CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tolakram]

iv been reading these posts for a few days but this is my first time writing.

Im wondering what causes these storms to explode in physical size. I remember katrina did it after it crossed florida.

are those conditions present with dean. Its not going to stay this compact forever will it

i would think little or no shear and nice, cozy, warm sst's. who knows, i think its kinda like the question, why does one wave form and not another under pretty much the same atmospheric conditions. JMO

A quality low level circulation to start out with is the primary factor, I believe.

[oyster_reef]

i paid $2.52 this morning in alabama

[Bgator]

When is the ULL that is loacted east of florida supposed to get out of the way its still leaving a trail all the way to DR....

[Aric Dunn]

iv been reading these posts for a few days but this is my first time writing.

Im wondering what causes these storms to explode in physical size. I remember katrina did it after it crossed florida.

are those conditions present with dean. Its not going to stay this compact forever will it

i would think little or no shear and nice, cozy, warm sst's. who knows, i think its kinda like the question, why does one wave form and not another under pretty much the same atmospheric conditions. JMO

honestly we dont know how to forecast rapid intensification .. we have a RI which is a rapid intensification index
read here http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2007/rapid.html

and there are new studies coming about about things called "hot towers" which play a big role (not proved yet)
there is a lot of research going into it right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

75kts... can't want to get the conversion on that.

281
URNT15 KNHC 161734
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 17 20070816
172600 1359N 05545W 6969 03089 9976 +098 +070 056048 049 048 007 00
172630 1358N 05543W 6970 03081 9960 +105 +070 055053 054 049 007 00
172700 1358N 05542W 6964 03084 9953 +106 +070 055054 056 047 007 00
172730 1357N 05540W 6961 03079 9928 +120 +070 052056 057 047 006 00
172800 1357N 05539W 6961 03069 9918 +118 +070 049055 059 052 006 00
172830 1356N 05537W 6970 03045 9903 +119 +070 052061 062 055 007 00
172900 1356N 05536W 6966 03035 9877 +128 +070 047065 068 058 006 00
172930 1355N 05535W 6960 03033 9857 +136 +070 048067 074 066 032 03
173000 1355N 05533W 6974 02995 9831 +138 +070 046070 072 074 020 00
173030 1354N 05532W 6956 02993 9771 +167 +070 043069 075 077 021 00
173100 1353N 05530W 6970 02942 9709 +195 +070 046056 061 078 023 00
173130 1353N 05529W 6966 02933 9707 +180 +070 068042 045 069 045 03
173200 1352N 05527W 6965 02922 9691 +184 +070 091028 034 045 007 03
173230 1351N 05527W 6975 02906 9691 +178 +070 088024 028 999 999 03
173300 1349N 05527W 6963 02920 9724 +149 +070 086007 015 018 007 03
173330 1347N 05526W 6954 02950 9714 +181 +070 251031 043 043 007 03
173400 1346N 05525W 6955 02977 9765 +161 +070 237060 076 056 006 03
173430 1345N 05523W 6973 02985 9863 +108 +067 212075 080 066 010 03
173500 1345N 05521W 6975 03015 9917 +081 +070 199075 078 067 012 03
173530 1344N 05520W 6975 03029 9945 +074 +070 196069 069 060 044 03
$$

[vacanechaser]

In case folks aren't checking the models page as well, there is significant shift in a few models now to the north.

***I would top of the gas tanks today asap... the gas prices are about to skyrocket!***

It should be mentioned that there's no historical precedent for major increases in gas prices upon the threat of a hurricane. Any increase will be small an no larger than any other typical fluctuation.

For gas prices to soar a major hurricane would have to hit the gulf coast, knocking out major refineries (like happened after Katrina).

So no worries now about gasoline prices.

i would not count on that.. funny how after the times the updates came out, and the number of storms forecast were higher and the threat to the gulf coast was higher, everytime gas prices went up and there was nothing out there at the time.. have a major hurricane bearing down on the gulf, watch them rise... not saying a huge increase, but they are going to go up, just on the threat

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

456
WHXX04 KWBC 161730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 53.3 275./21.0
6 13.9 55.3 280./20.0
12 14.3 57.3 282./19.4
18 14.5 59.6 277./22.0
24 14.7 61.8 273./21.1
30 15.1 63.8 283./20.8
36 15.2 65.8 271./18.3
42 15.4 67.5 277./17.2
48 15.8 69.3 283./17.3
54 16.2 71.1 281./17.7
60 16.6 72.9 282./18.0
66 17.0 74.7 283./17.3
72 17.6 76.5 289./18.3
78 18.2 78.5 287./19.8
84 18.8 80.1 289./16.2
90 19.5 81.8 292./17.5
96 20.4 83.3 301./17.5
102 21.4 84.8 304./17.3
108 22.6 86.2 311./17.4
114 23.8 87.7 307./17.8
120 25.0 89.1 312./17.8
126 26.2 90.5 311./17.4




12z GFDL GOM bound.

[Extremeweatherguy]

southfloridawx - there is an 80 knot report in that data set too.

[SouthFloridawx]

Still going north...

[Starburst]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:34Z
Date: August 16, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
17:26:00 13.98N 55.75W 696.9 mb 3,089 m 997.6 mb From 56° (NE/ENE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 48 kts 7 mm/hr
17:26:30 13.97N 55.72W 697.0 mb 3,081 m 996.0 mb From 55° (NE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
17:27:00 13.97N 55.70W 696.4 mb 3,084 m 995.3 mb From 55° (NE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 47 kts 7 mm/hr
17:27:30 13.95N 55.67W 696.1 mb 3,079 m 992.8 mb From 52° (NE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 47 kts 6 mm/hr
17:28:00 13.95N 55.65W 696.1 mb 3,069 m 991.8 mb From 49° (NE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 52 kts 6 mm/hr
17:28:30 13.93N 55.62W 697.0 mb 3,045 m 990.3 mb From 52° (NE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 55 kts 7 mm/hr
17:29:00 13.93N 55.60W 696.6 mb 3,035 m 987.7 mb From 47° (NE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 58 kts 6 mm/hr
17:29:30 13.92N 55.58W 696.0 mb 3,033 m 985.7 mb From 48° (NE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 66 kts* 32 mm/hr*
17:30:00 13.92N 55.55W 697.4 mb 2,995 m 983.1 mb From 46° (NE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 74 kts 20 mm/hr
17:30:30 13.90N 55.53W 695.6 mb 2,993 m 977.1 mb From 43° (NE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 77 kts 21 mm/hr
17:31:00 13.88N 55.50W 697.0 mb 2,942 m 970.9 mb From 46° (NE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 78 kts 23 mm/hr
17:31:30 13.88N 55.48W 696.6 mb 2,933 m 970.7 mb From 68° (ENE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 69 kts* 45 mm/hr*
17:32:00 13.87N 55.45W 696.5 mb 2,922 m 969.1 mb From 91° (E) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 45 kts* 7 mm/hr*
17:32:30 13.85N 55.45W 697.5 mb 2,906 m 969.1 mb From 88° (E) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
17:33:00 13.82N 55.45W 696.3 mb 2,920 m 972.4 mb From 86° (E) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 18 kts* 7 mm/hr*
17:33:30 13.78N 55.43W 695.4 mb 2,950 m 971.4 mb From 251° (WSW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 43 kts* 7 mm/hr*
17:34:00 13.77N 55.42W 695.5 mb 2,977 m 976.5 mb From 237° (WSW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 56 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:34:30 13.75N 55.38W 697.3 mb 2,985 m 986.3 mb From 212° (SSW) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 80 kts (~ 92.0 mph) 66 kts* 10 mm/hr*
17:35:00 13.75N 55.35W 697.5 mb 3,015 m 991.7 mb From 199° (SSW) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 67 kts* 12 mm/hr*
17:35:30 13.73N 55.33W 697.5 mb 3,029 m 994.5 mb From 196° (SSW) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 60 kts* 44 mm/hr*
At 17:26:00Z (first observation), the observation was 267 miles (429 km) to the ENE (76°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 17:35:30Z (last observation), the observation was 291 miles (469 km) to the E (81°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
 


 
Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).


[vaffie]

Recon just entered the CDO. Pressure falling at >2 mb/minute of flight on it's way towards the eye. At 998 mb now. 55 mph surface winds now.

[Scorpion]

80 kt FL wind reported

[Ivanhater]

[Regit]

Well, I hate to disagree, but I disagree. Locally I saw an immediate jump of about 8 cents in one afternoon as soon as the models started pointing at NE texas for Katrina. We ended up up about 45 cents locally here once the storm had past.

Well you said you disagree, yet your second sentence was in agreement with me. Katrina caused a small initial increase (8 cents at the time equalled about a 1.5-2% increase). It is AFTER the storm knocked some refineries offline that prices went nuts.

Any increase in the coming week is general market fluctuation with some small element of anticipation of a hurricane. Major increases on a local scale are the result of price gouging.

Anyway, back to Dean.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

[Scorpion]

969 mb reported

[Regit]

Well, I hate to disagree, but I disagree. Locally I saw an immediate jump of about 8 cents in one afternoon as soon as the models started pointing at NE texas for Katrina. We ended up up about 45 cents locally here once the storm had past.

Well you said you disagree, yet your second sentence was in agreement with me. Katrina caused a small initial increase (8 cents at the time equalled about a 3-4% increase). It is AFTER the storm knocked some refineries offline that prices went nuts.

Any increase in the coming week is general market fluctuation with some small element of anticipation of a hurricane. Major increases on a local scale are the result of price gouging.

Anyway, back to Dean.

Edited to fix my math.

[Aric Dunn]

80 kt FL wind reported

173400 1346N 05525W 6955 02977 9765 +161 +070 237060 076 056 006 03
173430 1345N 05523W 6973 02985 9863 +108 +067 212075 080 066 010 03

[Wx_Warrior]

Link to GFDL?

[Diva]

It should be mentioned that there's no historical precedent for major increases in gas prices upon the threat of a hurricane. Any increase will be small an no larger than any other typical fluctuation.

For gas prices to soar a major hurricane would have to hit the gulf coast, knocking out major refineries (like happened after Katrina).

So no worries now about gasoline prices.

Tell that to all the retailers around here that raised their gas prices LAST NIGHT...they say because of the Gulf activity!

Well that's price gouging, not economics.

I wholeheartedly agree...but it still doesn't change the fact that I would prefer to stock up on the gasoline BEFORE the gouging insues.