CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe not. We are talkin 10 mile wide or less eye that could miss land by 15 miles south of island. Yes, Martinique would get strong shoulder winds but not direct eyewall.

thats pushing it.. the eye would fit almost exactly between them.. that would put the eye wall over land.. and its probably going to wabble.. MQ is going to take the brunt

[TTheriot1975]

sorry...i am just anxious to see if GFDL has moved further south...also the UKMET...they were predicting father north in all the earlier runs

[Extremeweatherguy]

CMC has been all over the place lately and is usually the furthest south. I am not putting a lot of stock into it...it seems completely out of whack.

It's been the worst performing global for Dean so far, either going off to the north or to the south. I wouldn't rely on it. A consensus of the GFDL, GFS and WRF has been the best by far.

Yeah, I wouldn't rely on it for motion. It sometimes is good at "sniffing out" formation (a.k.a. Erin), but it is generally not good with storm tracks. At this stage, the consensus is the smart way to go.

BTW: I edited my quoted comment, because I had changed it on the last page shortly after posting.

[hicksta]

I think the GFDL comes out soon, the CMC is not a reliable tropical model.

[TTheriot1975]

if it stays where they were...or move further north..then it would verify weakening in the Ridge and ULL pulling it north

[vaffie]

sorry...i am just anxious to see if GFDL has moved further south...also the UKMET...they were predicting father north in all the earlier runs

It could go either way--the GFS didn't really change much until it was halfway through the Bay of Campeche.

[HouTXmetro]

And if they go south we can all go to bed at ease....

[Sanibel]

Aric, you're usually a stickler for these kind of things. I could take a measure and show you the width of the eye vs the pass. The small eye is clear in that last frame.

[SunnyThoughts]

UKMET has Dean going through the channel and hitting around Galveston I believe. I don't have a link...just heard it on another weather site.

[Extremeweatherguy]

UKMET has Dean going through the channel and hitting around Galveston I believe. I don't have a link...just heard it on another weather site.

The 0z run?

[Duddy]

And if they go south we can all go to bed at ease....

And if not it means I'll be going to sleep at 5AM again

Holy crap this board is the most addicting thing EVER!!!

"Just one more, just one more...."

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you're usually a stickler for these kind of things. I could take a measure and show you the width of the eye vs the pass. The small eye is clear in that last frame.

exactly my point the width of the eye would nearly fit exactly between the islands.. which would put the eye wall on both islands.

but like i said.. its probably going to wabble..


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM


strongest winds would be over land ..

[SunnyThoughts]

Extreme...I would assume so, it was posted recently, Like I said I don't have a link to that actual model...maybe someone else does? I would like to see it also if anyone has it.

[hicksta]

Post the link sunny.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm, well that would certainly be interesting. It hasn't updated on the model runs image page I have yet, but hopefully it will soon.

[Duddy]

Post the link sunny.

Yeah! Gimme some model pr0n!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you're usually a stickler for these kind of things. I could take a measure and show you the width of the eye vs the pass. The small eye is clear in that last frame.

you should come into teamspeak

only takes a second to set up

[Sanibel]

I'm pretty confident a tight eye will pass just south of Martinique in the pass. How much gap there is between land and the eyewall will be told by Dean's movement over the next 2 hours. Never the less Martinique will take the strong side of the 25 mile hurricane core. Storm could wobble over island as well.

[artist]

cloud tops were getting cold-

[Fego]

Intellicast is 15 minutes ahead of Dean floater. My amateur eye see a south component in its movement, almost sure is a wooble
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... large=true