CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Thunder44]

Out to day 5, BOC again:

[msbee]

hi guys
St. Maarten reporting in.
All well here. We have very windy weather. about 23-30 MPH according to the airport met office.
a lot of squalls coming in, and otherwise just heavy cloud cover, but nothing serious.
I was away from my computer all day until now. Has anyone heard anything form Martinique?
and what are the conditions in PR now?

[Stormcenter]

Add another to the list.

[saintsfan1978]

Hi all. I am in LA and watching Dean with a great deal of interest. I am just wondering, could someone please explain to me- in laymans terms- the possible implications of the upper level low just off Fl peninsula as it relates to the steering of the storm?

Thanks
Monica

[hsvwx]

While the Euro has been one of the further south solutions, it definitely looks further north in this run hitting the Yucatan, in line closer with the GFS. So will the Euro go north in future runs as well? Not sure quite yet. I'm not sure if I buy a direct western route after moving wnw for such a long time. It even almost looks like it goes wsw for sometime

[Thunder44]

Out to day 6, Inland over Mexico:

[Bailey1777]

Looking at the synoptics as they are layed out now and Dean at the intensity and motion he is at right now, which model looks the closest to a realistic track for Dean in the future?

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[Cape Verde]

GFDL takes a massive storm into lower Terrebonne Parish, LA. That's the neighboring parish to where I live (Lafourche). Terrebonne was largely spared in Katrina as was Lafourche. There was substantial flooding in lower Terrebonne Parish (south of the Houma airport and points toward Chauvin, Cocodrie, Montegut, etc) due to water piling up with Hurricane Rita. All of lower Lafourche and lower Terrebonne are basically highways with about a mile of land off of each side of the highway, levees, then open water. Don't think of the Louisiana you see on a map of the United States because it doesn't look anything remotely like it did in the past. There is pretty much no levee protection and no coastal barrier islands left (they're all sandbars now). There are some smaller levees (12-15") north of Golden Meadow and then there is the Intracoastal Canal which cuts through Larose, Louisiana (about 12 miles south of where I live). Clearly if the GFDL track were to verify, there would be no way to stay in Lafource unless you were as far north as Thibodaux. All of Terrebonne would have to be evacuated and most of St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Morgan City, Patterson, etc.). People outside of south Louisiana don't realize the perils that oil and gas canals, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion have done to all of these areas that were basically hurricane proof 50 years ago. It's sad, but it's going to be a long time before it gets fixed.

And for those of you who don't think it should be fixed, just remember that many natural gas pipes are now floating in the water 3" above the sea bottom where they used to be buried under the sand. 1/5th of our nation's energy comes through this infrastructure. The estimated fix is +/- $60,000,000,000 just for the oil infrastructure.

Fortunately GFDL appears to be an outlier at this point. But if there is one other place you don't want a hurricane to hit besides the upper TX Coast if you value reasonable energy prices, it's south Central Louisiana. Trust me.

Steve

That's all true, but you fail to mention one important fact which is natural subsidence. Even without any external influences, coastal Louisiana would be sinking into the sea just as it has done for millions of years. Probably the thing which has hastened it the most is harnassing the Mississippi River, which used to provide new sediements to the Louisiana coastline instead of dumping them into the deepwater just outside the mouth.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

12Z EURO Mexico

[Bailey1777]

Was that an answer to my question KFDM or just putting the run out there.

[tailgater]

Puerto Rico Radar,
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes
On a side note, when did we pick up a radar site in Cuba.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes

You can now see the Northern half of the eye, I think

[Tenspeed]

Whoa wasn't expecting the GFDL to move eastward like that. That track would asolutely obliterate Lafayette. Pro mets any thoughts on the GFDL track? Please tell me you don't think it can verify! Looks like I better start thinking about preparing regardless.

I think we could be in trouble here.

[Innotech]

:eek: Holy Crap!!

there it is

missed seeing that last year.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is the crap that happens whe the data is added..MASS confusion!

[cheezyWXguy]

Dean is trying to wrap some very deep convection around the eye at this point and maybe obscured at times for the next couple of hours. After that I expect the inner eye to collapse, with a large outter eye, probably about 15-20miles across. After that point, I would expect some pretty fast strengthening, probably to cat 4 overnight, or maybe before

[cycloneye]

hi guys
St. Maarten reporting in.
All well here. We have very windy weather. about 23-30 MPH according to the airport met office.
a lot of squalls coming in, and otherwise just heavy cloud cover, but nothing serious.
I was away from my computer all day until now. Has anyone heard anything form Martinique?
and what are the conditions in PR now?

In PR things are still not bad,only winds in the range of 15-25 mph sustained with higher gusts especially in the mountains.No rain in San Juan yet.

[Innotech]

Whoa wasn't expecting the GFDL to move eastward like that. That track would asolutely obliterate Lafayette. Pro mets any thoughts on the GFDL track? Please tell me you don't think it can verify! Looks like I better start thinking about preparing regardless.

I think we could be in trouble here.

I doubt we would get a direct hit, but I think we might feel a portion of Deans outer winds.

[hsvwx]

If anything, this will be a good study of how far away a weakness in a ridge needs to be from a strong hurricane to influence it in a directional manner.

[x-y-no]

Hi all. I am in LA and watching Dean with a great deal of interest. I am just wondering, could someone please explain to me- in laymans terms- the possible implications of the upper level low just off Fl peninsula as it relates to the steering of the storm?

Thanks
Monica

If the mid/upper level low were to remain where it is, this would allow Dean to move more northwestward. However, this low is expected to move westward over the next couple of days. Just how far and how fast it moves is what's causing the disagreement between various models at this time.