CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Cyclone1]

I would estimate 120 kt right now. My pressure guess is 946mb.

A 15mbar pressure drop in 2 hours? I doubt that, though it does look stronger.

[sevenleft]

I would estimate 120 kt right now. My pressure guess is 946mb.

A 15mbar pressure drop in 2 hours? I doubt that, though it does look stronger.

It's been 6 hours since the last vortex message.

[Innotech]

the eye did clear out rather quickly and convection had some pretty explosive bursts earlier. a 15 mb drop might not be so farfetched.
Another thing people need to consider relative to this particular storm is that it is moving absurdly fast YET able to maintain this kind of intensity. Thats why it appears somewhat ragged IMO.

[Cyclone1]

I would estimate 120 kt right now. My pressure guess is 946mb.

A 15mbar pressure drop in 2 hours? I doubt that, though it does look stronger.

It's been 6 hours since the last vortex message.

Oh, ok. Then yeah, that would be a valid pressure reading.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The past 4 runs have shown an upper Texas/La landfall. We do need consistency, but for the short term I do see consistency. This is a very reliable model and one that should not be ignored. Will be watching the new run but I am not totally relying on any model. I just wonder how the GFS and GFDL could be related!? : )

The difference between a Galveston Bay and a Vermillion Bay landfall is huge, even if it's a Category 5. Vermillion Bay, and Houston gets a 20% chance of showers and a northerly wind.

not always. It all depends on the storm heading, storm strength and storm size. If a Category 5 were heading in a WNW or NW direction at landfall and was huge, then even in Houston you could expect gusty, possibly tropical storm force, winds and some heavy rains.

[CronkPSU]

I would estimate 120 kt right now. My pressure guess is 946mb.

A 15mbar pressure drop in 2 hours? I doubt that, though it does look stronger.

never underestimate the power of wishful thinking! to be honest, if i could see any fish in this thing, I would be rooting hard for it as well

[wxman57]

Evening, all. As you can see, I don't have much time to post as I'm working at least 12-hr shifts until there's no more hurricane threat anywhere. From the looks of the disturbance near Africa, I may not have a day off until September. I did hear today that the NOAA G-IV aircraft are flying out ahead of Dean to gather data on the upper low over the Bahamas for input into the 00Z model runs. They did that yesterday but not in this area.

One thing I'm noticing in the model guidance is more variance beyond the next 2 days. It's clear the models don't know how to handle the upper air features in advance of Dean very well. The GFDL sees the upper low as stronger, so it steers Dean on a WNW track to western Cuba then NW toward Louisiana. So far, it's the only model doing that. The ECMWF sees the ridge as much stronger than any other model and dives Dean WSW into southern Mexico after passing nearly over Jamaica. That doesn't look likely.

I notice on recent satellite imagery that Dean is moving almost due west now, and probably at a good clip. That's a sign that the ridge remains strong to the north. I also think that Dean is now a Cat 4. It's clearly a good bit stronger than when the recon measured those 124kt FL winds. Pressure may be down in the 950mb range by now, maybe lower. I think Cat 5 looks very likely. Maybe a pressure in the 920mb range in 36 hours.

So where's Dean going? I don't think we'll have much confidence until maybe Sunday. It does appear that landfall would occur on Wednesday afternoon, possibly on the lower TX coast. That's where my forecast is now, anyway. But, being in Houston, I just got four 5-gallon gas cans out of storage to fill up in the morning. Won't take much of a track deviation to put Houston in the path of this dangerous hurricane. I don't see much to cause significant weakening prior to landfall, though I doubt that it could maintain any Cat 5 strength through the Gulf (unless it's tracking W-WNW).

I hear that they're talking about contraflow around Houston by Tuesday. That'll be too late. Squalls may reach Houston by Wednesday morning. They're going to have to start earlier. Think of Saturday as the Monday before Rita hit. By the next morning, roads were packed with evacuees which lasted from Tue-Wed prior to Rita's Saturday arrival. That would be equivalent to a traffic jam Sunday-Monday (this weekend) ahead of a Wednesday night landfall.

Better get your supplies soon, those of you on the TX coast. Tomorrow will be insanity once the NHC's track shows landfall in TX and we have nearly a Cat 5 out there.

[Derek Ortt]

GFS also had issues with Emily in 2005 under a fairly similar set-up. It kept taking Emily into the southern BOC

[Derek Ortt]

also, no G-IV flight tonight so no new data from around the storm, except from the islands

[HouTXmetro]

Let's hope the next GFDL shows a BOC/MX strike... then we in the states can sleep a little easier tonight.

[pojo]

Here in St. Croix, we've had sustained winds at 30mph with gust 45mph with occasional squalls.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wxman57 just posted his latest thoughts on this thread.. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=96959&start=3660

They are worth checking out.

[Derek Ortt]

sure that's not a spiral rainband drop? Doesn't SPL mean spiral and EYE = eye? Or am I mistaken

[PTrackerLA]

Just heard on local news that the Governor of LA has issued a state of emergency for LA to allow emergency preparedness crews to start getting ready. I think Texas is already under one. Glad that they're taking this one seriously.

[Scorpion]

Unfreakin believable. Im out the whole day and I come back and see an almost Cat 4 Dean

[canetracker]

The past 4 runs have shown an upper Texas/La landfall. We do need consistency, but for the short term I do see consistency. This is a very reliable model and one that should not be ignored. Will be watching the new run but I am not totally relying on any model. I just wonder how the GFS and GFDL could be related!? : )

The difference between a Galveston Bay and a Vermillion Bay landfall is huge, even if it's a Category 5. Vermillion Bay, and Houston gets a 20% chance of showers and a northerly wind.

Same here in Louisiana, my only point is that we (upper TX/LA) should all be prepared as I do respect this model and the closer the storm gets the better it will be able to predict a landfall.

[CronkPSU]

why wouldn't they fly the gulfstream everyday? it doesn't have other responsibilities does it?

[HouTXmetro]

The past 4 runs have shown an upper Texas/La landfall. We do need consistency, but for the short term I do see consistency. This is a very reliable model and one that should not be ignored. Will be watching the new run but I am not totally relying on any model. I just wonder how the GFS and GFDL could be related!? : )

The difference between a Galveston Bay and a Vermillion Bay landfall is huge, even if it's a Category 5. Vermillion Bay, and Houston gets a 20% chance of showers and a northerly wind.

not always. It all depends on the storm heading, storm strength and storm size. If a Category 5 were heading in a WNW or NW direction at landfall and was huge, then even in Houston you could expect gusty, possibly tropical storm force, winds and some heavy rains.

i know, but it's huge in terms of the potential for damage if wether you are on the Dirty Side or not and you are atleast 50+ miles from the center.

[pojo]

sure that's not a spiral rainband drop? Doesn't SPL mean spiral and EYE = eye? Or am I mistaken

that might have been.... considering the pressure in that rainband is 1006.

[Extremeweatherguy]

why wouldn't they fly the gulfstream everyday? it doesn't have other responsibilities does it?

They did fly it up around the bahamas upper low..but that's it. That will still make for some interesting new input in the 00z models though.