like it's time to open up the wobble watcher thread.

Possible.. I just sat down and saw the loop for the first in a few hours and clearly the motion was more northerly than I have see on any graphic. Wobble talk is highly annoying stuff. I am just gonna sit and watching for awhile since you brough that up..

[Scorpion]

Look at this loop
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

You can see the pronounced WNW motion

[Derek Ortt]

looks a little worse on the IR, but the outflow and overall circulation are becoming better defined.

I think it entrained some dry air this afternoon, which has put the crimps on it. Therefore, I do not expect hurricane until tomorrow morning when this should begin to undergo RI

[drezee]

IMO, Dean is likely a hurricane!

[OURAGAN]

The track is already to the north of the NHC TRACK

[Aquawind]

Deviation??? Um...well it remains to be seen IF*** it has any effect on the eventually track. BUT** for those of you who thinks this is a wobble NW or whatever...take a little look harder. This has been like this for the past 6+ hrs.

If that is the case the forecasts will change..even if temporarily.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I hate to say that the recon flying in tomorrow probably won't get the tracks too much better. It will be the info come the weekend that will matter more. The trough and ridge strength data will be the critical determinants I believe.

Of course, all recon will aid somewhat.

[k4sdi]

I remember seeing several pages ago a list of what time each model comes out. Does anyone know where that was? I've looked and looked, but I can't find it.

Thanks!

[OURAGAN]

the next advisory will be shifted north a bit

[windstorm99]

Look at this loop
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

You can see the pronounced WNW motion

Wow...You can really see it there.

[drezee]

Dean is making the fist...I coined the phrase many years ago...

This is an explosion of convection that wraps around the center and forms an eye in 12-24 hours or less. This indicates rapid intensification! Dean will be a hurricane very soon.

TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

It can be surmised that the NHC is forecasting Dean to attain hurricane status at 16/1800z or 39 hours from now. Given that the fist is forming, I would give less than 24 hours as stated above. Maybe even by 1500z tomorrow! 0300z at the latest...

I stand by the statement last night...even with the dry air!

[mitchell]

What does JB sayon the update posted on accuwx right now...I cant play the video on my computer

agrees with NHC track on dean
thinks erin intensifys a bit more than NHC

[Steve]

Good loop Scorpion. Clearly if the climb continues, it's a whole new ballgame as to whether anyone gets affected.

Good stuff. I'm going to save that link as I didn't have it before.

Steve

[Buck]

Yes, I'm praying for everyone that could potentially be affected. Even Emily in 2005 as a tropical storm was horrible to Grenada... Dean could be pretty rough.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Good loop Scorpion. Clearly if the climb continues, it's a whole new ballgame as to whether anyone gets affected.

Good stuff. I'm going to save that link as I didn't have it before.

Steve

Yes that was an eyepopping loop there..

[marcane_1973]

looks a little worse on the IR, but the outflow and overall circulation are becoming better defined.

I think it entrained some dry air this afternoon, which has put the crimps on it. Therefore, I do not expect hurricane until tomorrow morning when this should begin to undergo RI

I was just about to ask what is wrong with the West side side because there sure is no problem with the East. On that visible satellite you can clearly see that some dry air has been sucked in on the West and Southwest side of the storm. Overall it still looks pretty decent for the pace that it is moving and I agree that this will be a Hurricane sometime tomorrow. It looks like Dean is trying to form any eye.

[ronjon]

Interesting:

TROPICAL STORM DEAN...THE NHC TRACK HAS SPED UP SINCE YESTERDAY
AND IS NOW ABOUT A DAY FASTER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE AS A POTENT
HURRICANE. THIS COULD BRING DEAN FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SRN
GULF OF MEX BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERALL PRETTY
ERATIC LATELY BUT THIS TRACK SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE
TREND OF MUCH RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT IS ON A MORE
SOUTHWARD SHIFTED TRACK OVER THEIR PAST DAY WORTH OF RUNS.
GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONSIDERING
THE STORMS FUTURE BUT SOME 06 AND 12 UTC GUIDANCE TENDS ON THE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORIES CONCERNING DEANS EXPECTED EVOLUTION FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AND OUR FINAL PROGS REFLECT ONE POSSIBLE EXTENSION
OF THOSE POINTS FOR A DAY 6/7 POSITION CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF SRN US RIDGING OVERTOP THE DANGEROUS SYSTEM AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NHC/TPC.

Progressive side meaning what?

Meaning more northly component as it approaches the GOM.

[windstorm99]

Its clearly pulling up on that loop that was posted.

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at this loop
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

You can see the pronounced WNW motion

Wow...You can really see it there.

Yeah.. I don't know if its the angle or what... we'll see at the 5:00pm advisory/disco what the case may be.

Scorpion can you post the link to the page where you can select that from... I want to see what other sat. output they have?
Thanks