CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[RL3AO]

To have a pinhole eye you need a complete eyewall.

[Viper54r]

To have a pinhole eye you need a complete eyewall.

Please dont let that Aric guy read this, he will burn down the board

[Coredesat]

It should be noted that the 120 hour position for Dean is 20N 87.5W, which is just off the central Yucatan Peninsula.

As for the eye, Dean has a very high forward speed (24 mph). This might be precluding the development of a full eyewall.

[James]

Discussion's out now.

[Thunder44]

If it really had a pinhole eye, it would be much stronger than 65kts. It just looks like a warm spot to me on the IR imagery.

[Coredesat]

WTNT44 KNHC 160908
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL
GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST
HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE
DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL
IS CALLING FOR 127 KT. THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE
FIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
ANALYSIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.4N 52.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 55.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.9N 63.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 66.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 87.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will see, but this thing is something you don't went to turn you back on.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER.

This from the nhc, so that is its eye.

[Coredesat]

If Dean doesn't slow down, could that upper/mid-level low east of Florida have an impact on the track or intensity?

[Coredesat]

GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER.

This from the nhc, so that is its eye.

Um, that warm spot isn't anywhere near the center. The warm spot isn't the eye.

[RL3AO]

The rest of the islands should be upgraded to warnings at 8.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

About as close as you can get to a classic banding like system forming.

[abajan]

Now, I have a few not so nice words to say about the gov'ts of Barbados and ESPECIALLY Dominica this evening. If you are in Dominica... disregard the official information and act as if you are under a Hurricane Watch, which means hurricane conditions are POSSIBLE within 36 hours. This is most certainly the case here, I have no clue what they are thinking. Barbados also should be in a watch as the storm is likely only going to pass 50-70 miles north. Residents there should be aware that ther eis an outside chance of hurricane conditions within the next 36 hours...

I totally agree, Derek.

Actually, issuing weather advisories for Dominica (and some of our other neighboring islands) used to be the responsibility of Barbados. I'm not sure if this is still the case. So the government to blame may be ours.

When I heard the estimated co-ordinates issued at 11:00PM, I was at a lost as to why we weren't put under at least a Tropical Storm Watch. At the time of writing, despite the decidedly westerly track which Dean seems to have assumed, Barbados is yet to issue any watches for itself!

We have an old, well known and oft repeated saying in Barbados that "God is a Bajan" (Bajan, pronounced: Bay-jun, is the local term for Barbadian, hence my username). I think we say it so much that over the years we (even the local Mets, apparently) have come to believe this island is invincible to any perils - even though history shows this to be false. I hope we're not in for a rude awakening this time around.

[hurricanehollis]

Thanks RL. Didn't mean to shake a bhive. But that was my first post/thread i didn't really know what i was doing. Thanks for cuttin me some slack and let's focus on Hurricane Dean. Dean is gonna hit someone. I don't wish harm on anyone but the track at the moment is better than others. It's always a catastrophe when dominica and Haiti are in the line of fire. by the way my names hollis and i'm new to the board. Im looking forward to all the info i can take and give from the board. I was met in the army a few years back . Theres still a hell of alot to learn though.

[colbroe]

Question to any one , why is iy that barbados has not been placed on a storm watch at least? The omly reason i can think of is because the center will pass just north of theisland , but look at the size of the thing

[Emmett_Brown]

If Dean doesn't slow down, could that upper/mid-level low east of Florida have an impact on the track or intensity?

I have been wondering the same thing this morning. The GFS shows the upper level low/tutt weakening and moving west just ahead of Dean:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=gfs_atlantic&prod=500&dtg=2007081512

The Nogaps shows the same thing, but a little slower, which seems to impart a more northward motion (just N of Jamaica):
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&prod=500&dtg=2007081600

Looking at the loop, it doesnt seem to be moving much at the moment, but Dean is still far away:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

What do the pro mets think... in the past i have heard chatter that models are too eager to disolve upper level lows/troughs that would otherwise shear a system. Should we believe the models this time, and assume an anti-cyclone will be aloft in 2 days, therefore ideal conditions for a major?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't know, but the government of barbados is the one making that choice, I think.

[TheShrimper]

There seems to be some uncertainty developing as to where Dean may end up. Fact are the storm is tiny, Charley like in size. The windfield reflects that. That said, why would there be watches and potential warnings hoisted for the islands of Martinique and Guadaloupe that are so far to the north? And why even bring the monitoring notion to the Virgin Islands, PR and Hisponola ? There is no reference to Aruba, Bonaire ect, which are closer both in lattitude and longitude. This really is not going to effect anyone, other that the landmass it impacts directly. If someone can explain this reasoning, inlight of the facts presented, please enlighten me.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... -nh04L.GIF


Nice pic of the develop eye.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg