CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[srainhoutx]

this ALL depends on Dean's forward Speed.

Thank You.Some Sanity

[Normandy]

I was going off the disco from 8....if vortex says 16 kts then ya its 19 mph.

[Frank P]

5:00 pm advisory said 18 knots... go figure..

[Evil Jeremy]

No, its 19 MPH now.

I read the 8pm discussion.Its 19kts.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

[MusicCityMan]

19 mph or 19 knots.. Theres a 19 involved somewhere..

[Janie2006]

I dunno what's more entertaining, watching the models shift according to their known biases or watching the comments on the board follow the models. In the short time I've spent on the board today we've gone from the awakening of the MS crew to 'the eastward shift is over; it's back to Mexico'. Is it any surprise the EURO is almost due west, or that the GFDL is the northern outlier? No. The only mystery is the GFS....which is typical for the GFS. So nothing new here. Tomorrow will probably bring an equally crazy ride. Like many have posted, we probabably won't know the state, or even country, in the crosshairs until Sunday. The models will swing until then, especially with this much disagreement.

LOL! Well, you know how it is. Anytime a major hurricane threatens the Gulf I'm going to be watching like the proverbial hawk. As if there's anything any of us could do to prevent a strike on the mainland!

[RL3AO]

885
URNT15 KNHC 180030
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 16 20070818
002030 1430N 06348W 6965 03151 0064 +079 +070 171052 052 041 003 00
002100 1432N 06349W 6967 03147 0068 +076 +069 169052 052 040 003 00
002130 1434N 06349W 6967 03150 0065 +080 +067 168052 052 042 001 00
002200 1437N 06349W 6965 03153 0065 +080 +066 166053 053 041 002 00
002230 1439N 06350W 6967 03149 0065 +080 +066 164052 052 041 001 00
002300 1441N 06350W 6967 03149 0062 +080 +066 166051 052 041 000 00
002330 1443N 06350W 6965 03150 0059 +084 +063 167052 052 043 000 00
002400 1445N 06351W 6967 03152 0065 +080 +066 167053 054 042 001 00
002430 1447N 06351W 6969 03147 0067 +078 +070 165054 054 043 001 00
002500 1450N 06352W 6966 03151 0068 +076 +068 164055 056 042 001 00
002530 1452N 06353W 6969 03148 0065 +079 +064 165055 056 042 000 00
002600 1454N 06353W 6965 03153 0063 +080 +068 164054 054 042 000 00
002630 1456N 06354W 6967 03149 0063 +080 +071 163053 054 042 000 00
002700 1458N 06354W 6964 03152 0067 +075 +075 163055 055 042 000 00
002730 1500N 06355W 6967 03151 0062 +079 +076 162055 056 043 000 00
002800 1503N 06355W 6966 03152 0065 +077 +073 159056 056 043 000 00
002830 1505N 06356W 6968 03147 0063 +080 +073 158056 057 042 000 00
002900 1507N 06356W 6965 03150 0067 +076 +076 155055 056 040 000 00
002930 1509N 06356W 6967 03151 0070 +075 +075 150053 053 041 000 00
003000 1512N 06357W 6965 03151 0071 +075 +075 147055 056 040 002 00
$$

[jwayne]

is it just me, or did that UL off of Fl come to an almost standstill the last few hours? Dean is catching it.

[deltadog03]

Yes, Dean continues to barrel along. slowed slightly, but that ULL has slowed too

[wlfpack81]

Obviously the GFDL is one model out of many used in forecasting (though it is historically one of the better ones) but just for talking points if that GFDL track or a track similar +/- 10 miles were to verify..man that would be scary. A pressure of 912mb equates to a Category 5 (usually pressure below 920mb) and a strike near Freeport would put the center about 55 miles or so (rough estimate using Google Earth) south of Downtown Houston (and about 40 miles south of where I live..gulp). Of course it's unreasonable to just look at one model and say that's exact path the storm will take, but again based on what the 18Z run was showing I figured I'd through out some mileage numbers. Don't take it as the gospel that Dean will follow this run as the models will continue to flip back and forth for the next few days. By Sunday into Monday things will become clearer.

[hurricanetrack]

I have to say that this really looks like a Mexico deal, though it is still five days out. That is the only thing that bothers me- a track forecast that is almost spot on 5-7 days out? Wow. Of course it could still be off by 300 miles and this goes way south across the southern BOC- that would qualify for a large track error at 4-5 days too.

And for everyone who said "trough is strong this season"- how's that trough doing now?

[Rainband]

Yes, Dean continues to barrel along. slowed slightly, but that ULL has slowed too

what does that mean??

[jaxfladude]

8 pm: 135 mph, 946 mb, Category 4.

EDITED to correct 135 mph wind speed (8 pm advisory was incorrect on first release)

I said in a deleted post the the winds would be 140 max sustained and the pressure would be 941mb as reported by recon, but I guess the Sat imagery said it before the next recon filght was set to enter the eye on Dean by 8pmedt midnight UTC.......and I was right kinda of.....*shakes head in shame*

[cycloneye]

I have to say that this really looks like a Mexico deal, though it is still five days out. That is the only thing that bothers me- a track forecast that is almost spot on 5-7 days out? Wow. Of course it could still be off by 300 miles and this goes way south across the southern BOC- that would qualify for a large track error at 4-5 days too.

And for everyone who said "trough is strong this season"- how's that trough doing now?

And also those who said the 2007 is a dud,dead etc.

[deltadog03]

Yes, Dean continues to barrel along. slowed slightly, but that ULL has slowed too

what does that mean??

Well, in a nutshell it allows dean to inch ever so closer to finding a weakness when it hits the central gom. Now, that dosn't mean it will happen, but its something that we need to pay VERY close attention too. Since everyone/most people love the gfs, then I will talk about it. I think the GFS is moving dean along too slowly. Its all gonna be about timing, as it is always.

[jwayne]

[quote="Rainband"][quote="deltadog03"]Yes, Dean continues to barrel along. slowed slightly, but that ULL has slowed too[/quote]what does that mean??[/quote]

I believe that as Dean gets closer to the ULL (and if the ULL does not weaken), it will exert its influence on Dean pulling the storm more northerly. How much, I have no idea.

[hurricanetrack]

The season has been "unrolled".

[vacanechaser]

I have to say that this really looks like a Mexico deal, though it is still five days out. That is the only thing that bothers me- a track forecast that is almost spot on 5-7 days out? Wow. Of course it could still be off by 300 miles and this goes way south across the southern BOC- that would qualify for a large track error at 4-5 days too.

And for everyone who said "trough is strong this season"- how's that trough doing now?

And also those who said the 2007 is a dud,dead etc.

you guys know it happens every year.. you get a few clowns that when nothing develops in july, well its over.. lol.. we knew this was coming... lol... 135mph... season dead... whatever... lol




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cheezyWXguy]

In satellite imagery, I see the large outlow tail to the northeast is weakening, as the rest of the huge outflow has been over the last few hours. The storm now appears to be focusing more energy on its core, as opposed to the rainbands...and this could be a further sign of strengthening...look out Jamaica

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed, the models will change again overnight or tomorrow. The latest wv loops just show too many variables to be so certain on a west or wnw track into mexico. Sure the high is dominating right now, but just look at the wv loops at the troughs and ull east of Florida. Too many variables right now. I don't feel LA or upper TX coast is safe yet.