CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Thunder44]

6z GFDL forecast track by google:



It's also coming out now on the NCEP site:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[la wave]

The dry air core to the NW of Dean has eroded. Dean will now turn more toward the north. What else can I say?

[Sabanic]

New GFDL dModel/dt, now near border, is definitelt working in Texas' favor. Every run past day a little farther South than one before.

108 26.5 97.3 302./16.1

In my umprofessional opinion, 95% chance Houston sees no adverse weather from Dean.


Can't say the same for coast from near Tampico to somewhere North of Corpus Christi, as even South of Border landfall will have some nasty weather North of center.

He'll have to speed back up again to make that landfall occur in 108. My belief is that Dean is going to slow down some more too. I think we are 5-6 days out from the final destination

[dwg71]

That's brwnsvle

[tigergirl]

Looks like the eye starting to crash again...could be another eye wall replacement??

[Thunder44]

WHXX04 KWBC 181126
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.0 66.6 275./14.9
6 15.5 68.1 290./15.5
12 16.1 69.7 289./15.8
18 16.5 71.2 288./15.1
24 17.0 72.9 284./17.4
30 17.7 74.7 291./18.1
36 18.3 76.4 290./18.0
42 18.9 78.2 289./18.0
48 19.4 80.3 283./19.7
54 19.9 82.2 285./19.1
60 20.4 84.2 284./19.0
66 20.9 85.9 284./17.1
72 21.5 87.7 289./16.9
78 22.2 89.3 294./16.8
84 23.0 91.0 295./17.4
90 23.9 92.6 299./17.3
96 24.7 94.2 296./17.3
102 25.6 95.8 300./17.1
108 26.5 97.3 302./16.1
114 27.4 98.6 303./14.5
120 28.2 100.2 296./16.1
126 28.7 101.6 290./13.5



6z GFDL second landfall after makng the first one in NE Yucatan is near Corpus Christi.

It actually takes into the Big Bend area. Between Corpus Christi and Brownsville.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As usual the GFDL is concerning. It seems to be the only model that has predicted correctly the last few hours of northerly movement. All the other models are south of where it is now. At the present rate it will hit the 6 hour target that the GFDL has for it if not go still north of it. It is also worth noting that if one examines the last round of GFS ensemble models (0Z), one finds that all of those that go north of Jamaica hit Texas and all the ones south hit Mexico. If the last two hours is the new trend, it will pass north of Jamaica. You can see them here. The mean ensemble hits Brownsville, but if you remove the three southerly outliers, you end up with Corpus Christi too.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 4L.ens.gif

Last few frames of satellite looks like North of West movement basically over, travelling very close to due West again.


If the GFDL is near/South of border on 12Z run, I'll feel even better for my house.

OT, a much larger frog than one normally sees climbing the screens is climbing on my front living room window.

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181141
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 07 20070818
113100 1614N 06708W 6964 03118 0015 +085 +085 116061 062 050 006 00
113130 1613N 06709W 6968 03107 0020 +078 +078 116063 064 052 006 00
113200 1611N 06710W 6963 03113 0027 +071 +071 114065 066 053 008 00
113230 1610N 06711W 6967 03104 0019 +074 +074 115067 068 054 008 00
113300 1608N 06712W 6966 03103 0026 +066 +066 112071 072 053 027 00
113330 1607N 06713W 6966 03100 0026 +063 +063 112074 077 053 009 03
113400 1605N 06715W 6967 03098 0015 +070 +070 116073 076 054 008 00
113430 1604N 06716W 6964 03096 0003 +075 +075 118075 076 054 008 00
113500 1603N 06717W 6967 03090 0006 +070 +070 118075 077 057 008 00
113530 1601N 06718W 6967 03085 9993 +076 +076 119076 077 056 010 00
113600 1600N 06719W 6965 03083 9995 +071 +071 124076 077 055 017 03
113630 1558N 06720W 6964 03079 9997 +066 +066 123073 076 056 043 03
113700 1557N 06721W 6967 03070 9995 +063 +063 122075 078 999 999 05
113730 1556N 06722W 6970 03063 9990 +060 +999 126086 087 061 015 01
113800 1554N 06723W 6967 03062 9990 +061 +999 127093 100 064 021 01
113830 1553N 06724W 6968 03053 9990 +064 +999 126092 096 067 022 01
113900 1552N 06724W 6966 03055 9990 +067 +999 123079 083 067 026 01
113930 1550N 06725W 6957 03061 9990 +067 +999 124080 087 065 031 01
114000 1549N 06726W 6976 03034 9990 +065 +999 121086 088 064 028 01
114030 1548N 06727W 6960 03050 9947 +070 +070 126088 090 063 047 05
$$


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 11:41Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:31:00 16.23N 67.13W 696.4 mb 3,118 m 1001.5 mb From 116° (ESE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 50 kts 6 mm/hr
11:31:30 16.22N 67.15W 696.8 mb 3,107 m 1002.0 mb From 116° (ESE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 52 kts 6 mm/hr
11:32:00 16.18N 67.17W 696.3 mb 3,113 m 1002.7 mb From 114° (ESE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 53 kts 8 mm/hr
11:32:30 16.17N 67.18W 696.7 mb 3,104 m 1001.9 mb From 115° (ESE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 54 kts 8 mm/hr
11:33:00 16.13N 67.20W 696.6 mb 3,103 m 1002.6 mb From 112° (ESE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 53 kts 27 mm/hr
11:33:30 16.12N 67.22W 696.6 mb 3,100 m 1002.6 mb From 112° (ESE) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 53 kts* 9 mm/hr*
11:34:00 16.08N 67.25W 696.7 mb 3,098 m 1001.5 mb From 116° (ESE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 54 kts 8 mm/hr
11:34:30 16.07N 67.27W 696.4 mb 3,096 m 1000.3 mb From 118° (ESE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 54 kts 8 mm/hr
11:35:00 16.05N 67.28W 696.7 mb 3,090 m 1000.6 mb From 118° (ESE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 57 kts 8 mm/hr
11:35:30 16.02N 67.30W 696.7 mb 3,085 m 999.3 mb From 119° (ESE) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 56 kts 10 mm/hr
11:36:00 16.00N 67.32W 696.5 mb 3,083 m 999.5 mb From 124° (SE) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 55 kts* 17 mm/hr*
11:36:30 15.97N 67.33W 696.4 mb 3,079 m 999.7 mb From 123° (ESE/SE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 56 kts* 43 mm/hr*
11:37:00 15.95N 67.35W 696.7 mb 3,070 m 999.5 mb From 122° (ESE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) - -
11:37:30 15.93N 67.37W 697.0 mb 3,063 m - From 126° (SE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 61 kts 15 mm/hr
11:38:00 15.90N 67.38W 696.7 mb 3,062 m - From 127° (SE) at 93 kts (106.9 mph) 100 kts (~ 115.0 mph) 64 kts 21 mm/hr
11:38:30 15.88N 67.40W 696.8 mb 3,053 m - From 126° (SE) at 92 kts (105.8 mph) 96 kts (~ 110.4 mph) 67 kts 22 mm/hr
11:39:00 15.87N 67.40W 696.6 mb 3,055 m - From 123° (ESE/SE) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 67 kts 26 mm/hr
11:39:30 15.83N 67.42W 695.7 mb 3,061 m - From 124° (SE) at 80 kts (92.0 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 65 kts 31 mm/hr
11:40:00 15.82N 67.43W 697.6 mb 3,034 m - From 121° (ESE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 64 kts 28 mm/hr
11:40:30 15.80N 67.45W 696.0 mb 3,050 m 994.7 mb From 126° (SE) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 90 kts (~ 103.5 mph) 63 kts* 47 mm/hr*

At 11:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 167 miles (268 km) to the SSW (205°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 11:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 203 miles (326 km) to the SSW (207°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).


Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .43c-67.45

[BeaumontHorn]

if he slows down further isnt that more of a reason to turn more north on his projected track as well thus bringing more of Texas into the equation?

[Stormavoider]

Typically, How long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?

[kozzieman]

I was just listening to a MET on WWL-TV4; the CBS affilliate in NO, LA who was saying she had good news to report; the NHC's new track for Dean this morning projects a final landfall deep into Mexico; missing S TX all together. Would that be a correct assessment this morning? If so that will be very good for Houston.

[hial2]

Kudos to M Watkins...he forecasted this possibility 2 days ago

[HURAKAN]

Typically, How long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?

Usually, once every 24 to 48 hrs.

[hiflyer]

I am very concerned about the lack of news out of Martinique...from any sources. Just getting small drips and drabs...and mostly it is the same original report repeated again and again. I remember someone posting that they knew how to handle themselves and Dean was going to be no problem....looks like it was quite a problem for the islands on either side of the track from what has come out so far with at least 3 deaths on those islands. The question is on Martinique...which is built up on it's eastern, exposed, side far more than the others. If they had this problem as a cat 2 then Jamaica is really under the gun with a cat4-5 bearing down on them....especially the SE portion which includes the capitol of Kingston.

[Chacor]

Typically, How long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?

Usually, once every 24 to 48 hrs.

I think he was asking about it's duration. It depends I think. For example Sepat in the WPac, its ERC started a few days ago and ended only shortly before landfall earlier today.

[HollynLA]

Ed, I'm not seeing a due west movement at all, certainly still looks wnw with a north compenent.

[Stormavoider]

Typically, How long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?

Usually, once every 24 to 48 hrs.

I guess what I am asking is, How long does it typically take from the collapse of the eyewall untill it clears out again?

[HURAKAN]

Typically, How long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?

Usually, once every 24 to 48 hrs.

I guess what I am asking is, How long does it typically take from the collapse of the eyewall untill it clears out again?

A few hours.

[Stormavoider]

Thanks

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181151
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 08 20070818
114100 1546N 06728W 6967 03033 9935 +076 +076 126086 087 064 010 00
114130 1545N 06729W 6969 03024 9935 +068 +068 122091 094 071 052 05
114200 1544N 06730W 6964 03025 9990 +060 +999 127094 097 073 047 05
114230 1542N 06731W 6961 03018 9919 +069 +069 127096 098 073 009 00
114300 1541N 06732W 6965 03005 9897 +079 +079 128098 100 076 008 00
114330 1540N 06733W 6953 03002 9889 +073 +073 127101 102 076 009 00
114400 1538N 06734W 6979 02958 9855 +088 +088 126102 104 079 007 00
114430 1537N 06735W 6968 02961 9845 +082 +082 130103 106 083 011 01
114500 1536N 06736W 6963 02949 9822 +088 +088 129107 110 086 048 05
114530 1535N 06737W 6960 02932 9990 +089 +999 127101 103 087 056 05
114600 1534N 06739W 6965 02912 9990 +089 +999 127102 106 090 008 05
114630 1532N 06740W 6958 02903 9730 +112 +112 130109 111 093 006 00
114700 1531N 06741W 6969 02859 9726 +090 +090 133116 118 091 037 03
114730 1530N 06742W 6967 02821 9682 +091 +091 132125 129 102 019 00
114800 1529N 06744W 6965 02781 9622 +098 +098 133136 140 109 001 00
114830 1528N 06745W 6957 02738 9553 +111 +111 137143 145 121 000 00
114900 1527N 06746W 6973 02656 9475 +121 +121 140136 140 999 999 03
114930 1526N 06747W 6966 02594 9412 +117 +117 138126 131 121 001 03
115000 1525N 06748W 6976 02518 9295 +139 +139 140093 105 114 009 00
115030 1524N 06749W 6968 02487 9241 +178 +132 143059 072 077 004 00
$$

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 11:51Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 08

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:41:00 15.77N 67.47W 696.7 mb 3,033 m 993.5 mb From 126° (SE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 64 kts 10 mm/hr
11:41:30 15.75N 67.48W 696.9 mb 3,024 m 993.5 mb From 122° (ESE) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 94 kts (~ 108.1 mph) 71 kts* 52 mm/hr*
11:42:00 15.73N 67.50W 696.4 mb 3,025 m - From 127° (SE) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 97 kts (~ 111.5 mph) 73 kts* 47 mm/hr*
11:42:30 15.70N 67.52W 696.1 mb 3,018 m 991.9 mb From 127° (SE) at 96 kts (110.4 mph) 98 kts (~ 112.7 mph) 73 kts 9 mm/hr
11:43:00 15.68N 67.53W 696.5 mb 3,005 m 989.7 mb From 128° (SE) at 98 kts (112.7 mph) 100 kts (~ 115.0 mph) 76 kts 8 mm/hr
11:43:30 15.67N 67.55W 695.3 mb 3,002 m 988.9 mb From 127° (SE) at 101 kts (116.1 mph) 102 kts (~ 117.3 mph) 76 kts 9 mm/hr
11:44:00 15.63N 67.57W 697.9 mb 2,958 m 985.5 mb From 126° (SE) at 102 kts (117.3 mph) 104 kts (~ 119.6 mph) 79 kts 7 mm/hr
11:44:30 15.62N 67.58W 696.8 mb 2,961 m 984.5 mb From 130° (SE) at 103 kts (118.4 mph) 106 kts (~ 121.9 mph) 83 kts 11 mm/hr
11:45:00 15.60N 67.60W 696.3 mb 2,949 m 982.2 mb From 129° (SE) at 107 kts (123.0 mph) 110 kts (~ 126.5 mph) 86 kts* 48 mm/hr*
11:45:30 15.58N 67.62W 696.0 mb 2,932 m - From 127° (SE) at 101 kts (116.1 mph) 103 kts (~ 118.4 mph) 87 kts* 56 mm/hr*
11:46:00 15.57N 67.65W 696.5 mb 2,912 m - From 127° (SE) at 102 kts (117.3 mph) 106 kts (~ 121.9 mph) 90 kts* 8 mm/hr*
11:46:30 15.53N 67.67W 695.8 mb 2,903 m 973.0 mb From 130° (SE) at 109 kts (125.3 mph) 111 kts (~ 127.6 mph) 93 kts 6 mm/hr
11:47:00 15.52N 67.68W 696.9 mb 2,859 m 972.6 mb From 133° (SE) at 116 kts (133.4 mph) 118 kts (~ 135.7 mph) 91 kts* 37 mm/hr*
11:47:30 15.50N 67.70W 696.7 mb 2,821 m 968.2 mb From 132° (SE) at 125 kts (143.8 mph) 129 kts (~ 148.3 mph) 102 kts 19 mm/hr
11:48:00 15.48N 67.73W 696.5 mb 2,781 m 962.2 mb From 133° (SE) at 136 kts (156.4 mph) 140 kts (~ 161.0 mph) 109 kts 1 mm/hr
11:48:30 15.47N 67.75W 695.7 mb 2,738 m 955.3 mb From 137° (SE) at 143 kts (164.4 mph) 145 kts (~ 166.8 mph) 121 kts 0 mm/hr
11:49:00 15.45N 67.77W 697.3 mb 2,656 m 947.5 mb From 140° (SE) at 136 kts (156.4 mph) 140 kts (~ 161.0 mph) - -
11:49:30 15.43N 67.78W 696.6 mb 2,594 m 941.2 mb From 138° (SE) at 126 kts (144.9 mph) 131 kts (~ 150.6 mph) 121 kts* 1 mm/hr*
11:50:00 15.42N 67.80W 697.6 mb 2,518 m 929.5 mb From 140° (SE) at 93 kts (106.9 mph) 105 kts (~ 120.7 mph) 114 kts 9 mm/hr
11:50:30 15.40N 67.82W 696.8 mb 2,487 m 924.1 mb From 143° (SE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 77 kts 4 mm/hr
At 11:41:00Z (first observation), the observation was 205 miles (330 km) to the SSW (207°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 11:50:30Z (last observation), the observation was 239 miles (384 km) to the SSW (209°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).


Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .80c-67.82


Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).