CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

[Diva]

I hate asking questions like this, but a lot of people disagree with me when I say winds over 100mph are possible 70-80 miles inland during a Cat. 4 or 5 hurricane. What do you guys think one can expect 70-80 miles inland?

Jasper is a similar distance from the coast. Here's some pictures of what Rita did in Jasper. Just scroll through the pics until you see Jasper.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=79174

Of course a Cat.4 or 5 would be worse.

Southergale is right. My family and I were north of Jasper about 45-50 miles or so during Rita and I will go even farther inland next time. Too much wind for me!

[tolakram]

For reference, the reason I'm using the JSL and FunkTop images is because I think they more clearly show the storms organization.

Here's a Katrina JSL image.



I figure if Dean gets organized he should start to look similar.

[HURAKAN]

1 .. 2 .. 3 .. BOOM.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171733
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 50 20070817
172400 1458N 06331W 6973 02978 9880 +078 +078 055094 095 999 999 03
172430 1459N 06332W 6974 02999 9901 +079 +079 057093 095 071 056 03
172500 1459N 06332W 6974 02999 9902 +082 +082 058094 095 071 056 03
172530 1501N 06335W 6979 03020 9906 +098 +098 065086 090 067 017 00
172600 1501N 06335W 6979 03020 9909 +098 +098 065085 087 066 011 00
172630 1504N 06338W 6975 03044 9948 +085 +085 063079 079 062 009 00
172700 1505N 06339W 6977 03051 9965 +081 +081 063077 077 061 010 03
172730 1507N 06340W 6975 03061 9969 +084 +084 064075 076 999 999 03
172800 1508N 06341W 6976 03070 9972 +086 +086 067075 075 999 999 03
172830 1509N 06343W 6976 03076 9973 +093 +093 066071 072 057 023 03
172900 1511N 06344W 6977 03076 9976 +096 +096 069068 068 056 009 00
172930 1512N 06345W 6972 03094 9979 +100 +093 067066 067 055 006 00
173000 1513N 06347W 6980 03087 9987 +097 +097 064062 063 057 006 00
173030 1515N 06348W 6971 03101 9997 +093 +093 063060 062 057 007 00
173100 1516N 06349W 6981 03095 0000 +094 +094 063056 058 056 008 03
173130 1517N 06351W 6973 03110 0013 +088 +088 060057 057 058 009 00
173200 1517N 06351W 6973 03110 0014 +088 +088 061056 057 058 009 00
173230 1520N 06353W 6975 03107 0013 +093 +093 063055 055 057 008 00
173300 1521N 06355W 6970 03118 0022 +087 +087 062055 056 057 008 00
173330 1523N 06356W 6975 03121 0012 +097 +088 067055 057 058 008 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:33Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 50
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:24:00 14.97N 63.52W 697.3 mb 2,978 m 988.0 mb From 55° (NE) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) - -
17:24:30 14.98N 63.53W 697.4 mb 2,999 m 990.1 mb From 57° (ENE) at 93 kts (106.9 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 71 kts* 56 mm/hr*
17:25:00 14.98N 63.53W 697.4 mb 2,999 m 990.2 mb From 58° (ENE) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 71 kts* 56 mm/hr*
17:25:30 15.02N 63.58W 697.9 mb 3,020 m 990.6 mb From 65° (ENE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 90 kts (~ 103.5 mph) 67 kts 17 mm/hr
17:26:00 15.02N 63.58W 697.9 mb 3,020 m 990.9 mb From 65° (ENE) at 85 kts (97.7 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 66 kts 11 mm/hr
17:26:30 15.07N 63.63W 697.5 mb 3,044 m 994.8 mb From 63° (ENE) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 79 kts (~ 90.8 mph) 62 kts 9 mm/hr
17:27:00 15.08N 63.65W 697.7 mb 3,051 m 996.5 mb From 63° (ENE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 61 kts* 10 mm/hr*
17:27:30 15.12N 63.67W 697.5 mb 3,061 m 996.9 mb From 64° (ENE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) - -
17:28:00 15.13N 63.68W 697.6 mb 3,070 m 997.2 mb From 67° (ENE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) - -
17:28:30 15.15N 63.72W 697.6 mb 3,076 m 997.3 mb From 66° (ENE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 57 kts* 23 mm/hr*
17:29:00 15.18N 63.73W 697.7 mb 3,076 m 997.6 mb From 69° (ENE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 56 kts 9 mm/hr
17:29:30 15.20N 63.75W 697.2 mb 3,094 m 997.9 mb From 67° (ENE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 55 kts 6 mm/hr
17:30:00 15.22N 63.78W 698.0 mb 3,087 m 998.7 mb From 64° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 57 kts 6 mm/hr
17:30:30 15.25N 63.80W 697.1 mb 3,101 m 999.7 mb From 63° (ENE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 57 kts 7 mm/hr
17:31:00 15.27N 63.82W 698.1 mb 3,095 m 1000.0 mb From 63° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 56 kts* 8 mm/hr*
17:31:30 15.28N 63.85W 697.3 mb 3,110 m 1001.3 mb From 60° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 58 kts 9 mm/hr
17:32:00 15.28N 63.85W 697.3 mb 3,110 m 1001.4 mb From 61° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 58 kts 9 mm/hr
17:32:30 15.33N 63.88W 697.5 mb 3,107 m 1001.3 mb From 63° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 57 kts 8 mm/hr
17:33:00 15.35N 63.92W 697.0 mb 3,118 m 1002.2 mb From 62° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 57 kts 8 mm/hr
17:33:30 15.38N 63.93W 697.5 mb 3,121 m 1001.2 mb From 67° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 58 kts 8 mm/hr
At 17:24:00Z (first observation), the observation was 291 miles (469 km) to the SE (144°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:33:30Z (last observation), the observation was 253 miles (407 km) between the SE and SSE (146°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .92c-63.93

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

----

Still awaiting vortex.

[Innotech]

how far was Lafayette from Rita's landfall? I know we got a bit of localized damage and at least 65-70 mph wind gusts.

[fci]

GFS and EURO are both not worth the paper they're printed on. There is a reaosn why I refuse to even consider their solutions when making a forecast

GFS has a tendency to do things that go against the dynamics of the atmosphere (sending Katrina through the ridge into Myrtle Beach being its worst) and the EURO is a mid latitude, medimum range model... not a TC model

Always respect your opinions and thoughts.
So, which model(s) do you believe in, if any??

[Brent]

OK, it's not ready to bomb, it IS bombing.

I believe Ivan first bombed over the Eastern Caribbean also.

[wxmann_91]

Please read this thread, for those who save satellite images:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97168

[Pearl River]

Just looked at the new GFDL on the Accuweather site and I'm not exactly crazy about what I just saw, if it holds out.

[NCSUwpack]

Dean is really looking comfy in the Caribbean. Very impressive. He will be wobbling alright but not enough for Jamaica unfortunately..

Thanks alot! All my family is in Jamaica.

Sorry, I have enjoyed the place very much myself.. But yeah it's not good for those on the island. Either way it is going to be a very serious hurricane even if they miss the eye wall. Hopefully the speed of Dean will offset the clearly growing Dean and limit the flooding in the valleys and coastline. We all hope they are well informed and prepared..

I'm scared to death and crying my eyes out. I can't get in touch with my twin sister or my mother! I'm scared. I don't want to lose them! Please please go away storm. oh god keep it away I can't take this.

[Brent]

how far was Lafayette from Rita's landfall? I know we got a bit of localized damage and at least 65-70 mph wind gusts.

About 100 miles. Rita hit at the TX/LA border.

[fasterdisaster]

Geez Louise! Rapid intensification city! It looks like winds could be up to 125 MPH AT 2!!!

[HouTXmetro]

Just looked at the new GFDL on the Accuweather site and I'm not exactly crazy about what I just saw, if it holds out.

What does it show?

[oyster_reef]

Just looked at the new GFDL on the Accuweather site and I'm not exactly crazy about what I just saw, if it holds out.

well, what did you see?

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.4 61.7 275./19.0
6 14.8 63.5 283./17.9
12 15.1 65.2 277./16.8
18 15.6 66.9 287./16.9
24 16.2 68.6 290./17.3
30 16.4 70.2 279./16.1
36 17.1 71.7 296./15.5
42 17.9 73.6 291./19.8
48 18.5 75.4 290./18.4
54 19.3 77.2 292./18.6
60 19.9 79.0 291./17.5
66 20.6 80.7 292./17.9
72 21.5 82.3 299./17.4
78 22.5 83.9 300./17.5
84 23.5 85.3 308./16.6
90 24.7 86.9 306./18.6
96 26.0 88.3 314./18.2
102 27.4 89.6 317./17.8
108 29.0 90.8 321./19.1
114 30.5 92.1 321./18.7
120 32.1 93.1 325./18.2
126 33.4 93.8 334./14.4


12 GFDL landfall in Louisiana.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL Kills N.O now..

[fasterdisaster]

I'm scared to and crying my eyes out. I can't get in touch with my twin sister or my mother! I'm scared. I don't want to lose them! Please please go away storm. oh god keep it away I can't take this.

Try not to worry too much, I'm sure they are and will be fine. Jamaica has plenty of high land to evacuate to. As long as you have supplies ready and get to high shelter if the storm continues on track for you, you will be A-OK

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFDL Kills N.O now..

more like central Louisiana and not N.O.