CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[mutley]

deleted post

If not, get out the popcorn.

[canetracker]

Stsve Lyons just said that the track is going to be shifting South.

I saw that too. I had to put TWC on mute after hearing that. He did not give a basis for his statement.

[mutley]

Stsve Lyons just said that the track is going to be shifting South.

Did he say why he thought that?

[ericinmia]

deleted post

Yeah reading that post, I was thinking the same....

[Chacor]

Can we please stop with the useless one-liners?

To get us back on track, here's Dean's track so far.

[Air Force Met]

Hate to be a wobble watcher but all these wobbles play a big factor in the endgame if they aren't corrected later:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

A definite wobble to the NW is underway.

[cycloneye]

Steve Lyons just said what the member posted.He didnt elaborated about the upper low or the synoptics.

[rainman31]

I think the weather channel has gone down hill over the years, they did not even send anyone to houston during tc allison and it was a horrible situation. I think they are mostly ken and barbie's now anyway.

[sphelps8681]

I am sure glad I found this website. I plan to go to Dallas (Lake Fork) if we need to evacuate. But if I based it on twc forecast I can tell you I would not have much time to get out.

I greatly appreciate all the expert advice and have learned alot about the weather.

You don't know how important you all are.

Thanks and keep up the good work.

Susan

[Thunder44]

Stsve Lyons just said that the track is going to be shifting South.

That is his opinion because he sees the models have been trending south, especially the GFDL.

I plotted the last two vortex fixes. There is a difference of about 25 miles from each other and they only show a slight north of due west motion.

Here is an image:

[TTheriot1975]

The eye definately looks like it is taking a good jog NW!!

[jrod]

Stsve Lyons just said that the track is going to be shifting South.

My guess is he is saying this because the ULL over Florida is moving west and he expects the storm to follow it, not run into it and possibly get pushed north. We'll see what the NHC has to say in about an hour. There is too much uncertainty.

[Extremeweatherguy]

with this NW wobble, Dean is now well north of the 5am forcast track by the NHC...and he still seems to be moving WNW or NW.

[temujin]

Hate to be a wobble watcher but all these wobbles play a big factor in the endgame if they aren't corrected later:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

A definite wobble to the NW is underway.

Don't they generally get corrected over time?

[cycloneye]

I am sure glad I found this website. I plan to go to Dallas (Lake Fork) if we need to evacuate. But if I based it on twc forecast I can tell you I would not have much time to get out.

I greatly appreciate all the expert advice and have learned alot about the weather.

You don't know how important you all are.

Thanks and keep up the good work.

Susan

Thanks for those kind words.Welcome to storm2k.

[HouTXmetro]

Steve Lyons just said what the member posted.He didnt elaborated about the upper low or the synoptics.

Maybe he is basing that on the GFDL shifting South on it's last run. Who knows???

[deltadog03]

Looks a bit NW on radar and Sat right now..

[miamicanes177]

Hate to be a wobble watcher but all these wobbles play a big factor in the endgame if they aren't corrected later:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

A definite wobble to the NW is underway.

Allen in 1980 had the same north component to it in this area. Was making a direct line for Jamaica and ended up passing them to the north.

[Normandy]

Hate to be a wobble watcher but all these wobbles play a big factor in the endgame if they aren't corrected later:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

A definite wobble to the NW is underway.

Allen in 1980 had the same north component to it in this area. Was making a direct line for Jamaica and ended up passing them to the north.

This is a differeny synoptic setup then Allen.

[robbielyn]

Since John Hope died, I lost confidence in turning to them as the weather authority if you will. Their info is strictly based on nhc and they ignore what the synoptics are showing which I think is irresponsible. The nhc may be the official authority and all should look to them but when obvious deviations are happening there is nothing wrong with cautiously notating them. It seems like everyone is ahead of them. I like Jim Cantore though hehe