CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Recurve]

I hope this helps anyone -- NRL forecast track layered on Google Earth view of the Antilles. This shouldn't be too big, GIF format...

[robbielyn]

Hi, this is Antonio, from Tampico Mexico at Gulf of Mexico, were are watching Dean track and its forecast , Dean remembers me Hurricane Gilbert 1988 path, being a thread to Jamaica, Cancun, and then Mexico - USA border states, also Gilbert reached its Cat 5 at western caribean sea, let´s see if Dean continues to be similar as Gilbert.

Greetings,

Antonio, Bienvenido al foro. Me alegra que se una a nosotros en un momento tan crítico para algunas de las islas de las Antillas y futuramente, para México. Espero que en Tampico estén vigilando muy de cerca la trayectoria futura de Dean. En este foro te enterarás siempre de la información más reciente y aprenderás mucho. Como Miembro del Mes te doy la bienvenida.


Sandy

_______________________

Antonio, Welcome to the forum. I'm very happy that you have joined us in such a critical time for some of the islands of the Antilles and in the future, Mexico. I hope that everyone in Tampico is watching Dean very close. In this forum you will have the latest information and you will learn a lot. As Member of the Month I welcome you.

Sandy

Ok I could pronounce every single word except enteraras too many 'r's' in that word lol. How did you get the accent marks over the letters? Sorry off topic will get back to it after this.

[marcane_1973]

looks like Dean may have levelled off in intensity for a little while now...the partial eye seen earlier now longer clear cut @ all...from latest IR it would suggest the center may also be south of 14N once again

Yeah... It really looked better earlier today. It has leveled off for now. If you have watched Hurricanes over the years it really looks like a stong cat 1 trying to get its act together. The overall structure and outflow looks fantastic even though just a little dry air has been sucked in on the west side. The structure has never been an issue with Dean. His center is what has been the main issue with him. Just when it looks like a decent eye is about to form it dissapears. I have seen Hurricanes in the past with his current pressure form a way better looking eyewall by now. I have a feeling he is going to crank for sure but not until he gets further west in the caribbean.

[Scorpion]

Yes, but say it intensifies to a Cat 4 and the people are expecting a 2 or 3... could make the difference between people going to shelters or not

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, it doesn't looks as good on the IR as it did earlier, but it could just be a fluctuation. I'm sure it will be back tomorrow...

[perk]

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston. I am not looking forward to what could very be coming. It looking more and more Dean will be in the S Central GOM when the ridge weakens.

KatDaddy i think the craziness has already started. I was in my local HEB picking up a few items for dinner, and just happened to pass by the isle where the bottle water is stocked and the shelves were empty. I asked an employee did they move the water to another isle, the guy smiled and said no we're just out.

[shelby]

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston. I am not looking forward to what could very be coming. It looking more and more Dean will be in the S Central GOM when the ridge weakens.

KatDaddy i think the craziness has already started. I was in my local HEB picking up a few items for dinner, and just happened to pass by the isle where the bottle water is stocked and the shelves were empty. I asked an employee did they move the water to another isle, the guy smiled and said no we're just out.

Agree - went Kroger's tonight. No much water. It will only get crazier.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 162329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.8 55.5 280./21.0
6 14.1 57.6 279./21.0
12 14.1 60.1 271./23.6
18 14.3 62.4 273./22.6
24 14.5 64.7 275./22.6
30 14.5 66.7 270./18.7
36 14.6 68.6 273./18.8
42 14.9 70.4 278./17.2
48 15.2 72.2 280./17.6
54 15.4 74.0 278./17.6
60 15.7 75.5 279./15.2
66 16.2 77.2 289./16.5
72 16.8 78.9 288./17.6
78 17.5 80.5 294./17.3
84 18.2 82.4 291./18.7
90 18.9 84.1 294./17.7
96 19.8 85.9 295./19.0
102 20.6 87.3 300./15.4
108 21.7 88.9 304./18.3
114 22.6 90.3 303./16.5
120 23.7 91.7 308./16.7
126 24.6 92.9 306./14.4

18z GFDL,Yucatan

[sphelps8681]

I live in Lumberton Texas north of Beaumont Texas. I did not leave when Hurrican Rita hit, won't do that again. Aftermath was the worst thing I have ever experiienced. I am not an expert with the terms used on this website so if anyone could let me know what are the chances this thing will hit near Beaumont. I would like to plan this time to get the heck out.

Thanks,

Susan

[jabman98]

Rita like craziness on the horizon for the Houston-Galveston. I am not looking forward to what could very be coming. It looking more and more Dean will be in the S Central GOM when the ridge weakens.

KatDaddy i think the craziness has already started. I was in my local HEB picking up a few items for dinner, and just happened to pass by the isle where the bottle water is stocked and the shelves were empty. I asked an employee did they move the water to another isle, the guy smiled and said no we're just out.

Bottled water was at the ends of the aisles two days ago at my local Kroger - for Erin, I guess. It's going to be crazy here this weekend unless something changes dramatically with Dean.

[DESTRUCTION5]

WEstward Ho!! GFDL backs down..

[rainman31]

I am aware major hurricanes are not a joking matter seeing that I live on Galveston bay, I meant nothing hurtful by my post. please forgive me, and to you and your family, please stay safe, God speed.

[Rainband]

I say thats poor taste by the Mets and for Ratings. It's way too far away to even mention that now.

Mention what? Not sure which post you're referring to...

That the weakness might turn it north. It's still days away from the GOM.

[shelby]

IMO - what scares me - is the fact that alot of people HOU are aware of the water issues but not really realize what the winds will do. And - the fact that we are so large, the panic may getting crazy.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like it would it would be aiming at the middle/upper texas coast in that run heading NW.

[wsquared77]

Like you said wsquard77, its not the leaving that bothers me at all. Its the coming back and not knowing what your going to see.

It's what you ARE NOT going to see that's the hard part. You have nooooooo idea what it's like to live in a City all your life and not even be able to recognize anything on the way to find your own house. That is exactly what happened when I finally got back into my area after Rita. The tears just flowed like a fountain when I saw the airport because I knew I was getting close and the closer I got the worse the destruction became. We all take landmarks for granted and when they are gone it's amazing how lost you can be in your own town.

P.S. - I spotted my roof almost 1/4 mile down the highway before getting to my house. Scary!

You're right I do have no idea what it's like and I really pray that I never find out I pray every day for people who have lived through such events. I did not live in this area for Andrew, but have family and friends who did. They all talked about the loss of landmarks that they didn't even realize they relied upon and being "lost" in their own home town.

Sorry...A little off topic...

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFDL = yucatan and then northwest toward TX.

As of this post, the consensus seems to aim somewhere between the very northern tip of Mexico and Galveston as a possible end point for this system. We will have to see if that decides to shift left or right in the coming days (or if the 00z runs with the new data change it).

[ConvergenceZone]

I say thats poor taste by the Mets and for Ratings. It's way too far away to even mention that now.

Mention what? Not sure which post you're referring to...

That the weakness might turn it north. It's still days away from the GOM.

I don't think there's anything wrong with that at all myself stating that "the weakness might turn it north" they are just trying to cover all bases so that EVERYONE can be prepared, I'm confused....

[jabman98]

Locals mets talked about whether or not Dean slows down as being important as to whether or not he heads towards Houston/Galveson area. Could someone share some thoughts as to why Dean might or might not slow down - what factors impact that?

Thanks.

[Cape Verde]

GFS has been consistent. Lets see what happens with the 0Z model runs after the Gulf stream data gets completely utilized

The GFDL model run was sufficient enough for me to go get fresh supplies for this season tomorrow. Even if GFS is right and the Yucatan hurts it, it looks like it will be a more dangerous season this year for the Houston area than last year.

Even a near miss from a major hurricane (Rita) left Houston without gasoline for days.