CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[ftolmsteen]

Looks like Buoy 42059 west of Dean has a good possibility of being directly hit. I'm interested to see the wave heights on this when it gets there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[kozzieman]

Is coastal MS safe now? Does it appear this morning that Dean is going to be more of a MX/TX or a TX/LA threat?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

OB 10 Decoded:

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 10:51Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
10:44:00 14.63N 61.53W 696.9 mb 3,060 m 992.1 mb From 59° (ENE) at 78 kts (89.7 mph) 80 kts (~ 92.0 mph) 60 kts 6 mm/hr
10:44:30 14.62N 61.52W 696.1 mb 3,054 m 990.8 mb From 61° (ENE) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 81 kts (~ 93.1 mph) 58 kts 9 mm/hr
10:45:00 14.60N 61.50W 696.8 mb 3,038 m 991.9 mb From 62° (ENE) at 82 kts (94.3 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 59 kts* 50 mm/hr*
10:45:30 14.57N 61.48W 696.0 mb 3,035 m 989.4 mb From 56° (NE/ENE) at 80 kts (92.0 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 62 kts* 44 mm/hr*
10:46:00 14.55N 61.47W 695.9 mb 3,028 m 989.9 mb From 57° (ENE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 61 kts* 17 mm/hr*
10:46:30 14.53N 61.45W 696.6 mb 3,009 m 989.3 mb From 61° (ENE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 62 kts* 48 mm/hr*
10:47:00 14.52N 61.43W 696.5 mb 2,994 m 985.4 mb From 57° (ENE) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 63 kts* 7 mm/hr*
10:47:30 14.48N 61.42W 696.6 mb 2,976 m 982.0 mb From 54° (NE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 67 kts 10 mm/hr
10:48:00 14.47N 61.40W 696.1 mb 2,955 m 978.6 mb From 46° (NE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 72 kts 10 mm/hr
10:48:30 14.43N 61.38W 697.1 mb 2,919 m 974.0 mb From 47° (NE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 72 kts 9 mm/hr
10:49:00 14.42N 61.37W 696.0 mb 2,913 m 969.0 mb From 39° (NE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 67 kts* 7 mm/hr*
10:49:30 14.40N 61.33W 697.2 mb 2,879 m 968.5 mb From 33° (NNE/NE) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 54 kts* 5 mm/hr*
10:50:00 14.38N 61.32W 696.9 mb 2,879 m 968.5 mb From 59° (ENE) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 26 kts* 5 mm/hr*
10:50:30 14.37N 61.28W 696.6 mb 2,880 m 969.3 mb From 121° (ESE) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 6 kts (~ 6.9 mph) 13 kts 5 mm/hr
10:51:00 14.35N 61.27W 696.9 mb 2,891 m 970.2 mb From 203° (SSW) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 27 kts* 6 mm/hr*
10:51:30 14.32N 61.25W 696.8 mb 2,898 m 971.0 mb From 212° (SSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 52 kts* 7 mm/hr*
10:52:00 14.30N 61.22W 696.0 mb 2,927 m 974.7 mb From 212° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 64 kts 18 mm/hr
10:52:30 14.28N 61.20W 697.4 mb 2,932 m - From 210° (SSW) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 71 kts* 24 mm/hr*
10:53:00 14.27N 61.18W 698.0 mb 2,946 m - From 201° (SSW) at 80 kts (92.0 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 68 kts 32 mm/hr
10:53:30 14.25N 61.17W 694.6 mb 3,010 m 988.5 mb From 203° (SSW) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 71 kts 18 mm/hr
At 10:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 30 miles (49 km) to the W (274°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).
At 10:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 21 miles (34 km) to the NW (324°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .18c-61.17

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------

URNT15 KNHC 171101
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 11 20070817
105400 1414N 06109W 6957 03013 9892 +081 +081 199072 074 069 051 03
105430 1413N 06108W 6981 03001 9990 +058 +999 196072 075 066 024 01
105500 1412N 06107W 6956 03043 9932 +072 +072 198067 068 059 044 03
105530 1411N 06106W 6967 03042 9922 +093 +093 198064 065 058 009 00
105600 1410N 06105W 6964 03057 9933 +093 +093 200064 064 054 006 00
105630 1409N 06104W 6967 03061 9944 +092 +092 198062 063 052 006 00
105700 1408N 06103W 6962 03072 9950 +092 +092 203059 061 054 007 00
105730 1406N 06101W 6968 03071 9953 +097 +097 203054 056 051 006 00
105800 1405N 06100W 6961 03086 9964 +094 +094 205052 053 051 006 00
105830 1404N 06059W 6964 03086 9974 +090 +090 207053 053 062 000 00
105900 1403N 06058W 6963 03058 9950 +089 +089 207055 057 108 009 03
105930 1402N 06057W 6952 03021 9930 +068 +068 206051 052 999 999 05
110000 1401N 06056W 6955 02974 9990 +061 +999 205060 063 999 999 05
110030 1400N 06055W 6965 02863 9717 +066 +066 204060 061 999 999 05
110100 1359N 06054W 6963 02941 9860 +068 +068 205059 060 999 999 03
110130 1358N 06052W 6965 03105 0018 +073 +073 205058 058 085 000 03
110200 1356N 06051W 6963 03112 0007 +085 +085 208055 057 066 021 03
110230 1355N 06050W 6960 03119 9990 +066 +999 206050 055 057 026 01
110300 1354N 06049W 6953 03127 9990 +062 +999 204052 052 058 022 01
110330 1353N 06048W 6975 03100 9990 +059 +999 204051 053 054 023 01

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:01Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
10:54:00 14.23N 61.15W 695.7 mb 3,013 m 989.2 mb From 199° (SSW) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 69 kts* 51 mm/hr*
10:54:30 14.22N 61.13W 698.1 mb 3,001 m - From 196° (SSW) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 66 kts 24 mm/hr
10:55:00 14.20N 61.12W 695.6 mb 3,043 m 993.2 mb From 198° (SSW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 59 kts* 44 mm/hr*
10:55:30 14.18N 61.10W 696.7 mb 3,042 m 992.2 mb From 198° (SSW) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 58 kts 9 mm/hr
10:56:00 14.17N 61.08W 696.4 mb 3,057 m 993.3 mb From 200° (SSW) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 54 kts 6 mm/hr
10:56:30 14.15N 61.07W 696.7 mb 3,061 m 994.4 mb From 198° (SSW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 52 kts 6 mm/hr
10:57:00 14.13N 61.05W 696.2 mb 3,072 m 995.0 mb From 203° (SSW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 54 kts 7 mm/hr
10:57:30 14.10N 61.02W 696.8 mb 3,071 m 995.3 mb From 203° (SSW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 51 kts 6 mm/hr
10:58:00 14.08N 61.00W 696.1 mb 3,086 m 996.4 mb From 205° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 51 kts 6 mm/hr
10:58:30 14.07N 60.98W 696.4 mb 3,086 m 997.4 mb From 207° (SSW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 62 kts 0 mm/hr
10:59:00 14.05N 60.97W 696.3 mb 3,058 m 995.0 mb From 207° (SSW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 108 kts* 9 mm/hr*
10:59:30 14.03N 60.95W 695.2 mb 3,021 m 993.0 mb From 206° (SSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) - -
11:00:00 14.02N 60.93W 695.5 mb 2,974 m - From 205° (SSW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) - -
11:00:30 14.00N 60.92W 696.5 mb 2,863 m 971.7 mb From 204° (SSW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) - -
11:01:00 13.98N 60.90W 696.3 mb 2,941 m 986.0 mb From 205° (SSW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
11:01:30 13.97N 60.87W 696.5 mb 3,105 m 1001.8 mb From 205° (SSW) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 85 kts* 0 mm/hr*
11:02:00 13.93N 60.85W 696.3 mb 3,112 m 1000.7 mb From 208° (SSW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 66 kts* 21 mm/hr*
11:02:30 13.92N 60.83W 696.0 mb 3,119 m - From 206° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 57 kts 26 mm/hr
11:03:00 13.90N 60.82W 695.3 mb 3,127 m - From 204° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 58 kts 22 mm/hr
11:03:30 13.88N 60.80W 697.5 mb 3,100 m - From 204° (SSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 54 kts 23 mm/hr
At 10:54:00Z (first observation), the observation was 19 miles (31 km) to the NW (325°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
At 11:03:30Z (last observation), the observation was 15 miles (24 km) to the SE (124°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .82c-60.80

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------------

URNT15 KNHC 171111
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 12 20070817
110400 1352N 06047W 6957 03130 9990 +057 +999 201054 055 053 023 01
110430 1351N 06046W 6960 03129 9990 +057 +999 200052 054 051 022 01
110500 1350N 06044W 6957 03135 9990 +055 +999 198049 050 049 019 05
110530 1349N 06043W 6964 03135 0048 +069 +069 197050 050 047 025 03
110600 1347N 06042W 6964 03135 0039 +081 +081 196049 049 044 008 00
110630 1346N 06041W 6967 03134 0042 +075 +075 198050 052 044 018 00
110700 1345N 06040W 6959 03144 0055 +069 +069 201049 049 043 008 00
110730 1344N 06039W 6965 03140 0056 +074 +074 196048 048 043 006 00
110800 1343N 06038W 6965 03141 0064 +070 +070 197047 048 044 007 00
110830 1342N 06037W 6962 03149 0056 +078 +078 198045 045 044 007 00
110900 1341N 06035W 6967 03144 0046 +087 +087 199044 045 043 006 00
110930 1340N 06034W 6965 03150 0046 +090 +090 201045 046 044 006 00
111000 1339N 06033W 6968 03148 0054 +085 +085 200048 049 043 006 00
111030 1337N 06032W 6964 03154 0056 +086 +086 200047 047 043 005 00
111100 1336N 06031W 6967 03151 0064 +082 +082 199046 047 043 005 00
111130 1335N 06030W 6972 03148 0069 +079 +079 200045 046 041 006 00
111200 1334N 06029W 6964 03162 0079 +074 +074 195046 047 040 008 00
111230 1333N 06027W 6960 03165 0091 +065 +065 190043 046 038 008 00
111300 1332N 06026W 6964 03159 0085 +070 +070 187043 044 038 007 00
111330 1331N 06025W 6963 03162 0080 +074 +074 194044 044 038 006 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:11Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 12
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:04:00 13.87N 60.78W 695.7 mb 3,130 m - From 201° (SSW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 53 kts 23 mm/hr
11:04:30 13.85N 60.77W 696.0 mb 3,129 m - From 200° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 51 kts 22 mm/hr
11:05:00 13.83N 60.73W 695.7 mb 3,135 m - From 198° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 49 kts* 19 mm/hr*
11:05:30 13.82N 60.72W 696.4 mb 3,135 m 1004.8 mb From 197° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 47 kts* 25 mm/hr*
11:06:00 13.78N 60.70W 696.4 mb 3,135 m 1003.9 mb From 196° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 44 kts 8 mm/hr
11:06:30 13.77N 60.68W 696.7 mb 3,134 m 1004.2 mb From 198° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 44 kts 18 mm/hr
11:07:00 13.75N 60.67W 695.9 mb 3,144 m 1005.5 mb From 201° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 43 kts 8 mm/hr
11:07:30 13.73N 60.65W 696.5 mb 3,140 m 1005.6 mb From 196° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
11:08:00 13.72N 60.63W 696.5 mb 3,141 m 1006.4 mb From 197° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 44 kts 7 mm/hr
11:08:30 13.70N 60.62W 696.2 mb 3,149 m 1005.6 mb From 198° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 44 kts 7 mm/hr
11:09:00 13.68N 60.58W 696.7 mb 3,144 m 1004.6 mb From 199° (SSW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
11:09:30 13.67N 60.57W 696.5 mb 3,150 m 1004.6 mb From 201° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
11:10:00 13.65N 60.55W 696.8 mb 3,148 m 1005.4 mb From 200° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
11:10:30 13.62N 60.53W 696.4 mb 3,154 m 1005.6 mb From 200° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 43 kts 5 mm/hr
11:11:00 13.60N 60.52W 696.7 mb 3,151 m 1006.4 mb From 199° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 43 kts 5 mm/hr
11:11:30 13.58N 60.50W 697.2 mb 3,148 m 1006.9 mb From 200° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 41 kts 6 mm/hr
11:12:00 13.57N 60.48W 696.4 mb 3,162 m 1007.9 mb From 195° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 40 kts 8 mm/hr
11:12:30 13.55N 60.45W 696.0 mb 3,165 m 1009.1 mb From 190° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 38 kts 8 mm/hr
11:13:00 13.53N 60.43W 696.4 mb 3,159 m 1008.5 mb From 187° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
11:13:30 13.52N 60.42W 696.3 mb 3,162 m 1008.0 mb From 194° (SSW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
At 11:04:00Z (first observation), the observation was 16 miles (26 km) between the ESE and SE (123°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
At 11:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 50 miles (81 km) to the SE (131°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .43c-60.42

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------------

URNT15 KNHC 171121
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 13 20070817
111400 1330N 06024W 6965 03164 0080 +075 +075 194046 046 034 006 00
111430 1329N 06023W 6964 03166 0080 +076 +076 194046 047 031 006 00
111500 1327N 06022W 6963 03167 0081 +075 +075 192044 045 030 006 00
111530 1326N 06021W 6967 03163 0077 +079 +079 190045 046 028 006 00
111600 1325N 06020W 6963 03166 0077 +080 +080 190043 044 032 006 00
111630 1324N 06019W 6963 03171 0074 +083 +080 186043 044 032 006 00
111700 1323N 06017W 6964 03171 0071 +087 +074 181041 042 030 005 00
111730 1322N 06016W 6965 03170 0078 +082 +080 178043 044 030 005 00
111800 1321N 06015W 6963 03172 0079 +083 +080 180044 044 031 005 00
111830 1320N 06014W 6964 03171 0077 +083 +078 178042 042 033 005 00
111900 1319N 06013W 6963 03174 0080 +083 +076 178042 042 031 005 00
111930 1318N 06012W 6963 03177 0079 +084 +076 178042 042 031 005 00
112000 1317N 06011W 6964 03173 0079 +085 +076 178043 043 031 005 00
112030 1315N 06010W 6964 03176 0075 +089 +072 182042 042 033 005 00
112100 1314N 06009W 6964 03178 0073 +091 +071 183040 040 033 005 00
112130 1313N 06008W 6963 03179 0077 +090 +072 184041 041 032 005 00
112200 1312N 06007W 6964 03177 0081 +087 +076 181043 044 029 006 00
112230 1311N 06006W 6963 03176 0075 +091 +072 181042 043 029 005 00
112300 1310N 06004W 6967 03174 0076 +092 +069 182042 043 030 005 00
112330 1309N 06003W 6964 03178 0083 +086 +077 182043 043 030 005 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:21Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:14:00 13.50N 60.40W 696.5 mb 3,164 m 1008.0 mb From 194° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
11:14:30 13.48N 60.38W 696.4 mb 3,166 m 1008.0 mb From 194° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 31 kts 6 mm/hr
11:15:00 13.45N 60.37W 696.3 mb 3,167 m 1008.1 mb From 192° (SSW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
11:15:30 13.43N 60.35W 696.7 mb 3,163 m 1007.7 mb From 190° (S) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 28 kts 6 mm/hr
11:16:00 13.42N 60.33W 696.3 mb 3,166 m 1007.7 mb From 190° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
11:16:30 13.40N 60.32W 696.3 mb 3,171 m 1007.4 mb From 186° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
11:17:00 13.38N 60.28W 696.4 mb 3,171 m 1007.1 mb From 181° (S) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
11:17:30 13.37N 60.27W 696.5 mb 3,170 m 1007.8 mb From 178° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
11:18:00 13.35N 60.25W 696.3 mb 3,172 m 1007.9 mb From 180° (S) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
11:18:30 13.33N 60.23W 696.4 mb 3,171 m 1007.7 mb From 178° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
11:19:00 13.32N 60.22W 696.3 mb 3,174 m 1008.0 mb From 178° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
11:19:30 13.30N 60.20W 696.3 mb 3,177 m 1007.9 mb From 178° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
11:20:00 13.28N 60.18W 696.4 mb 3,173 m 1007.9 mb From 178° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
11:20:30 13.25N 60.17W 696.4 mb 3,176 m 1007.5 mb From 182° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
11:21:00 13.23N 60.15W 696.4 mb 3,178 m 1007.3 mb From 183° (S) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
11:21:30 13.22N 60.13W 696.3 mb 3,179 m 1007.7 mb From 184° (S) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
11:22:00 13.20N 60.12W 696.4 mb 3,177 m 1008.1 mb From 181° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
11:22:30 13.18N 60.10W 696.3 mb 3,176 m 1007.5 mb From 181° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
11:23:00 13.17N 60.07W 696.7 mb 3,174 m 1007.6 mb From 182° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
11:23:30 13.15N 60.05W 696.4 mb 3,178 m 1008.3 mb From 182° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
At 11:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 52 miles (84 km) to the SE (131°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
At 11:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 30 miles (48 km) to the W (278°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .07c-60.05

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------------

URNT15 KNHC 171131
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 14 20070817
112400 1308N 06002W 6965 03179 0086 +085 +077 181043 043 030 005 00
112430 1307N 06001W 6963 03180 0082 +089 +071 180042 043 029 005 00
112500 1306N 06000W 6964 03188 0087 +089 +073 178042 042 027 005 03
112530 1306N 05958W 6968 03176 0082 +090 +069 178043 044 020 006 03
112600 1307N 05956W 6963 03182 0081 +092 +066 179043 044 024 007 03
112630 1308N 05955W 6960 03186 0081 +094 +065 177044 045 021 006 03
112700 1310N 05955W 6963 03181 0078 +093 +062 175045 045 027 006 00
112730 1312N 05955W 6965 03180 0081 +090 +067 176044 045 029 006 00
112800 1315N 05954W 6964 03183 0083 +090 +071 175044 044 030 007 03
112830 1317N 05954W 6965 03179 0081 +090 +072 172045 045 033 006 00
112900 1319N 05955W 6963 03182 0081 +090 +071 170047 047 030 006 00
112930 1321N 05955W 6964 03181 0081 +090 +073 169047 048 032 006 00
113000 1323N 05955W 6965 03179 0080 +088 +072 168046 047 032 005 00
113030 1325N 05956W 6964 03176 0081 +088 +071 170045 046 032 006 00
113100 1327N 05956W 6964 03179 0078 +090 +066 174045 046 033 005 00
113130 1330N 05956W 6964 03176 0078 +090 +064 174047 048 033 005 00
113200 1332N 05957W 6963 03175 0076 +090 +069 174048 049 033 005 00
113230 1334N 05957W 6964 03173 0070 +094 +071 174047 047 033 006 00
113300 1336N 05957W 6963 03173 0073 +091 +072 174046 047 033 005 00
113330 1338N 05958W 6965 03172 0075 +089 +071 172047 048 033 006 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:31Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:24:00 13.13N 60.03W 696.5 mb 3,179 m 1008.6 mb From 181° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
11:24:30 13.12N 60.02W 696.3 mb 3,180 m 1008.2 mb From 180° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
11:25:00 13.10N 60.00W 696.4 mb 3,188 m 1008.7 mb From 178° (S) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 27 kts* 5 mm/hr*
11:25:30 13.10N 59.97W 696.8 mb 3,176 m 1008.2 mb From 178° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 20 kts* 6 mm/hr*
11:26:00 13.12N 59.93W 696.3 mb 3,182 m 1008.1 mb From 179° (S) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 24 kts* 7 mm/hr*
11:26:30 13.13N 59.92W 696.0 mb 3,186 m 1008.1 mb From 177° (S) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 21 kts* 6 mm/hr*
11:27:00 13.17N 59.92W 696.3 mb 3,181 m 1007.8 mb From 175° (S) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 27 kts 6 mm/hr
11:27:30 13.20N 59.92W 696.5 mb 3,180 m 1008.1 mb From 176° (S) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
11:28:00 13.25N 59.90W 696.4 mb 3,183 m 1008.3 mb From 175° (S) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 30 kts* 7 mm/hr*
11:28:30 13.28N 59.90W 696.5 mb 3,179 m 1008.1 mb From 172° (S) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
11:29:00 13.32N 59.92W 696.3 mb 3,182 m 1008.1 mb From 170° (S) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
11:29:30 13.35N 59.92W 696.4 mb 3,181 m 1008.1 mb From 169° (S) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
11:30:00 13.38N 59.92W 696.5 mb 3,179 m 1008.0 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
11:30:30 13.42N 59.93W 696.4 mb 3,176 m 1008.1 mb From 170° (S) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
11:31:00 13.45N 59.93W 696.4 mb 3,179 m 1007.8 mb From 174° (S) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
11:31:30 13.50N 59.93W 696.4 mb 3,176 m 1007.8 mb From 174° (S) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
11:32:00 13.53N 59.95W 696.3 mb 3,175 m 1007.6 mb From 174° (S) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
11:32:30 13.57N 59.95W 696.4 mb 3,173 m 1007.0 mb From 174° (S) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
11:33:00 13.60N 59.95W 696.3 mb 3,173 m 1007.3 mb From 174° (S) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
11:33:30 13.63N 59.97W 696.5 mb 3,172 m 1007.5 mb From 172° (S) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
At 11:24:00Z (first observation), the observation was 28 miles (46 km) to the W (275°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 11:33:30Z (last observation), the observation was 44 miles (71 km) to the NNW (327°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .95c-59.97

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------------

URNT15 KNHC 171141
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 15 20070817
113400 1340N 05958W 6963 03175 0076 +088 +071 171048 048 033 006 00
113430 1343N 05958W 6965 03170 0079 +084 +068 170050 050 034 006 00
113500 1345N 05959W 6963 03171 0085 +080 +079 169051 051 035 005 00
113530 1347N 05959W 6964 03171 0085 +080 +073 168052 052 034 005 00
113600 1349N 05959W 6964 03172 0082 +082 +073 168053 053 034 005 00
113630 1351N 06000W 6963 03174 0081 +083 +072 168053 054 035 006 00
113700 1354N 06000W 6964 03175 0083 +080 +072 167053 054 035 006 00
113730 1356N 06000W 6967 03169 0084 +080 +075 170053 053 035 007 03
113800 1358N 06000W 6963 03173 0083 +080 +077 169053 053 036 007 00
113830 1400N 06000W 6964 03171 0078 +084 +079 167051 051 034 006 00
113900 1402N 06000W 6965 03171 0084 +080 +077 167053 053 036 007 00
113930 1405N 06000W 6965 03172 0083 +081 +079 166051 052 038 007 00
114000 1407N 06001W 6964 03173 0080 +084 +075 166050 051 038 007 00
114030 1409N 06001W 6964 03174 0080 +084 +074 163049 050 038 007 00
114100 1411N 06001W 6963 03176 0080 +085 +072 163050 050 038 007 00
114130 1413N 06001W 6965 03176 0083 +083 +069 165051 051 037 006 00
114200 1416N 06002W 6963 03177 0082 +085 +070 163050 050 040 007 00
114230 1418N 06002W 6964 03175 0082 +085 +068 161049 050 041 007 00
114300 1420N 06002W 6965 03173 0078 +085 +071 158052 054 038 007 00
114330 1422N 06003W 6963 03172 0082 +081 +074 161055 055 033 007 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:41Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 15
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:34:00 13.67N 59.97W 696.3 mb 3,175 m 1007.6 mb From 171° (S) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
11:34:30 13.72N 59.97W 696.5 mb 3,170 m 1007.9 mb From 170° (S) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
11:35:00 13.75N 59.98W 696.3 mb 3,171 m 1008.5 mb From 169° (S) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 35 kts 5 mm/hr
11:35:30 13.78N 59.98W 696.4 mb 3,171 m 1008.5 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
11:36:00 13.82N 59.98W 696.4 mb 3,172 m 1008.2 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
11:36:30 13.85N 60.00W 696.3 mb 3,174 m 1008.1 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
11:37:00 13.90N 60.00W 696.4 mb 3,175 m 1008.3 mb From 167° (SSE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
11:37:30 13.93N 60.00W 696.7 mb 3,169 m 1008.4 mb From 170° (S) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 35 kts* 7 mm/hr*
11:38:00 13.97N 60.00W 696.3 mb 3,173 m 1008.3 mb From 169° (S) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 36 kts 7 mm/hr
11:38:30 14.00N 60.00W 696.4 mb 3,171 m 1007.8 mb From 167° (SSE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
11:39:00 14.03N 60.00W 696.5 mb 3,171 m 1008.4 mb From 167° (SSE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 36 kts 7 mm/hr
11:39:30 14.08N 60.00W 696.5 mb 3,172 m 1008.3 mb From 166° (SSE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
11:40:00 14.12N 60.02W 696.4 mb 3,173 m 1008.0 mb From 166° (SSE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
11:40:30 14.15N 60.02W 696.4 mb 3,174 m 1008.0 mb From 163° (SSE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
11:41:00 14.18N 60.02W 696.3 mb 3,176 m 1008.0 mb From 163° (SSE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
11:41:30 14.22N 60.02W 696.5 mb 3,176 m 1008.3 mb From 165° (SSE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
11:42:00 14.27N 60.03W 696.3 mb 3,177 m 1008.2 mb From 163° (SSE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 40 kts 7 mm/hr
11:42:30 14.30N 60.03W 696.4 mb 3,175 m 1008.2 mb From 161° (SSE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 41 kts 7 mm/hr
11:43:00 14.33N 60.03W 696.5 mb 3,173 m 1007.8 mb From 158° (SSE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
11:43:30 14.37N 60.05W 696.3 mb 3,172 m 1008.2 mb From 161° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 33 kts 7 mm/hr
At 11:34:00Z (first observation), the observation was 47 miles (75 km) to the NNW (329°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 11:43:30Z (last observation), the observation was 68 miles (109 km) to the ENE (68°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .03c-60.05

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------------

URNT15 KNHC 171151
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 16 20070817
114400 1424N 06003W 6965 03172 0085 +080 +074 160055 055 037 006 00
114430 1427N 06004W 6964 03175 0088 +080 +073 160055 055 039 006 00
114500 1429N 06004W 6965 03174 0088 +080 +073 158054 054 038 006 00
114530 1431N 06005W 6963 03175 0088 +079 +076 160054 054 040 007 00
114600 1433N 06005W 6952 03191 0096 +073 +073 160055 057 040 025 03
114630 1435N 06006W 6964 03174 0087 +080 +080 158055 056 038 007 00
114700 1437N 06007W 6965 03173 0093 +075 +075 155055 056 037 006 00
114730 1439N 06008W 6963 03174 0090 +075 +075 150055 056 035 007 00
114800 1442N 06008W 6964 03173 0086 +080 +080 148057 057 034 006 00
114830 1444N 06009W 6964 03175 0086 +080 +080 148057 057 034 007 00
114900 1446N 06010W 6965 03171 0080 +084 +081 148056 056 036 006 00
114930 1448N 06011W 6964 03176 0085 +082 +076 149057 057 036 006 00
115000 1450N 06012W 6965 03177 0088 +080 +079 149059 059 037 006 00
115030 1452N 06012W 6966 03173 0086 +083 +072 148058 059 039 006 00
115100 1454N 06013W 6963 03179 0088 +080 +069 148058 059 039 006 00
115130 1456N 06014W 6963 03179 0090 +080 +074 147058 059 042 006 00
115200 1459N 06015W 6964 03181 0092 +079 +079 145057 058 044 006 00
115230 1501N 06016W 6952 03193 0110 +064 +064 144055 058 048 038 03
115300 1503N 06017W 6985 03151 0098 +072 +072 146056 058 045 025 03
115330 1505N 06017W 6942 03205 0105 +068 +068 146063 067 999 999 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:51Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 16
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:44:00 14.40N 60.05W 696.5 mb 3,172 m 1008.5 mb From 160° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
11:44:30 14.45N 60.07W 696.4 mb 3,175 m 1008.8 mb From 160° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
11:45:00 14.48N 60.07W 696.5 mb 3,174 m 1008.8 mb From 158° (SSE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
11:45:30 14.52N 60.08W 696.3 mb 3,175 m 1008.8 mb From 160° (SSE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 40 kts 7 mm/hr
11:46:00 14.55N 60.08W 695.2 mb 3,191 m 1009.6 mb From 160° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 40 kts* 25 mm/hr*
11:46:30 14.58N 60.10W 696.4 mb 3,174 m 1008.7 mb From 158° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
11:47:00 14.62N 60.12W 696.5 mb 3,173 m 1009.3 mb From 155° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
11:47:30 14.65N 60.13W 696.3 mb 3,174 m 1009.0 mb From 150° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 35 kts 7 mm/hr
11:48:00 14.70N 60.13W 696.4 mb 3,173 m 1008.6 mb From 148° (SSE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
11:48:30 14.73N 60.15W 696.4 mb 3,175 m 1008.6 mb From 148° (SSE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
11:49:00 14.77N 60.17W 696.5 mb 3,171 m 1008.0 mb From 148° (SSE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 36 kts 6 mm/hr
11:49:30 14.80N 60.18W 696.4 mb 3,176 m 1008.5 mb From 149° (SSE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 36 kts 6 mm/hr
11:50:00 14.83N 60.20W 696.5 mb 3,177 m 1008.8 mb From 149° (SSE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
11:50:30 14.87N 60.20W 696.6 mb 3,173 m 1008.6 mb From 148° (SSE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
11:51:00 14.90N 60.22W 696.3 mb 3,179 m 1008.8 mb From 148° (SSE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
11:51:30 14.93N 60.23W 696.3 mb 3,179 m 1009.0 mb From 147° (SSE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 42 kts 6 mm/hr
11:52:00 14.98N 60.25W 696.4 mb 3,181 m 1009.2 mb From 145° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
11:52:30 15.02N 60.27W 695.2 mb 3,193 m 1011.0 mb From 144° (SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 48 kts* 38 mm/hr*
11:53:00 15.05N 60.28W 698.5 mb 3,151 m 1009.8 mb From 146° (SE/SSE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 45 kts* 25 mm/hr*
11:53:30 15.08N 60.28W 694.2 mb 3,205 m 1010.5 mb From 146° (SE/SSE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) - -
At 11:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 68 miles (110 km) to the ENE (66°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
At 11:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 63 miles (101 km) to the ENE (58°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .28c-60.28

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[TampaFl]

Is coastal MS safe now? Does it appear this morning that Dean is going to be more of a MX/TX or a TX/LA threat?

IMHO It is to early to tell. ALL interest along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida need to monitor Dean.

[baygirl_1]

Just when i thought we here in the Florida Panhandle was out of the woods. But i do remember OPal so time will tell.

Unfortunately, we won't be out of the woods til Dean is no more. Opal was a different animal: October storm born in the Bay Campeche and picked up by a cold front. But, yeah, she was a bit unpredictable as I recall and intensified very rapidly. Only time will tell with Dean. It seems the models are trending more right and I do not care for that.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[Dean4Storms]

Houston, we got a problem.

[Sjones]

Is coastal MS safe now? Does it appear this morning that Dean is going to be more of a MX/TX or a TX/LA threat?

IMHO It is to early to tell. ALL interest along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida need to monitor Dean.

IMO, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi are all ruled out just going off of the GFS and GFDL Models. This looks to be a MX,TX/LA Storm.

[vaffie]

Rundown of the latest Model Forecast Landfall sites. Please edit this as you find out.

GFS 6Z-- south of Brownsville.

GFDL 6Z-- Galveston Bay.

UKMET 0Z (older)-- Matagorda Bay

Aviation Ensemble Mean 0Z (older)-- Matagorda Bay

NAM, WRF--I don't know yet.

NGPS 0Z-- southern Mexico

CMC 0Z--west central Bay of Campeche

EURO 0Z--southern Mexico

Good resource: https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

[Dean4Storms]

Is coastal MS safe now? Does it appear this morning that Dean is going to be more of a MX/TX or a TX/LA threat?

IMHO It is to early to tell. ALL interest along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida need to monitor Dean.

IMO, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi are all ruled out just going off of the GFS and GFDL Models. This looks to be a MX,TX/LA Storm.

No Sir, the trend has been northward and this has yet to be written in stone. You never rule out anything within a cone of possibilities 5 days out, especially a situation such as this. There are some indications from the IV mission that the ridge is weaker than thought, this alone could play a role in a more northward turn even sooner than what the models are indicating, never mind the ULL.

[tolakram]

So the dry air did keep Dean from getting much stronger, good! It's also good to know I wasn't seeing things when I noticed the dry air being sucked in just before the infrared would start to get ugly. Hopefully conditions will remain marginal and Dean won't turn into the monster it's forecast to become.



It's looking organized at the moment.

[vaffie]

Looks like it's started an intensification cycle.

[rockyman]

Is coastal MS safe now? Does it appear this morning that Dean is going to be more of a MX/TX or a TX/LA threat?

IMHO It is to early to tell. ALL interest along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida need to monitor Dean.

IMO, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi are all ruled out just going off of the GFS and GFDL Models. This looks to be a MX,TX/LA Storm.

I disagree STRONGLY that these areas are "ruled out"...the model TREND is what is important...the trend this morning is more and more northerly...and now NHC is hinting that the upper low could be a real fly in the ointment. NHC's 5 day forecast does not show any US landfall yet...the only thing NHC appears fairly certain about is that the storm is Gomex bound.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171201
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 17 20070817
115400 1507N 06016W 6967 03182 0106 +070 +070 148061 067 999 999 03
115430 1508N 06015W 6971 03165 0108 +063 +063 157056 060 053 017 03
115500 1510N 06014W 6962 03181 0104 +069 +069 153061 068 056 016 03
115530 1512N 06013W 6963 03182 9990 +056 +999 138071 072 055 021 05
115600 1514N 06012W 6962 03184 9990 +056 +999 135072 073 047 017 05
115630 1516N 06013W 6973 03165 9990 +054 +999 140068 070 049 016 01
115700 1518N 06013W 6962 03183 9990 +054 +999 140064 066 049 016 01
115730 1520N 06014W 6962 03182 9990 +054 +999 134066 066 046 017 01
115800 1522N 06014W 6957 03189 9990 +055 +999 132065 066 999 999 05
115830 1524N 06014W 6958 03191 0129 +056 +056 129069 072 999 999 03
115900 1527N 06015W 6967 03181 9990 +053 +999 127067 070 999 999 05
115930 1529N 06015W 6964 03183 0133 +056 +056 124065 065 043 010 00
120000 1531N 06016W 6960 03192 0129 +059 +059 126065 066 042 047 03
120030 1533N 06016W 6964 03189 0126 +062 +062 125066 066 042 039 03
120100 1535N 06016W 6965 03187 0138 +054 +054 121068 069 999 999 03
120130 1537N 06016W 6964 03189 0139 +053 +053 122063 065 044 056 03
120200 1539N 06017W 6960 03201 0142 +057 +057 123061 063 999 999 03
120230 1540N 06019W 6963 03193 0130 +064 +064 118060 060 999 999 03
120300 1539N 06021W 6970 03185 0133 +060 +060 116058 059 043 010 03
120330 1537N 06023W 6964 03189 0122 +066 +066 117061 061 999 999 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:01Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 17
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:54:00 15.12N 60.27W 696.7 mb 3,182 m 1010.6 mb From 148° (SSE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) - -
11:54:30 15.13N 60.25W 697.1 mb 3,165 m 1010.8 mb From 157° (SSE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 53 kts* 17 mm/hr*
11:55:00 15.17N 60.23W 696.2 mb 3,181 m 1010.4 mb From 153° (SSE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 56 kts* 16 mm/hr*
11:55:30 15.20N 60.22W 696.3 mb 3,182 m - From 138° (SE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 55 kts* 21 mm/hr*
11:56:00 15.23N 60.20W 696.2 mb 3,184 m - From 135° (SE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 47 kts* 17 mm/hr*
11:56:30 15.27N 60.22W 697.3 mb 3,165 m - From 140° (SE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 49 kts 16 mm/hr
11:57:00 15.30N 60.22W 696.2 mb 3,183 m - From 140° (SE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 49 kts 16 mm/hr
11:57:30 15.33N 60.23W 696.2 mb 3,182 m - From 134° (SE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 46 kts 17 mm/hr
11:58:00 15.37N 60.23W 695.7 mb 3,189 m - From 132° (SE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) - -
11:58:30 15.40N 60.23W 695.8 mb 3,191 m 1012.9 mb From 129° (SE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) - -
11:59:00 15.45N 60.25W 696.7 mb 3,181 m - From 127° (SE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) - -
11:59:30 15.48N 60.25W 696.4 mb 3,183 m 1013.3 mb From 124° (SE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 43 kts 10 mm/hr
12:00:00 15.52N 60.27W 696.0 mb 3,192 m 1012.9 mb From 126° (SE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 42 kts* 47 mm/hr*
12:00:30 15.55N 60.27W 696.4 mb 3,189 m 1012.6 mb From 125° (SE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 42 kts* 39 mm/hr*
12:01:00 15.58N 60.27W 696.5 mb 3,187 m 1013.8 mb From 121° (ESE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) - -
12:01:30 15.62N 60.27W 696.4 mb 3,189 m 1013.9 mb From 122° (ESE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 44 kts* 56 mm/hr*
12:02:00 15.65N 60.28W 696.0 mb 3,201 m 1014.2 mb From 123° (ESE/SE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) - -
12:02:30 15.67N 60.32W 696.3 mb 3,193 m 1013.0 mb From 118° (ESE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
12:03:00 15.65N 60.35W 697.0 mb 3,185 m 1013.3 mb From 116° (ESE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 43 kts* 10 mm/hr*
12:03:30 15.62N 60.38W 696.4 mb 3,189 m 1012.2 mb From 117° (ESE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) - -
At 11:54:00Z (first observation), the observation was 65 miles (104 km) between the NE and ENE (56°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).
At 12:03:30Z (last observation), the observation was 71 miles (114 km) to the ENE (72°) from Roseau, Dominica.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .35c-60.38

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[hiflyer]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

Looking at the plots there is almost total agreement until the Cayman's....after that the effects, or lack of, the ridging shows in how each model behaves. The fact that the GFDL and the UKM now clear the peninsula ( and the new ballyhooed HWRF just barely clips it) shows an increasing trend that has been building over several days and probably being empasized a bit by the first G4 mission. 48 hrs more of upper air sampling should settle the models down (or drive us all nuts...)

However...IMHO it is still too far out to start packing the car...but not far enough that organizing of what should go into the car should not start.

Riding the snake shows that NHC has done a pretty fair job of predicting so far....especially with no aerial recon for most of it up until now.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

I bet we see an eye today!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT11 KNHC 171203
97779 12034 60156 60309 30500 12058 07078 /3150
RMK AF304 0404A DEAN OB 10

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 12:03Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.6N 60.3W
Location: 76 miles (122 km) to the ENE (74°) from Roseau, Dominica.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 120° at 58 knots (From the ESE at ~ 66.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 7°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 7°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,150 geopotential meters

[KWT]

Yep it is slowing down by the way, over the last 9-12hrs its dropped 2mph and so its not slowing donw greatly but a small but steady slow down does seem to be occuring.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171211
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 18 20070817
120400 1536N 06024W 6963 03186 0120 +066 +066 114061 063 999 999 03
120430 1535N 06025W 6966 03182 0121 +064 +064 112060 060 999 999 03
120500 1533N 06027W 6965 03184 0128 +059 +059 115059 060 046 043 03
120530 1532N 06028W 6960 03191 0123 +060 +060 119058 059 999 999 03
120600 1531N 06030W 6958 03190 0120 +061 +061 120059 060 999 999 03
120630 1529N 06031W 6970 03171 0112 +067 +067 121061 063 999 999 03
120700 1528N 06032W 6961 03183 0113 +063 +063 122059 060 047 045 03
120730 1527N 06034W 6969 03174 0110 +065 +065 128060 061 048 017 00
120800 1526N 06035W 6963 03177 0112 +062 +062 126057 058 999 999 03
120830 1524N 06036W 6970 03170 0110 +064 +064 128061 064 049 055 03
120900 1523N 06037W 6955 03183 0108 +061 +061 125057 061 053 053 05
120930 1522N 06039W 6965 03171 0107 +063 +063 126057 059 053 038 03
121000 1521N 06040W 6966 03172 0094 +072 +072 135057 058 999 999 03
121030 1519N 06041W 6972 03160 0094 +072 +072 133055 059 999 999 03
121100 1518N 06043W 6962 03177 0075 +086 +086 127051 053 048 024 00
121130 1517N 06044W 6968 03171 0081 +083 +083 122054 056 043 040 03
121200 1516N 06045W 6967 03169 0089 +076 +076 123055 057 042 006 00
121230 1514N 06047W 6964 03171 0100 +068 +068 126058 059 043 008 00
121300 1513N 06048W 6964 03171 0108 +061 +061 123054 055 046 039 03
121330 1512N 06049W 6966 03163 0117 +052 +052 123055 056 048 029 01

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:11Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 18
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
12:04:00 15.60N 60.40W 696.3 mb 3,186 m 1012.0 mb From 114° (ESE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) - -
12:04:30 15.58N 60.42W 696.6 mb 3,182 m 1012.1 mb From 112° (ESE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
12:05:00 15.55N 60.45W 696.5 mb 3,184 m 1012.8 mb From 115° (ESE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 46 kts* 43 mm/hr*
12:05:30 15.53N 60.47W 696.0 mb 3,191 m 1012.3 mb From 119° (ESE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) - -
12:06:00 15.52N 60.50W 695.8 mb 3,190 m 1012.0 mb From 120° (ESE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
12:06:30 15.48N 60.52W 697.0 mb 3,171 m 1011.2 mb From 121° (ESE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) - -
12:07:00 15.47N 60.53W 696.1 mb 3,183 m 1011.3 mb From 122° (ESE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 47 kts* 45 mm/hr*
12:07:30 15.45N 60.57W 696.9 mb 3,174 m 1011.0 mb From 128° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 48 kts 17 mm/hr
12:08:00 15.43N 60.58W 696.3 mb 3,177 m 1011.2 mb From 126° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) - -
12:08:30 15.40N 60.60W 697.0 mb 3,170 m 1011.0 mb From 128° (SE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 49 kts* 55 mm/hr*
12:09:00 15.38N 60.62W 695.5 mb 3,183 m 1010.8 mb From 125° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 53 kts* 53 mm/hr*
12:09:30 15.37N 60.65W 696.5 mb 3,171 m 1010.7 mb From 126° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 53 kts* 38 mm/hr*
12:10:00 15.35N 60.67W 696.6 mb 3,172 m 1009.4 mb From 135° (SE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) - -
12:10:30 15.32N 60.68W 697.2 mb 3,160 m 1009.4 mb From 133° (SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) - -
12:11:00 15.30N 60.72W 696.2 mb 3,177 m 1007.5 mb From 127° (SE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 48 kts 24 mm/hr
12:11:30 15.28N 60.73W 696.8 mb 3,171 m 1008.1 mb From 122° (ESE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 43 kts* 40 mm/hr*
12:12:00 15.27N 60.75W 696.7 mb 3,169 m 1008.9 mb From 123° (ESE/SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 42 kts 6 mm/hr
12:12:30 15.23N 60.78W 696.4 mb 3,171 m 1010.0 mb From 126° (SE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 43 kts 8 mm/hr
12:13:00 15.22N 60.80W 696.4 mb 3,171 m 1010.8 mb From 123° (ESE/SE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 46 kts* 39 mm/hr*
12:13:30 15.20N 60.82W 696.6 mb 3,163 m 1011.7 mb From 123° (ESE/SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 48 kts 29 mm/hr
At 12:04:00Z (first observation), the observation was 69 miles (111 km) to the ENE (72°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 12:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 39 miles (62 km) to the E (100°) from Roseau, Dominica.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .80c-60.82

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[dwg71]

Gfdl moved north, but other tropical models moved south. The ukmet and gfs mean model update will tell if gfdl is onto something.