CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremecane]

HWRF is slightly furthur north now. Only hits the very tip:

[tolakram]

URNT12 KNHC 171740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/17:17:00Z
B. 14 deg 46 min N
063 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb 2763 m
D. 110 kt
E. 011 deg 010 nm
F. 107 deg 124 kt
G. 011 deg 011 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 7 C/ 3046 m
J. 19 C/ 3040 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 28
MAX FL WIND 124 KT N QUAD 17:13:30 Z

Storm DEAN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 124KT (142.6mph 229.7km/h) In N Quadrant At 17:13:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 111.6KT (128.3mph 206.7km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 17, 2007 1:17:00 PM (Fri, 17 Aug 2007 17:17:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 14° 46' N 063° 16' W (14.8°N 63.3°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 110KT (126.5MPH 203.7km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 010nm (11.5miles) From Center At Bearing 011°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 124KT (142.6mph 229.7km/h) From 107°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 011nm (12.6 miles) From Center At Bearing 011°
Minimum pressure: 966 mb (28.53in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 17nm (19.6 mi 31.5km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

I would say the previous flight found the end of the ERC which is why it's now intensifying. I would hazard a guess the the ragged eye of the last day was made worse by an ERC that was hard to detect because the eye was so ragged. Thoughts?

[JTD]

Why is the pressure up 2 mb?

[Aquawind]

[/quote]

Thanks alot! All my family is in Jamaica.[/quote]

Sorry, I have enjoyed the place very much myself.. But yeah it's not good for those on the island. Either way it is going to be a very serious hurricane even if they miss the eye wall. Hopefully the speed of Dean will offset the clearly growing Dean and limit the flooding in the valleys and coastline. We all hope they are well informed and prepared..[/quote]


I'm scared to death and crying my eyes out. I can't get in touch with my twin sister or my mother! I'm scared. I don't want to lose them! Please please go away storm. oh god keep it away I can't take this.[/quote]

Well they have yet to issue watches yet so there is plenty of time and no time to get upset. Simply do what you can to contact them. I am sure they are aware of Dean as it has been news for along time. Jamaica has been through many hurricanes before. Be patient and use your resources to contact them..This is nothing new for them.

[fasterdisaster]

Models are absolutely all over the place. In my non-professional, not to be taken seriously whatsoever opinion, something between the BAMM and UKMET is most likely, but again that's almost guesswork at this point.

[Brent]

Definitely a Cat 3

URNT12 KNHC 171740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/17:17:00Z
B. 14 deg 46 min N
063 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb 2763 m
D. 110 kt
E. 011 deg 010 nm
F. 107 deg 124 kt
G. 011 deg 011 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 7 C/ 3046 m
J. 19 C/ 3040 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 28
MAX FL WIND 124 KT N QUAD 17:13:30 Z

ERC is over, big time strengthening underway. Pressure should be in the 950's before long.

[fci]

well it sure hasn't had a very good start this year. It messed up with Erin (too far south) and it has already messed up with Dean (trying to show him hitting Florida instead of the Caribbean when he was still in the central Atlantic). May be it will get it right this time, but I am really not counting on it.

I don't know what you are expecting from a model?
Initially the pattern may have looked like Florida was the destination but sinnce last weekend, the models have shown Dean to be a Carib storm which is proving to be the case.

Do you really have an expectation that a model would be correct 1- 1 1/2 weeks out?
I think that is an unfair expectation to say the least.

There is NOBODY out there that can accurately predict what a storm will do, consistently; a week to two out!

Just my opinion, of course.

[CrazyC83]

With the relatively high pressure, I'd hold the intensity at 105 kt for now rather than go to 110 kt.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171743
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 51 20070817
173400 1524N 06357W 6969 03125 0021 +091 +091 066057 060 056 008 00
173430 1525N 06359W 6978 03114 0010 +100 +092 064062 063 054 008 00
173500 1527N 06400W 6973 03122 0014 +098 +098 067065 067 051 008 03
173530 1528N 06401W 6973 03123 0014 +098 +094 067066 067 051 007 00
173600 1530N 06403W 6975 03118 0015 +097 +094 069067 067 050 007 00
173630 1530N 06403W 6975 03118 0015 +097 +092 069067 067 050 007 00
173700 1532N 06405W 6980 03117 0027 +091 +091 070067 068 049 007 00
173730 1534N 06407W 6972 03131 0033 +091 +083 068064 067 047 006 00
173800 1535N 06408W 6973 03134 0035 +095 +071 066062 062 044 006 00
173830 1537N 06410W 6979 03129 0039 +093 +078 068062 062 046 005 00
173900 1538N 06411W 6972 03137 0040 +094 +067 067062 063 046 005 00
173930 1539N 06412W 6965 03147 0049 +090 +071 068063 065 045 006 00
174000 1541N 06414W 6971 03143 0050 +090 +065 068062 063 044 005 00
174030 1543N 06416W 6969 03146 0059 +084 +076 071064 066 044 005 00
174100 1544N 06417W 6975 03145 0064 +080 +079 071067 068 044 005 00
174130 1544N 06417W 6975 03145 0071 +075 +075 071067 068 044 006 00
174200 1544N 06417W 6975 03145 0073 +076 +076 071066 067 045 005 00
174230 1549N 06422W 6972 03153 0074 +077 +069 069063 064 046 005 00
174300 1551N 06424W 6969 03156 0069 +084 +070 069062 063 045 005 00
174330 1552N 06425W 6972 03156 0068 +087 +065 069056 058 041 005 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:43Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 51
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:34:00 15.40N 63.95W 696.9 mb 3,125 m 1002.1 mb From 66° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 56 kts 8 mm/hr
17:34:30 15.42N 63.98W 697.8 mb 3,114 m 1001.0 mb From 64° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 54 kts 8 mm/hr
17:35:00 15.45N 64.00W 697.3 mb 3,122 m 1001.4 mb From 67° (ENE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 51 kts* 8 mm/hr*
17:35:30 15.47N 64.02W 697.3 mb 3,123 m 1001.4 mb From 67° (ENE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 51 kts 7 mm/hr
17:36:00 15.50N 64.05W 697.5 mb 3,118 m 1001.5 mb From 69° (ENE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 50 kts 7 mm/hr
17:36:30 15.50N 64.05W 697.5 mb 3,118 m 1001.5 mb From 69° (ENE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 50 kts 7 mm/hr
17:37:00 15.53N 64.08W 698.0 mb 3,117 m 1002.7 mb From 70° (ENE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
17:37:30 15.57N 64.12W 697.2 mb 3,131 m 1003.3 mb From 68° (ENE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 47 kts 6 mm/hr
17:38:00 15.58N 64.13W 697.3 mb 3,134 m 1003.5 mb From 66° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
17:38:30 15.62N 64.17W 697.9 mb 3,129 m 1003.9 mb From 68° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 46 kts 5 mm/hr
17:39:00 15.63N 64.18W 697.2 mb 3,137 m 1004.0 mb From 67° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 46 kts 5 mm/hr
17:39:30 15.65N 64.20W 696.5 mb 3,147 m 1004.9 mb From 68° (ENE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 45 kts 6 mm/hr
17:40:00 15.68N 64.23W 697.1 mb 3,143 m 1005.0 mb From 68° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 44 kts 5 mm/hr
17:40:30 15.72N 64.27W 696.9 mb 3,146 m 1005.9 mb From 71° (ENE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 44 kts 5 mm/hr
17:41:00 15.73N 64.28W 697.5 mb 3,145 m 1006.4 mb From 71° (ENE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 44 kts 5 mm/hr
17:41:30 15.73N 64.28W 697.5 mb 3,145 m 1007.1 mb From 71° (ENE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
17:42:00 15.73N 64.28W 697.5 mb 3,145 m 1007.3 mb From 71° (ENE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 45 kts 5 mm/hr
17:42:30 15.82N 64.37W 697.2 mb 3,153 m 1007.4 mb From 69° (ENE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 46 kts 5 mm/hr
17:43:00 15.85N 64.40W 696.9 mb 3,156 m 1006.9 mb From 69° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 45 kts 5 mm/hr
17:43:30 15.87N 64.42W 697.2 mb 3,156 m 1006.8 mb From 69° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 41 kts 5 mm/hr
At 17:34:00Z (first observation), the observation was 251 miles (404 km) between the SE and SSE (146°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:43:30Z (last observation), the observation was 207 miles (332 km) to the SSE (148°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .40c-64.42

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[Sabanic]

GFDL Kills N.O now..

more like central Louisiana and not N.O.

If that did happen, and with NO being on the NE side, Yes . . . . it would be NO, and if a Cat 3-5 worse than Katrina for them

[thunderchief]

HWRF still <900mb into cancun... GFDL... is the right outlier but since it is the GFDL... it carries some weight still.

[fasterdisaster]

The pressure is probably a few millibars higher than the minimum though, as it is looking the strongest in the east quad.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think 966mb maybe a bit high, as the winds are estimated at 125mph, and the previous advisory had 964mb

[wxmann_91]

The NW Quad is the most powerful, and they haven't sampled the winds there yet. But convection is pretty weak; cloud tops are pretty warm. Thus I believe the standard reduction doesn't apply here... I'd say borderline 2/3 right now.

[Derek Ortt]

The numerical schemes used to evaluate the equations are one factor that can affect performance, and I suspect is what leads to the whacky solutions at times.

The GFS also degrades its reolution with time. We did some tests on Ivan using the MM5, using a large outer domain of 45km produced a landfall 5 days out near Talahassee, 25 produced the correct location, but a little too fast, while 15 produced the proper track

You need to have the synoptic featured resolved with a very high resolution to get a good track. I wish the GFS would not drop their resolution from 27km after a couple of days

[Brent]

Just heard a death has been confirmed in St. Lucia

[marcane_1973]

Wow!!! That scenerio is VERY VERY bad for NO. This time they would be on the right side of the storm where there would be a pretty decent storm surge and it would not take much to do the whole katrina repeat dealio all over again especially if Dean were to strike as a Cat3 or higher.

[sevenleft]

The NW Quad is the most powerful, and they haven't sampled the winds there yet. But convection is pretty weak; cloud tops are pretty warm. Thus I believe the standard reduction doesn't apply here... I'd say borderline 2/3 right now.

They just sampled the winds in the NW eyewall on the last pass. Max was 116 knots at FL. Winds in the NORTH eyewall were 124KTS at FL a few minutes earlier.

[cycloneye]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.08.2007



HURRICANE DEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 61.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 17.08.2007 14.8N 61.7W MODERATE

00UTC 18.08.2007 15.1N 65.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 18.08.2007 15.9N 68.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2007 16.3N 71.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2007 18.1N 75.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2007 18.6N 79.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.08.2007 19.0N 83.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.08.2007 19.3N 86.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.08.2007 20.4N 89.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.08.2007 21.6N 93.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2007 22.0N 95.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 23.08.2007 24.0N 98.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2007 26.1N 100.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


More division among the models 12z UKMET is Mexico.

[Opal storm]

By Sunday we should know what general area along the Gulf coast Dean is heading for, it looked like Mexico/Texas was a good idea but now the models look lost again.