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WxGuy1 wrote:I agree. Given the mid-level ridge (actually, it's a cut-off high) in place across the southern US, I find it hard to think that anywhere east of LA is at much of a risk. Right now, I'd say the highest probability for landfall would be Galveston southward (into Mexico). Of course, we're still a ways out, so anybody saying "it will hit here" or "it won't hit here" is full of it. It's best if we use a little probabilistic reasoning -- "it's most likely to hit here" or "the probability of a hit here is small IMO". There's a ton of uncertainty at that range, but strong model consensus adds confidence that the western Gulf of Mexico coast as at the highest risk. Heck, there's a chance (probably greater than a FL hit, but less than a path through the Yucatan) that Dean will remain south that it never does emerge into the Gulf of Mexico after hitting Mexico, Honduras, and other Central America countries.
Of course, we've consistently seen storms that have been terribly forecast, storms that have ended up 1000s of miles from where all previous forecasts had them. Tropical cyclones (tracks and, in particular, intensities) are extremely difficult to forecast beyond 36 hrs, so it would be incredible to see any particular model solution verify perfectly at 4-5 days.
Wow, that would be something if it didn't even enter the gulf and just went into Mexico/ Central America instead. Like you said, that's a possibility, but someone will still have to deal with the horrible effects from it regardless.
