CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[caneman]

ooops sorry. So focused on motion. Makes all the difference in the world for Jamaica and down stream

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181321
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 17 20070818
131100 1453N 06743W 6970 03081 9990 +066 +999 201054 056 052 024 05
131130 1455N 06744W 6966 03082 9971 +090 +090 206059 060 050 016 00
131200 1456N 06745W 6971 03071 9976 +082 +082 212062 062 051 006 00
131230 1458N 06746W 6964 03073 9959 +089 +089 211062 063 052 007 00
131300 1459N 06748W 6968 03064 9953 +092 +080 210066 067 055 006 00
131330 1501N 06749W 6964 03061 9939 +096 +068 209068 069 054 006 00
131400 1502N 06750W 6971 03046 9933 +095 +087 210069 070 057 007 00
131430 1504N 06751W 6967 03042 9922 +093 +093 209070 071 059 007 00
131500 1505N 06753W 6969 03030 9941 +070 +070 207073 076 059 022 03
131530 1507N 06754W 6963 03025 9927 +069 +069 211078 081 063 054 03
131600 1508N 06755W 6968 03005 9903 +076 +076 207074 076 066 011 05
131630 1510N 06756W 6972 02989 9862 +100 +100 212081 085 068 008 00
131700 1511N 06758W 6962 02988 9833 +111 +111 211086 087 072 007 00
131730 1513N 06759W 6964 02971 9813 +113 +113 210087 087 069 008 00
131800 1514N 06800W 6965 02950 9800 +107 +107 210087 088 069 006 00
131830 1516N 06801W 6967 02932 9791 +099 +099 208085 086 067 006 00
131900 1517N 06803W 6972 02901 9758 +104 +104 211087 088 067 007 00
131930 1519N 06804W 6958 02899 9722 +114 +113 212092 093 070 006 00
132000 1520N 06805W 6967 02857 9692 +111 +111 213091 091 074 005 00
132030 1522N 06806W 6957 02825 9638 +121 +090 214098 101 079 003 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 13:21Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 17
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
13:11:00 14.88N 67.72W 697.0 mb 3,081 m - From 201° (SSW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 52 kts* 24 mm/hr*
13:11:30 14.92N 67.73W 696.6 mb 3,082 m 997.1 mb From 206° (SSW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 50 kts 16 mm/hr
13:12:00 14.93N 67.75W 697.1 mb 3,071 m 997.6 mb From 212° (SSW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 51 kts 6 mm/hr
13:12:30 14.97N 67.77W 696.4 mb 3,073 m 995.9 mb From 211° (SSW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 52 kts 7 mm/hr
13:13:00 14.98N 67.80W 696.8 mb 3,064 m 995.3 mb From 210° (SSW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 55 kts 6 mm/hr
13:13:30 15.02N 67.82W 696.4 mb 3,061 m 993.9 mb From 209° (SSW) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 54 kts 6 mm/hr
13:14:00 15.03N 67.83W 697.1 mb 3,046 m 993.3 mb From 210° (SSW) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 57 kts 7 mm/hr
13:14:30 15.07N 67.85W 696.7 mb 3,042 m 992.2 mb From 209° (SSW) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 59 kts 7 mm/hr
13:15:00 15.08N 67.88W 696.9 mb 3,030 m 994.1 mb From 207° (SSW) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 59 kts* 22 mm/hr*
13:15:30 15.12N 67.90W 696.3 mb 3,025 m 992.7 mb From 211° (SSW) at 78 kts (89.7 mph) 81 kts (~ 93.1 mph) 63 kts* 54 mm/hr*
13:16:00 15.13N 67.92W 696.8 mb 3,005 m 990.3 mb From 207° (SSW) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 66 kts* 11 mm/hr*
13:16:30 15.17N 67.93W 697.2 mb 2,989 m 986.2 mb From 212° (SSW) at 81 kts (93.1 mph) 85 kts (~ 97.7 mph) 68 kts 8 mm/hr
13:17:00 15.18N 67.97W 696.2 mb 2,988 m 983.3 mb From 211° (SSW) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 72 kts 7 mm/hr
13:17:30 15.22N 67.98W 696.4 mb 2,971 m 981.3 mb From 210° (SSW) at 87 kts (100.0 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 69 kts 8 mm/hr
13:18:00 15.23N 68.00W 696.5 mb 2,950 m 980.0 mb From 210° (SSW) at 87 kts (100.0 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 69 kts 6 mm/hr
13:18:30 15.27N 68.02W 696.7 mb 2,932 m 979.1 mb From 208° (SSW) at 85 kts (97.7 mph) 86 kts (~ 98.9 mph) 67 kts 6 mm/hr
13:19:00 15.28N 68.05W 697.2 mb 2,901 m 975.8 mb From 211° (SSW) at 87 kts (100.0 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 67 kts 7 mm/hr
13:19:30 15.32N 68.07W 695.8 mb 2,899 m 972.2 mb From 212° (SSW) at 92 kts (105.8 mph) 93 kts (~ 106.9 mph) 70 kts 6 mm/hr
13:20:00 15.33N 68.08W 696.7 mb 2,857 m 969.2 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 91 kts (~ 104.6 mph) 74 kts 5 mm/hr
13:20:30 15.37N 68.10W 695.7 mb 2,825 m 963.8 mb From 214° (SW) at 98 kts (112.7 mph) 101 kts (~ 116.1 mph) 79 kts 3 mm/hr
At 13:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 268 miles (431 km) to the SSW (204°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 13:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 246 miles (395 km) to the SSE (151°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

[HURAKAN]

Looking its best so far.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, Let me be the 1st to say that I have been observing your posts here for a long time and have always took them as professional decisions. You have always shown great respect for everyone here , even those that choose to cut you down for opinions not of their liking. I respect you and your professionalism. Keep up the good work. I'm a big fan.

Wooohooo...I have fans....

Thanks...

[canegrl04]

The GFDL track and intensity blew my mind.Skimming the Yucatan ,in the GOM at 190mph Hope it doesn't come to pass

[Windtalker2]

Looking its best so far.

Wouldn't it be something if the models were all wrong and Dean ended up crossing the eastern part of Cuba into the Florida Straits?

[Sabanic]

Air Force Met, Let me be the 1st to say that I have been observing your posts here for a long time and have always took them as professional decisions. You have always shown great respect for everyone here , even those that choose to cut you down for opinions not of their liking. I respect you and your professionalism. Keep up the good work. I'm a big fan.

Wooohooo...I have fans....

Thanks...

You definitely do Mike. Although there are some very intelligent posts by amateurs here, it is great to have ones like yourself, Derek, . . etc on the board with us.
We truly appreciate your knowledge & insight

[deltadog03]

AFM...morning buddy....Have you noticed how much its climbed and climbing above 15N...I mean I havn't seen this in about 7 hours, but it was hugging 15N when I went to bed..

[Normandy]

I think people need to realize that yesterday's westward motion was NOT a wobble...it was a sustained motion due to its interaction with the ridge.

Much the same, this WNW motion is in response to the interaction with the weakness on the edge of the ridge. Folks this isnt bending back W again.

[caneman]

I believe that ridge was expected to hold for another 24 to 48 hours if I'm corect so this would change things unless we see another flattening out but I don't see that

[Cape Verde]

I'm not sure why we have such faith in the GFDL model. Yes, it has been good in the past, but in the past 24 hours, it has swung from Lafayette, Louisiana to perhaps south of Brownsville.

What is that, perhaps an 800 mile swing?

How do you rely on a model that is doing that?

[caneman]

I'm not sure why we have such faith in the GFDL model. Yes, it has been good in the past, but in the past 24 hours, it has swung from Lafayette, Louisiana to perhaps south of Brownsville.

What is that, perhaps an 800 mile swing?

How do you rely on a model that is doing that?

In the short term it has been correct. And if it ends up impacting Texas it was far more correct than the others were.

[HouTXmetro]

Is Dean Growing exponentially in size? What do you all make of the rapid expansion of deep convection to the West and Northwest od Dean? Isn't that indicative of the direction he will be allowed to travel?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[sphelps8681]

Please help me understand. It seems as though the weather channel mets don't have the same theory regarding dean landfall. Based on what I have been reading the models will start to change and start moving right, if it is a correct assumption that dean passes north of jam. Just now on the weather channel the guy said the models were starting to move more to the left with a Mexico hit.

I am just concerned because I live in Lumberton, Tx which is north of Beaumont. I was here when Rita hit and don't want to go through that again.

Please help me understand.

[Air Force Met]

AFM...morning buddy....Have you noticed how much its climbed and climbing above 15N...I mean I havn't seen this in about 7 hours, but it was hugging 15N when I went to bed..

Yes. I was wondering what I was going to find after 5 hours of sleep. I think we will see a stair-step up to the WNW. These strong storms want to go to the pole...and every little kink in the ridge they take it...and ridges aren't smooth straight lines on a chart (which you all know if you've ever done a micro-analysis of a contour layer).

So here's a shout out to all you wobble-watchers out there...chill out for a while.

[Jagno]

Please help me understand. It seems as though the weather channel mets don't have the same theory regarding dean landfall. Based on what I have been reading the models will start to change and start moving right, if it is a correct assumption that dean passes north of jam. Just now on the weather channel the guy said the models were starting to move more to the left with a Mexico hit.

I am just concerned because I live in Lumberton, Tx which is north of Beaumont. I was here when Rita hit and don't want to go through that again.

Please help me understand.

I was just seeing the same thing on TWC. After being here for Rita myself I would take those pro mets advice here alot quicker than TWC. JMHO

[drezee]

URNT15 should have been out 8 minutes ago...NHC is doing that ol' holding data back thing again! Always happens when there is a drastic change in pressure or something for a system.

[dhall21]

Hey guys, I am new to this board but I have been reading your posts for days now...it looks to me like dean has been taking a more wnw turn over the past couple of hours...doesnt look like a wobble..could this affect the forecast track? or was it forecasted to do this?

[jrod]

Looking at the dvorak, it looks like it Dean may have just went though an EWRC, can any pro's verify if I saw that correctly?

We all remember what Wilma did when it had such a tiny eye, though with Dean still moving at a decent clip I do think it won't be possible for that to happen with him, at least not in the short term.

[Janie2006]

There appear to be some intense squalls in the bands well away from the center. Look at those cloud tops in the satellite imagery!

*shudder*