CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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OURAGAN
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3021 Postby OURAGAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:03 pm

Dean is already at the latitude of Barbados, the next advisory will be shifted to the north
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#3022 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:04 pm

Image

Sorry for the comparison but this was what popped in my mind I saw the Dean's image!!!
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3023 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:08 pm

HAHA... I thought it looked like a baby before it was born too! I think this is going to grow up to be a big bad one though.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3024 Postby Dynamic » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:09 pm

Dean on the last 6 hours.

Image

Maybe a jog, a wooble or a new track? How much time we will need to have an answer?
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#3025 Postby Buck » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:09 pm

looks like a CDO forming.
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Re: Re:

#3026 Postby Normandy » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:10 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://tinyurl.com/38su3e
Normandy wrote:Folks why are you using WV and IR imagery to determine motion when we have good ole visibles?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Dean has not gained as much lattitude as some are claiming here. Looking at that loop Dean moved from 45.5W to 47.5W, and moved from 12.3N to 13N. Thats 2 degrees west, .7 degrees north. Thats not even close to a NW motion.



Thats another good shot, and shows a CLEAR wnw motion and nothing more. It didn't even take a NW wobble at all.

If this were moving NW, it would cross 50W at 15N....and that is absolutely NOT going to happen.
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Derek Ortt

#3027 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:11 pm

lets monitor this new convective burst near the center... if this persists, the dry air may already be moderated

with the shear next to nil, I do NOT expect much more dry air intrusion
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3028 Postby MSRobi911 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:11 pm

Thanks SouthFL

I couldn't get the other link to work at all.

Mary
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#3029 Postby k4sdi » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:12 pm

I'm thinking a new track here yall, Looping images over 24 hours show almost a sudden right turn in the last couple of hours. How long do "wobbles" usually last? This long?
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#3030 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:12 pm

I agree.. looks like the dry slot to the SW of the core is abating
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Re:

#3031 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:13 pm

Scorpion wrote:I agree.. looks like the dry slot to the SW of the core is abating


D-Max tonight will be interesting... I really think it's getting ready to take off.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3032 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:13 pm

I have to say, with my untrained eye, it looks to be moving almost due NW. :)
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3033 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:14 pm

Looks clearly WNW to me...

Will the NHC say WNW at 5pm probably not and will wait till 11pm to see if its not a wobble.Its being doing this for a while though.
Last edited by windstorm99 on Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3034 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:15 pm

tolakram wrote:I have to say, with my untrained eye, it looks to be moving almost due NW. :)


It's definitely WNW it appears, I think it will pass 50 W near 14 N though on that track.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3035 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:15 pm

Ok first of all... GFS 12zinitialized the system @ 1008 mb.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_000l.gif

The navy site has Dean @ 994mb. I don't see how in any way shape or form, that it was initilized properly. This is going to affect the model and the track.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3036 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:15 pm

Maybe a jog, a wooble or a new track? How much time we will need to have an answer?


Ohh my friend this will be the battle of the ages.. Is it a weeble or not? I have seen wobbles last more than a few hours before..at least everyone else said it was a wobble..lmao. Many a young hobbiest have broken down into the Dean fetal position over this exact issue.
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Scorpion

#3037 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:15 pm

Well the GFS is never right on intensity
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#3038 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:16 pm

I might have asked this before, but what is a CDO?
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3039 Postby ALhurricane » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:16 pm

One thing that may be leading to more of an appearance of a WNW motion than what there really is is the fact the convective envelope and associated outflow is expanding north. This is the first time we have seen the outflow become established to the north of the cyclone.

I would not get too excited on this perceived WNW motion yet. The mean steering flow over the next several days indicates primarily a west track.
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LeeJet

Re: Re:

#3040 Postby LeeJet » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:16 pm

Normandy wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:http://tinyurl.com/38su3e
Normandy wrote:Folks why are you using WV and IR imagery to determine motion when we have good ole visibles?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Dean has not gained as much lattitude as some are claiming here. Looking at that loop Dean moved from 45.5W to 47.5W, and moved from 12.3N to 13N. Thats 2 degrees west, .7 degrees north. Thats not even close to a NW motion.



Thats another good shot, and shows a CLEAR wnw motion and nothing more. It didn't even take a NW wobble at all.

If this were moving NW, it would cross 50W at 15N....and that is absolutely NOT going to happen.


Just admit that you want it to go to Texas, and stop this implicit -removed-. Everybody is doing it, and it's annoying!
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