CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[sevenleft]

A drosponde in the eyewall reported a pressure of 957mb.

Yeah, what time? Cuz I'm pretty sure they have been flying home.

you actl ike thats a hard thing to believe.

The last eye dropsonde was 959MB. When the vortex message came out, they used 966MB. The 1:45PM advisory went with 961MB. I just don't know where the number came from.

[KBBOCA]

Storm Carib has a general update posted which gives some info on some of the affected islands including St. Lucia, Dominica, Barbados (does not include Martinique, however, which bore the brunt of the storm in the Lesser Antilles)

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/misc.shtml

Also, using "how close can it get" for Jamaica based on current advisory data is very sobering:

Results for Kingston, Jamaica (17.93N, 76.78W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.9N, 76.8W or about 2.4 miles (3.8 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 52.8 hours (Sunday, August 19 at 6:33PM EDT).

Please know many of us are praying for all in Jamaica this weekend. Another "Ivan-like wobble" would be wonderful. (Though even with the amazing wobble which kept the eye off of the island, Ivan hit Jamaica hard. Would be nice to have Dean totally MISS Jamaica.)

[Thunder44]

It's interesting that most of the models are further south than the GFDL. Especially the GFS, since the GFDL uses the same initializations as the GFS. I also heard that the GFDL recently has a right of track bias.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eye coming onto long range Puerto Rico radar:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... fs.6.val=1

[oyster_reef]

I don't even think its possible for Dean to beat Wilma's pressure because of the gradient.

Wilma was once-in-a-lifetime event.

and so was Katrina, and Rita, and Camille, and Andrew etc.

Wow! What a Lifetime!

[wxmann_91]

The Ensembles are interesting, but as one small note..those are 6z Ensembles and not 12z.

Yeah, I understand that. The trend though has been north. Go to the link and look at the 0Z and before.

[artist]

A drosponde in the eyewall reported a pressure of 957mb.

Yeah, what time? Cuz I'm pretty sure they have been flying home.

is this 957?


000
UZNT13 KNHC 171747
XXAA 67177 99149 70635 04343 99957 24619 34120 00890 ///// /////
92296 22415 00130 85032 20218 03120 70690 08200 05104 88999 77999
31313 09608 81722
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 31
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1482N06350W 1725 MBL WND 35619 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 67178 99149 70635 04343 00957 24619 11850 20218 22807 18815
33764 17400 44699 08000
21212 00957 34120 11937 35117 22927 00131 33921 00128 44918 35616
55912 00624 66907 00619 77903 00626 88880 02111 99868 02617 11857
02615 22850 03120 33836 03639 44802 04610 55699 05104
31313 09608 81722
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 31
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1482N06350W 1725 MBL WND 35619 AEV 00000 =

[cpdaman]

wilma's explosive rapid development is what i believe thunder may have been referring to

may not see that for a long while

[Blown Away]

Been away from the computer and a definite WNW/NW wobble since late this morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Agua]

It's interesting that most of the models are further south than the GFDL. Especially the GFS, since the GFDL uses the same initializations as the GFS. I also heard that the GFDL recently has a right of track bias.

It used to have such a bias. Who knows if they tweaked to correct for it or not.

[tailgater]

Puerto Rico Radar,
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes
On a side note, when did we pick up a radar site in Cuba.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes

[tolakram]

Rainbow ... looking very very intense.



And the visible Western Atlantic. He doesn't look so small anymore!

[LAMOM]

"Wilma was once-in-a-lifetime event.


and so was Katrina, and Rita, and Camille, and Andrew etc.

Wow! What a Lifetime!"

Well dang, I haven't hit 50 yet and I have felt the winds of 4 lifetime events...and sure hope that gfdl model is wrong...because if it isn't ...guess that will make 5

[Thunder44]

12z EC out to 24hrs: pretty much takes it NW from it is now and very near Puerto Rico and Domican Republic:

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

the satellite signature has actually deteriorated slightly, but I have no clue how in the world one would get a lower data T number.

I suspect this will undergo an EWRC in the not too distant future then really take off and expand greatly in size

[TTheriot1975]

So here is the question...will GFDL go back south again? Will the others go back North and they meet somewhere along the line. I know nobody can know for sure..but what are your hunches?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Great..Otts fave is coming out

[PTrackerLA]

Whoa wasn't expecting the GFDL to move eastward like that. That track would asolutely obliterate Lafayette. Pro mets any thoughts on the GFDL track? Please tell me you don't think it can verify! Looks like I better start thinking about preparing regardless.

[Blown Away]

Been away from the computer and a definite WNW/NW wobble since late this morning. Maybe EWRC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[JonathanBelles]

Im only going to offer a forecast track at this time, but I will do a complete forecast after the 5pm.