CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

Eclipse? would you be so kind to explaine what is that? I guess you are talking about the floater.

the satellite eclipse happens during the summer months .. we lose satellite image for a a couple hours ..

[Aric Dunn]

Why isn't the radar picking up any rain?

what do you mean

[Category6]

Looks like it's gonna pass right over the forecast point

[RL3AO]

Why isn't the radar picking up any rain?

what do you mean

It only shows the heavy bands.

Not like this.

[Aric Dunn]

Why isn't the radar picking up any rain?

what do you mean

It only shows the heavy bands.

Not like this.

because its a old and crappy radar. but its all we have .. and is still helpful

[Ptarmigan]

Slow-moving hurricane in the Gulf... how lovely.

Slow moving hurricane is bad. They can produce prolonged storm surge and heavy rain, which leads to flooding. It is something Texas does not need anymore.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyway, since the NCEP website seems to be having trouble, I found it on the E-Wall. It shows it hit just south of Brownsville, then creep up the Rio Grande River at 180 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_ ... ml#picture

This path is much further north than the 18z, which showed a hit much further south in Mexico [18z = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif ]. This may not be a good sign if it is the start of a trend.

Also, the NNW movement after landfall is different than the 18z too, and if that movement happens just offshore instead of after landfall, then it would mean the Texas coast could be the target.

[Wx_Warrior]

Much further would mean CORPUS for me..Nonetheless, I dont like it....Scary thoughts.

Can't wait for EURO!

[Wx_Warrior]

Landfall Brownsville, south of a little....174 (Aug. 24)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_174m.gif

[Sanibel]

Edit: Nope. Brownsville landfall it was.

[ts_kakolina]

Eclipse? would you be so kind to explaine what is that? I guess you are talking about the floater.

What is a satellite eclipse period?
Since GOES is in a geosynchronous orbit, the sun will yearly traverse a +/- 23.5 degree angle perpendicular to the Earth's equator (GOES orbit plane). As a result, near the Vernal and Autumnal Equinoxes the Earth disk will periodically occult the sun, from a GOES perspective. Essentially, there are two eclipse seasons for each GOES spacecraft. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite. Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the instruments are powered off. There is typically a 0-3 hour outage of imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/html/go ... tm#Eclipse

[hurricanetrack]

FWIW- if Dean does hit Texas, you can rest assured I will be there with a kick-butt 10-meter wind tower system to give you guys, and the world, reliable and accurate wind readings. My team and I have worked on this for years and finally have it ready to go. We will travel to south TX if need be b/c that's what we are all about- the data. Who knows- we might be where there is almost no ground data of any kind! I was in Corpus in June working with Lowe's on a hurricane prep seminar. Great city and great people that day! Hope Dean leaves them alone but if not, you can count on our data when the cows go flying! Well, no cows, but you get the point. We shall see! The season is still so young....

[Steve]

>>It looks like the ULL has kind of stalled out...What will this mean, especially with Dean moving faster?

Last I checked, which was this afternoon, it was still in process of the evolution from TUTT to cutoff low. If I remember right, it wasn't supposed to have completed that until like 7pm tomorrow (based on Wed's GFS upper upper data).

I'm running it out to 30 frames right now at the Climate and Hydrology Center/NASA viewer (30 minute intervals).

What I see is this: trough split sw of cutting off ULL whch is now an oblong, self contained swirl within the remnants of the TUTT. An upper high and outflow from Erin are rotating the flow out of the north and northeast from GA to LA (looks like the high is still over Erin and extends in some form toward NM. Bigger ULL embedded within the larger subtropical Atlantic Ridge and also off to the NE of Dean seems to be migrating southward; another wave in front of Dean crossed 70 and fired off some storms in Haiti and down in South America and getting some moisture entrained into first ULL (subject of future weakness possibilities). Almost off the screen and maybe 1/5th through nothern Missouri is the big push via the weekend trough with a gradual but strong push toward the SE. This should affect some pressure on the ULL ahead of Dean, you would think and supress it south and then west as the pattern flips back to ridging with the Canadian air meeting up and joining with the subtropical atlantic high (could be crucial for what's following dean to see if there is a split in the ridging or a defined western periphery of a combined ridge across the Gulf somewhere. What does all this mean? Heh. Players are on the field.

Run them both at 30:

:30 tropical view
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

:15 N/A-West Atlantic View
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[Aric Dunn]

Eclipse? would you be so kind to explaine what is that? I guess you are talking about the floater.

What is a satellite eclipse period?
Since GOES is in a geosynchronous orbit, the sun will yearly traverse a +/- 23.5 degree angle perpendicular to the Earth's equator (GOES orbit plane). As a result, near the Vernal and Autumnal Equinoxes the Earth disk will periodically occult the sun, from a GOES perspective. Essentially, there are two eclipse seasons for each GOES spacecraft. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite. Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the instruments are powered off. There is typically a 0-3 hour outage of imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/html/go ... tm#Eclipse

thankyou for the exact definition..
I hate this table it is the hardest thing to follow http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/EA ... -Rout.html
if someone can tell me how to read it correctly... that would be great...
I have some theories !!!! lol

[rjgator]

Eclipse? would you be so kind to explaine what is that? I guess you are talking about the floater.

What is a satellite eclipse period?
Since GOES is in a geosynchronous orbit, the sun will yearly traverse a +/- 23.5 degree angle perpendicular to the Earth's equator (GOES orbit plane). As a result, near the Vernal and Autumnal Equinoxes the Earth disk will periodically occult the sun, from a GOES perspective. Essentially, there are two eclipse seasons for each GOES spacecraft. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite. Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the instruments are powered off. There is typically a 0-3 hour outage of imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/html/go ... tm#Eclipse

That was a great explaination.

[vaffie]

Considering that the GFS has been the furthest to the left, a move north like that with a lot of new data is bad news for me.

[hurricanetrack]

Wow! Look at that turn northward (more north) at the end of the GFS run. One thing we can say is that this particular run does not send Dean way south in to Mexico- it does hit Texas as a hurricane but indirectly- right? Comes in south of TX but crosses over likely as a hurricane still? Would you agree? You could even deduce that S. TX would easily see hurricane conditions based purely on this run.

Hmm....might have to start planning on when to leave NC.

[vaffie]

Umm, guys. At 192 hours, it's stalling...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192m.gif

[Duddy]

Wow! Look at that turn northward (more north) at the end of the GFS run. One thing we can say is that this particular run does not send Dean way south in to Mexico- it does hit Texas as a hurricane but indirectly- right? Comes in south of TX but crosses over likely as a hurricane still? Would you agree? You could even deduce that S. TX would easily see hurricane conditions based purely on this run.

Hmm....might have to start planning on when to leave NC.

Sunday Morning. Two day trip if you drive for 12 hours a day.

[Derek Ortt]

to those living on Martinique that may be reading this

stop reading and immediately move to your safe room