CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[ExBailbonds]

Something i have not heard mentioned yet. How may frictional effects from dean coming so close to land effect the track? I know that if they come in at the right angle they can be pushed away or pulled in. But i dont know if that is even possable in this case.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep Dean is def going thru an ERC, im convinced of it now.

I agree. This is where it gets interesting... usually this results in an increase in overall size as the eye wall collapses, the max winds move outward, and a new eye forms inside. Interesting that as the ERC is starting, that a strong band of convection is forming on the outside of Dean. Turning into a classic CV monster. Perhpas Cat 5 when this ERC is complete.

[WmE]

Yea, im certain its going through an ERC also, i think when it emerhes from it it will be a Cat 5 here maybe at 8am but certanily or 11am adv.

Given the fact that ERC need some time to complete and then the storm needs to reintensify I'm going to say that there will be no Cat5 at 8am.

And, wow!! When I went to bed yesterday this has had a central pressure of 961mbar, and now...just wow.

[Sanibel]

930

150mph - borderline category 5, but NHC keeps at category 4

Outer rainbands approaching south Puerto Rico

Dean has jogged back WNW on track in last few frames

Back to bed.

[Meso]

If it's going through an EWRC now it will just be bad news..Happening upon landfall to Jamaica would have been better.Depending on when it does go through/Finish it's EWRC the landfall on Jamaica could be worse than expected instead of better due to the EWRC.

[windstorm99]

Wow, that's quite a major movement to the north, guys, and it's still continuing! 15.38N, 67.52W at 1015Z by my satellite analysis. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

The NHC's last coordinates were 15.1, 67.3 at 0900Z.

At that angle it crosses over the Dominican Republic out of the Caribbean! Yikes. I do NOT think this will continue indefinitely and fully expect a turn back to the Westnorthwest, but it may have dramatic downstream outcomes. The models will adjust north, but it's definitely a warning of what kind of northerly jog this storm can do. And when it reaches the Gulf it can only get worse--for it will be on the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned TX/LA.

Dean is right on track with the current forcast thinking....Here is a close-up infrared view of dean with the NHC'S forcast points.

[Normandy]

Normandy,

Thanks for that very insightful post a few pages back! Are there any models picking up what you said?

I'm in southern louisiana and katrina destroyed a lot of wetlands south of me. and my neighborhood flooded in '98 for earl or frances (can't remember which one, they came one after the other). So even if Dean hits the upper tx coast, if it's a cat 4 or 5, then the surge and heavy rain could make a big impact miles to the east.

Anyway, just really wanted to say thanks for the info and providing in depth analysis so we get more details that just the pre-packaged sanitized pablum fed to us from the TV mets.

Allicat,
Thanks for the kudos.
You live in Southern LA? Well, I don't see this getting out that far North to southern LA....problem is in order for a weakness THAT large to be created (and it would need to be large, remember Dean is in the Caribbean sea and not approaching the Gulf from the Atlantic), it would likely take a trough or a major eastward shift of the SE ridge (currently over the SE US). I figure for me, beaumont is as FAR east as I could see Dean going.

Models support, well, none of them really support my thinking except the GFDL (which has initialzed the storm properly as a deep hurricane). the GFS not only has Dean to slow, but has it initialized as a 1008 mb low (which doesn't make sense). For this reason, I favor the GFDL and feel a track close to it at this time is reasonable.

Now, wobbles are very important and Dean just took a VERY hefty NW jog this morning. If this passes N of Jamaica, then my track thinking will likely need to be shifted N....likely including SW and the Mid-LA coast.

[Sabanic]

With the forward speed slowing as it has, and likely to slow some more, the timeframe for US or Mexico landfall has now been pushed back, and will probably be pushed back a bit more. How do the synoptics look in 6 days as far as future path? Does anyone think there could still be a major change? Northward or Southward, East or West ?

I have loooked at them until I am starting to see double, and can't tell now. LOL

[Stormavoider]

The early visible loop looks serious.

[HollynLA]

Wow, that's quite a major movement to the north, guys, and it's still continuing! 15.38N, 67.52W at 1015Z by my satellite analysis. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

The NHC's last coordinates were 15.1, 67.3 at 0900Z.

At that angle it crosses over the Dominican Republic out of the Caribbean! Yikes. I do NOT think this will continue indefinitely and fully expect a turn back to the Westnorthwest, but it may have dramatic downstream outcomes. The models will adjust north, but it's definitely a warning of what kind of northerly jog this storm can do. And when it reaches the Gulf it can only get worse--for it will be on the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned TX/LA.

Dean is right on track with the current forcast thinking....Here is a close-up infrared view of dean with the NHC'S forcast points.

They move those point with each update, however, it may also be catching up after the due west motion it had last night. I do not like the look of the new northern component.

[windstorm99]

Hurricanes dont travel in a straight line and for me personally the NHC has done a fantastic job so far on deans track.

[P.K.]

Aeroplane has taken off.

URNT15 KNHC 181051
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 02 20070818
104100 1742N 06449W 0090 00000 0076 +324 +233 360000 000 999 999 23
104130 1742N 06449W 0091 00000 0077 +325 +231 360000 000 999 999 23
104200 1742N 06449W 0091 00000 0077 +327 +231 360000 000 999 999 23
104230 1742N 06449W 0090 00000 0077 +330 +233 360000 000 999 999 23
104300 1742N 06449W 0088 00000 0077 +329 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
104330 1742N 06449W 0091 00000 0081 +293 +230 360000 000 999 999 23
104400 1742N 06449W 0095 00000 0082 +275 +222 360000 000 999 999 23
104430 1742N 06449W 0091 00000 0080 +275 +222 360000 000 999 999 23
104500 1742N 06449W 0095 00000 0081 +275 +222 360000 000 999 999 23
104530 1742N 06449W 0093 00000 0081 +274 +221 360000 000 999 999 23
104600 1742N 06449W 0096 00000 0085 +269 +225 102016 021 999 999 23
104630 1742N 06448W 9944 00140 0096 +257 +224 097031 033 999 999 03
104700 1742N 06446W 9747 00330 0114 +240 +220 096032 033 999 999 03
104730 1742N 06445W 9349 00688 0110 +210 +203 101036 039 999 999 03
104800 1742N 06444W 8873 01137 0113 +190 +159 109043 044 999 999 03
104830 1741N 06443W 8632 01382 0118 +176 +144 112038 039 999 999 03
104900 1740N 06443W 8304 01713 0120 +151 +139 116039 040 999 999 03
104930 1739N 06445W 7957 02073 0120 +132 +121 115040 042 040 000 03
105000 1739N 06447W 7796 02249 0120 +123 +109 117038 040 040 000 03
105030 1738N 06449W 7594 02466 0112 +116 +094 120036 037 039 000 03

[Sanibel]

What is causing the big wobbles?

Is there a weakness or periphery we don't know about?

Did Dean just feel that shortwave off the east coast?

[johngaltfla]

Hurricanes dont travel in a straight line and for me personally the NHC has done a fantastic job so far on deans track.

I'm going to have to agree. This storm has pretty much been textbook so to speak thus far. And they are spot on warning about a Cat 5 because the fuel only gets richer as it moves further west. The conditions are right for another superstorm and if I were in TX or LA, I would be reviewing my hurricane plans.

The good news is, it's not the peak of the season.

The bad news, the peak is coming up.

[windstorm99]

First visibles coming out....

[wxwatcher91]

Definitely going though an EWRC right now. Latest (1015) satellite shows two distinct eyewalls and the eye is beginning to callapse.

[Normandy]

What is causing the big wobbles?

Is there a weakness or periphery we don't know about?

Sanibel there is a slight weakness near the edge of the ridge being caused by the ULL over FL. Once Dean approached this he promptly started a WNW course.

[Sanibel]

East coast WV shows the shortwave coming off the coast. Maybe he felt it? Maybe this is the west edge of the Atlantic ridge - and - maybe it's nothing.

[Chacor]

Latest WV...


Nice AMSUB pass from earlier...

[wxwonder12]

Does an EWRC have any significant effect on the track of the storm usually?