CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Chacor
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#7701 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:55 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...CORE OF HURRICANE DEAN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES...
990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250 MILES...
400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122
KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.4 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#7702 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:58 am

114830 1528N 06745W 6957 02738 9553 +111 +111 137143 145 121 000 00

143 * .90 * = 128.7 knots (130 knots)
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7703 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:00 am

I think the latest guidance shows that Dean may actually miss JAM and travel just north of it inbetween the SW tip of Haiti and the island. GFS, GFDL, MM5, and HWRF all showing a slight jog to the northwest over the next 24 hrs. It's going to be close though.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Advisories & Official Forecast Maps

#7704 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:01 am

WTNT34 KNHC 181150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...CORE OF HURRICANE DEAN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES...
990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250 MILES...
400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122
KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.4 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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#7705 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:04 am

Image

Image

Latest.
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#7706 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:06 am

Stunningly beautiful storm.
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#7707 Postby Starburst » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:07 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 181201
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 09 20070818
115100 1523N 06751W 6966 02476 9209 +201 +110 142021 035 045 003 00
115130 1522N 06752W 6969 02483 9204 +221 +087 305012 017 024 004 00
115200 1521N 06754W 6964 02508 9237 +207 +079 307020 026 038 005 00
115230 1519N 06755W 6971 02525 9281 +190 +101 304042 057 053 017 00
115300 1518N 06756W 6974 02563 9990 +117 +999 309088 103 083 030 05
115330 1517N 06757W 6956 02636 9413 +141 +140 311104 113 092 033 03
115400 1516N 06758W 7003 02667 9496 +140 +129 304091 100 088 032 03
115430 1515N 06759W 6989 02735 9588 +115 +115 311088 095 085 035 03
115500 1514N 06801W 6957 02819 9631 +122 +091 307079 082 066 006 00
115530 1513N 06802W 6967 02839 9664 +128 +079 309076 077 063 004 00
115600 1512N 06803W 6963 02877 9697 +128 +088 308071 073 061 004 00
115630 1511N 06804W 6963 02899 9726 +125 +082 312066 069 061 002 00
115700 1509N 06805W 6968 02913 9760 +112 +099 315060 061 061 005 00
115730 1508N 06807W 6968 02930 9771 +116 +105 316056 058 062 006 00
115800 1507N 06808W 6964 02946 9788 +114 +107 316052 054 061 006 00
115830 1506N 06809W 6972 02949 9822 +097 +097 320049 049 062 009 00
115900 1504N 06811W 6959 02974 9819 +105 +105 322045 046 063 044 03
115930 1503N 06812W 6964 02979 9847 +095 +095 322047 048 063 055 03
120000 1502N 06813W 6956 02999 9990 +079 +999 330053 061 063 023 01
120030 1500N 06815W 6995 02966 9990 +074 +999 320063 065 061 035 01

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 12:01Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 09

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
11:51:00 15.38N 67.85W 696.6 mb 2,476 m 920.9 mb From 142° (SE) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 45 kts 3 mm/hr
11:51:30 15.37N 67.87W 696.9 mb 2,483 m 920.4 mb From 305° (NW) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 24 kts 4 mm/hr
11:52:00 15.35N 67.90W 696.4 mb 2,508 m 923.7 mb From 307° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 38 kts 5 mm/hr
11:52:30 15.32N 67.92W 697.1 mb 2,525 m 928.1 mb From 304° (NW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 53 kts 17 mm/hr
11:53:00 15.30N 67.93W 697.4 mb 2,563 m - From 309° (NW) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 103 kts (~ 118.4 mph) 83 kts* 30 mm/hr*
11:53:30 15.28N 67.95W 695.6 mb 2,636 m 941.3 mb From 311° (NW) at 104 kts (119.6 mph) 113 kts (~ 129.9 mph) 92 kts* 33 mm/hr*
11:54:00 15.27N 67.97W 700.3 mb 2,667 m 949.6 mb From 304° (NW) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 100 kts (~ 115.0 mph) 88 kts* 32 mm/hr*
11:54:30 15.25N 67.98W 698.9 mb 2,735 m 958.8 mb From 311° (NW) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 85 kts* 35 mm/hr*
11:55:00 15.23N 68.02W 695.7 mb 2,819 m 963.1 mb From 307° (NW) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 82 kts (~ 94.3 mph) 66 kts 6 mm/hr
11:55:30 15.22N 68.03W 696.7 mb 2,839 m 966.4 mb From 309° (NW) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 63 kts 4 mm/hr
11:56:00 15.20N 68.05W 696.3 mb 2,877 m 969.7 mb From 308° (NW) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 61 kts 4 mm/hr
11:56:30 15.18N 68.07W 696.3 mb 2,899 m 972.6 mb From 312° (NW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 61 kts 2 mm/hr
11:57:00 15.15N 68.08W 696.8 mb 2,913 m 976.0 mb From 315° (NW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 61 kts 5 mm/hr
11:57:30 15.13N 68.12W 696.8 mb 2,930 m 977.1 mb From 316° (NW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 62 kts 6 mm/hr
11:58:00 15.12N 68.13W 696.4 mb 2,946 m 978.8 mb From 316° (NW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 61 kts 6 mm/hr
11:58:30 15.10N 68.15W 697.2 mb 2,949 m 982.2 mb From 320° (NW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 62 kts 9 mm/hr
11:59:00 15.07N 68.18W 695.9 mb 2,974 m 981.9 mb From 322° (NW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 63 kts* 44 mm/hr*
11:59:30 15.05N 68.20W 696.4 mb 2,979 m 984.7 mb From 322° (NW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 63 kts* 55 mm/hr*
12:00:00 15.03N 68.22W 695.6 mb 2,999 m - From 330° (NNW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 63 kts 23 mm/hr
12:00:30 15.00N 68.25W 699.5 mb 2,966 m - From 320° (NW) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 61 kts 35 mm/hr
At 11:51:00Z (first observation), the observation was 241 miles (388 km) to the SSW (210°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 12:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 264 miles (425 km) to the SSE (155°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.


Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .22c-68.25


Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).
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#7708 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:07 am

Katrina's EWRC that brought it to category 5:

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATRINA DROPPED TO 940 MB AT 0932Z.
SINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS STARTED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE...WITH A FILLING OF THE EYE AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT BASED
MAINLY ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 115 KT FROM SAB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT SO FAR ARE 106 KT...WHICH
ARE LOWER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR A 940 MB HURRICANE.

----

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE
OUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS
950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT
HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE
OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS
AREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

----

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137
KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT
THE SURFACE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP
UNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

----

So 15 hours after the EWRC started, Katrina began its rapid intensification to a peak intensity of 175mph winds at 11am on the 28th.
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#7709 Postby la wave » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:11 am

As I've mentioned in other related weather sites, major hurricanes create their own environments. That is why Dean is starting to break through the dry air core and is moving poleward. Most tropical systems up to Cat.3 usually don't breach the dry air core. I have been right regarding most tropical systems during the past 6 years as far as tracks were concerned with the exception of Katrina and Rita. You can find more information at the LSU ESL website,research,Martin,2000, abstract. Thank you.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8AM page 208) Discussions, Analysis

#7710 Postby LCfromFL » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:13 am

Does the ULL moving west into FL look like it's enlongating to the SW? If I look at the center, it appears to be moving pretty much due west, but looking at the outer regions of the ULL, it appears that it has enlongated? To the point tha the far SW side is nearly touching Cuba?

Here's the link:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

My friend's husband, daughter and others DID leave for their mission trip to Haiti this morning. I'm praying that this thing keeps heading west west west and misses them completely. I know they won't have much in the way of winds on the current track. But I'm really worried about flooding and mudslides and such if this wobbles much to the north. The town they're visitng is about 50 miles north of Port Au Prince.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#7711 Postby Starburst » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:14 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 181211
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 10 20070818
120100 1459N 06816W 6966 03014 9900 +082 +082 320062 064 059 027 05
120130 1458N 06817W 6967 03020 9905 +090 +090 314067 069 051 006 00
120200 1457N 06818W 6966 03031 9937 +073 +073 314064 068 049 007 00
120230 1455N 06820W 6968 03039 9931 +084 +084 307056 059 046 008 00
120300 1454N 06821W 6961 03052 9927 +093 +092 310055 056 044 006 00
120330 1453N 06822W 6971 03046 9948 +082 +082 310050 051 043 008 00
120400 1452N 06823W 6967 03056 9941 +091 +088 312048 049 043 006 00
120430 1451N 06825W 6967 03061 9951 +088 +086 314044 046 042 005 00
120500 1449N 06826W 6963 03069 9953 +089 +084 314044 044 042 005 00
120530 1448N 06827W 6966 03068 9960 +087 +085 314041 042 041 004 00
120600 1447N 06828W 6971 03065 9963 +089 +071 306039 041 040 005 00
120630 1446N 06830W 6969 03071 9967 +087 +077 304035 036 040 004 03
120700 1445N 06831W 6965 03079 9970 +087 +075 306035 035 039 004 00
120730 1444N 06833W 6966 03079 9971 +088 +081 308034 034 038 004 00
120800 1443N 06834W 6971 03076 9969 +094 +077 313033 035 039 004 00
120830 1443N 06836W 6965 03085 9979 +086 +086 314035 037 038 006 00
120900 1442N 06837W 6958 03092 9977 +084 +084 311033 036 039 007 03
120930 1440N 06838W 6978 03081 9998 +077 +077 313036 039 040 020 03
121000 1438N 06839W 6969 03090 9990 +085 +085 315033 034 037 006 03
121030 1437N 06840W 6967 03095 9986 +089 +089 319032 032 034 005 00
$$


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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 12:11Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 10
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
12:01:00 14.98N 68.27W 696.6 mb 3,014 m 990.0 mb From 320° (NW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 59 kts* 27 mm/hr*
12:01:30 14.97N 68.28W 696.7 mb 3,020 m 990.5 mb From 314° (NW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 51 kts 6 mm/hr
12:02:00 14.95N 68.30W 696.6 mb 3,031 m 993.7 mb From 314° (NW) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
12:02:30 14.92N 68.33W 696.8 mb 3,039 m 993.1 mb From 307° (NW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 46 kts 8 mm/hr
12:03:00 14.90N 68.35W 696.1 mb 3,052 m 992.7 mb From 310° (NW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
12:03:30 14.88N 68.37W 697.1 mb 3,046 m 994.8 mb From 310° (NW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 43 kts 8 mm/hr
12:04:00 14.87N 68.38W 696.7 mb 3,056 m 994.1 mb From 312° (NW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
12:04:30 14.85N 68.42W 696.7 mb 3,061 m 995.1 mb From 314° (NW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 42 kts 5 mm/hr
12:05:00 14.82N 68.43W 696.3 mb 3,069 m 995.3 mb From 314° (NW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 42 kts 5 mm/hr
12:05:30 14.80N 68.45W 696.6 mb 3,068 m 996.0 mb From 314° (NW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 41 kts 4 mm/hr
12:06:00 14.78N 68.47W 697.1 mb 3,065 m 996.3 mb From 306° (NW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 40 kts 5 mm/hr
12:06:30 14.77N 68.50W 696.9 mb 3,071 m 996.7 mb From 304° (NW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 40 kts* 4 mm/hr*
12:07:00 14.75N 68.52W 696.5 mb 3,079 m 997.0 mb From 306° (NW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 39 kts 4 mm/hr
12:07:30 14.73N 68.55W 696.6 mb 3,079 m 997.1 mb From 308° (NW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 38 kts 4 mm/hr
12:08:00 14.72N 68.57W 697.1 mb 3,076 m 996.9 mb From 313° (NW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 39 kts 4 mm/hr
12:08:30 14.72N 68.60W 696.5 mb 3,085 m 997.9 mb From 314° (NW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
12:09:00 14.70N 68.62W 695.8 mb 3,092 m 997.7 mb From 311° (NW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 39 kts* 7 mm/hr*
12:09:30 14.67N 68.63W 697.8 mb 3,081 m 999.8 mb From 313° (NW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 40 kts* 20 mm/hr*
12:10:00 14.63N 68.65W 696.9 mb 3,090 m - From 315° (NW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 37 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:10:30 14.62N 68.67W 696.7 mb 3,095 m 998.6 mb From 319° (NW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
At 12:01:00Z (first observation), the observation was 265 miles (426 km) to the SSE (156°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
At 12:10:30Z (last observation), the observation was 279 miles (449 km) to the SSE (163°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
 
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Derek Ortt

#7712 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:15 am

Sandy,

the 10 second wind is what is used operationally, not the 30 wind you are citing
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Thunder44
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#7713 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:15 am

URNT12 KNHC 181212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/11:51:20Z
B. 15 deg 23 min N
067 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2437 m
D. 121 kt
E. 5 deg 008 nm
F. 137 deg 145 kt
G. 050 deg 008 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 23 C/ 3041 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z
SMALL HAIL INBOUND NE QUAD
RADAR PRESENTATION EXCELLENT
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#7714 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:17 am

000
UZNT13 KNHC 181212
XXAA 68127 99154 70679 04357 99926 27211 15526 00/// ///// /////
92007 27211 15527 85754 22809 17019 70453 23869 30011 88999 77999
31313 09608 81151
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 1538N06787W 1154 MBL WND 16523 AEV 00000 DLM WND 17
516 926706 WL150 16525 075 =
XXBB 68128 99154 70679 04357 00926 27211 11850 22809 22831 21816
33751 23662 44721 22063 55711 24668 66697 22465
21212 00926 15526 11850 17019 22808 16521 33783 20018 44757 20015
55745 19514 66730 15010 77717 23002 88697 30513
31313 09608 81151
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 1538N06787W 1154 MBL WND 16523 AEV 00000 DLM WND 17
516 926706 WL150 16525 075 =

Drosponde in the eye shows 926mb pressure but with 26kt surface winds being reported. So pressure might be even lower
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wxfollower

Re: Dean obs= Vortex Data Message=926 mbs,145kts NE QUAD

#7715 Postby wxfollower » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:17 am

what does small hail mean?
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Re: Dean obs= Vortex Data Message=926 mbs,145kts NE QUAD

#7716 Postby Starburst » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:18 am

Thanks Thunder :wink:
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8AM page 208) Discussions, Analysis

#7717 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:18 am

There is no eyewall replacement cycle noted by the plane.

I would urge people to put the standard disclaimer above their posts before making unsubstantiated claims.

URNT12 KNHC 181212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/11:51:20Z
B. 15 deg 23 min N
067 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2437 m
D. 121 kt
E. 5 deg 008 nm
F. 137 deg 145 kt
G. 050 deg 008 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 23 C/ 3041 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z
SMALL HAIL INBOUND NE QUAD
RADAR PRESENTATION EXCELLENT
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#7718 Postby yzerfan » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:22 am

Size-wise, how does Dean compare to Bret 1999? I seem to remember that being one scary storm hovering off the coast of Texas, and then managing to find the one point on the coast to make landfall on that had the least impact on humans.
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Re:

#7719 Postby Viper54r » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:24 am

la wave wrote:As I've mentioned in other related weather sites, major hurricanes create their own environments. That is why Dean is starting to break through the dry air core and is moving poleward. Most tropical systems up to Cat.3 usually don't breach the dry air core. I have been right regarding most tropical systems during the past 6 years as far as tracks were concerned with the exception of Katrina and Rita. You can find more information at the LSU ESL website,research,Martin,2000, abstract. Thank you.

So what is your prediction for the next 4-5 days?
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Re: 6z GFDL second landfall between Brownsville/Corpus Christi

#7720 Postby Jagno » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:24 am

Why didn't the title of this thread remain for Models instead of posting one models prediction to the thread title?


Thank you for changing it back!
Last edited by Jagno on Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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