CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

The track is already to the north of the NHC TRACK

Barely! And even though it's a hair north, it is still moving in the general W/WNW direction that the NHC called for in it's track forecast.

[hiflyer]

First off local tv is all about ratings....and bad weather does wonders for ratings...and in SoFla it does amazing things for ratings....yes Channel 7 is wacko...it is the Fox station down here.

Now...looking at the vapor loop on the floater ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ) Dean is climbing far more than a wobble and has been at it for hours. We all see it...some think it is quite significant (the miami press is going to abuse it... ) and some think it is just a minor move. Either way it is off track, for now, and that begs loudly that the Gulfstream flight get into the environment sooner rather than later. While it is quite a way from the US there are quite a substantial number of folks that this thing could be within just a few days of and deserve accurate info...folks that do not have the US residents ability to get anything at anytime.

Lastly...with one passing by Hawaii...one churing the Gulf...and this one.... I miss Mr Stewart and his discussions....but I do not blame him for not being inside the NHC right now with all the politics flying about....

[stormchazer]

I think the track looks farely good for this system though I believe a shift slightly to the right will happen along the way. There does not appear to be any complex features right now that add doubt to the models. The trough is not very sharp and the ridge seems firmly in control. HPC even cast doubt that the system entering the CONSUS on the West Coast will not move quickly on shore due to the strength of the ridge in the SE.

We shall see....

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

Another place to see what I am saying

[Chris_in_Tampa]

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/in ... up=tropatl

[Scorpion]

Look at this loop
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

You can see the pronounced WNW motion

Wow...You can really see it there.

Yeah.. I don't know if its the angle or what... we'll see at the 5:00pm advisory/disco what the case may be.

Scorpion can you post the link to the page where you can select that from... I want to see what other sat. output they have?
Thanks

I don't know, I saw the link to this loop on another site. Not sure what the original site is though.

[windstorm99]

Look at this loop
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

You can see the pronounced WNW motion

Wow...You can really see it there.

Yeah.. I don't know if its the angle or what... we'll see at the 5:00pm advisory/disco what the case may be.

Scorpion can you post the link to the page where you can select that from... I want to see what other sat. output they have?
Thanks

Here you go

[Aquawind]

the next advisory will be shifted north a bit

They go with the facts they have and if Dean has moved north as much as suggested they will adjust the path like any good forecaster.. This is no game to stick to their forecast..lol They just adjust in moderation.. I do think it will adjust to the right..even if it's just a tad for this next update.

[SouthFloridawx]

First off local tv is all about ratings....and bad weather does wonders for ratings...and in SoFla it does amazing things for ratings....yes Channel 7 is wacko...it is the Fox station down here.

Now...looking at the vapor loop on the floater ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ) Dean is climbing far more than a wobble and has been at it for hours. We all see it...some think it is quite significant (the miami press is going to abuse it... ) and some think it is just a minor move. Either way it is off track, for now, and that begs loudly that the Gulfstream flight get into the environment sooner rather than later. While it is quite a way from the US there are quite a substantial number of folks that this thing could be within just a few days of and deserve accurate info...folks that do not have the US residents ability to get anything at anytime.

Lastly...with one passing by Hawaii...one churing the Gulf...and this one.... I miss Mr Stewart and his discussions....but I do not blame him for not being inside the NHC right now with all the politics flying about....

Good to see you man! I agree with you totally... Looking at the CIMSS site, it looks like the ridge is being crunched by the Trough/ULL, farther north and east for the time being.
It's all going to depend on the Amplification of that trough, and how intense the shortwave pulses are along it. They should get that gulf stream out there sooner than later, but we still have plenty of time.

[Steve]

Here's their link to the tropical atlantic.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/in ... up=tropatl

Steve

[SunnyThoughts]

Scorpion....awesome loop...thanks for posting.

[decgirl66]

The news in Central Flordia is just mentioning Dean in passing, not making too big a deal about it. I get all my info on this board before I hear it on the news! Keep up the good work Storm2k!!

[Normandy]

Folks why are you using WV and IR imagery to determine motion when we have good ole visibles?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Dean has not gained as much lattitude as some are claiming here. Looking at that loop Dean moved from 45.5W to 47.5W, and moved from 12.3N to 13N. Thats 2 degrees west, .7 degrees north. Thats not even close to a NW motion.

[deltadog03]

Thanks for the link

[RL3AO]

Sorry if this has been said. NRL has Dean at 55kt, 997mb.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive outflow to the north. WOW!!!

[CronkPSU]

Look at this loop
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

You can see the pronounced WNW motion

wow, that is an impressive radar shot...like derek said, not as good as earlier today but I agree with everyone about a pronounced WNW "wobble" movement over the past several hours

[jhamps10]

Impressive outflow to the north. WOW!!!

could that be an eye starting to show on the visable shot?

[SouthFloridawx]

http://tinyurl.com/38su3e

Folks why are you using WV and IR imagery to determine motion when we have good ole visibles?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Dean has not gained as much lattitude as some are claiming here. Looking at that loop Dean moved from 45.5W to 47.5W, and moved from 12.3N to 13N. Thats 2 degrees west, .7 degrees north. Thats not even close to a NW motion.

[EyELeSs1]

i know most ppl on the forums don't think a slight rightward adjustment to the track makes a huge overall difference to the eventual track...however, for us in the islands it makes a substantial difference. I'm not feeling as confident as i was this morning thats for sure...


wobble watching seems like all we can do now....