CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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southerngale
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=12z GFS is rolling in

#8041 Postby southerngale » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:08 am

With none of the models shifting north anymore, are you starting to feel better, EWG?
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#8042 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:08 am

108 hrs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

landfall = Mexico. :roll:

(If only the GFS would initialize the storm better from the get go, I would be more inclined to believe it.)
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8043 Postby Opal storm » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:08 am

HollynLA wrote:
cpdaman wrote:last half hour appear to bend back more west 275 angle i will be eager to see if it moves back to a more west direction for a couple hours or if this was just a jog to the west (with a more 295 heading) to be resumed


I just looked at the loop, and am not seeing any bending back to the west at all, still looks wnw (maybe with a noth bias) to me. Can you show us what you're seeing.
I agree. I just saw it on TWC and it looks like a NW motion in the last few frames.
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#8044 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:08 am

Jamaica really needs their sheild on right now because Dean is heading right towards them! Man I can't imagine how strong this'll be after the ERC. Though I have to admit, Dean is a BEAUTY! After the Season is over, I'm voting Dean the most beautiful storm of the 07' Season.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=12z GFS is rolling in

#8045 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:09 am

southerngale wrote:With none of the models shifting north anymore, are you starting to feel better, EWG?
GFDL has landfall in Texas so I'm not sure how happy that makes him.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8046 Postby artist » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:10 am

last I heard hurricane force winds went across the center 60 miles is all, but tropical storm force has a 205 mile spread.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8047 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:10 am

I personally won't feel comfortable until Dean has made his final landfall somewhere
away from my area. I just hope he weakens before he does.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8048 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:11 am

Opal storm wrote:
HollynLA wrote:
cpdaman wrote:last half hour appear to bend back more west 275 angle i will be eager to see if it moves back to a more west direction for a couple hours or if this was just a jog to the west (with a more 295 heading) to be resumed


I just looked at the loop, and am not seeing any bending back to the west at all, still looks wnw (maybe with a noth bias) to me. Can you show us what you're seeing.
I agree. I just saw it on TWC and it looks like a NW motion in the last few frames.


yes you are right, i saw a wobble westward and i should have just chilled (because next frame was NW) but the forecaster in me wants to pick up any slight changes fast( although the long range puerto rico radar may have distorted the movement since eye was on fringe of radar), but i realize it just causes unnecessary confusion and especially if it is based on only one frame. since it went nw in the next frame it did answer my question though
Last edited by cpdaman on Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#8049 Postby Opal storm » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:11 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:108 hrs..


landfall = Mexico. :roll:

And when did Mexico suddenly get out of the woods of Dean?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=12z GFS is rolling in

#8050 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:12 am

southerngale wrote:With none of the models shifting north anymore, are you starting to feel better, EWG?
somewhat, but I also know that at 4-5 days out the center of the model consensus is usually never the place that gets hit. I will feel much better come tomorrow evening if the models still haven't changed.
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#8051 Postby sealbach » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:12 am

I'm feeling better about the southerly shitft, that's for sure.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8052 Postby Zardoz » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:12 am

Sambucol wrote:from Jeff:

Could you post a link to that?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8053 Postby Cape Verde » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:13 am

Sanibel wrote:GFDL 6z takes Dean over the top of Cancun at 180mph.


Well, that would pretty much end the tourist season for the year.
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#8054 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:15 am

Guys let's wait until the 12Z GFDL has its say before declaring an all clear.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8055 Postby kurtpage » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:15 am

In my amateur opinion....

The fact that the GFL is undervaluing the strength of this storm and making the track more west than it is actually traveling.....makes me wonder why we are even using it as a reference.

From everything (maps, charts, etc) this looks like a central Texas landfall....I just can not see it any other way.


Once again...this is my amateur opinion
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Re:

#8056 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:16 am

miamicanes177 wrote:Guys let's wait until the 12Z GFDL has its say before declaring an all clear.



Um how about we wait until it's MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO before we say all clear.
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Re:

#8057 Postby hicksta » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:16 am

miamicanes177 wrote:Guys let's wait until the 12Z GFDL has its say before declaring an all clear.

Aint in the clear till the storms inland :double:
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8058 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:17 am

Blown_away wrote:Question: If Dean gets closer than expected to Hispanola there would be interaction of the storm to the mountains and that would create friction and slow the circulation down on the NE side could that allow the circulation to be tugged NE during the interaction?


No. Depending upon how close it gets, it could disrupt it enough to cause a little weakening. But no, it's not going to have any appreciable effect on the track.

Overall, things are going pretty much as expected. I'm glad they did not upgrade to Cat 5 temporarily based on the single datum point last night. Satellite imagery remains pretty good, but not overly impressive for a Cat 4-5 hurricane. The CDO is having issues on the west side of the storm.

At any rate, I reiterate my landfall probabilities. I wouldn't "rule out" a Louisiana coast landfall, but I don't think it'd be prudent to discuss seriously a landfall farther east. I'll keep that probability at 2%, since wierder things have happened in the past. However, I think it's really most likely to see a MX or TX landfall. Confidence is increased with the latest GFDL. Now, we only really need one significant northward wobble in order to see a potential miss of the Yucatan. I don't think this is likely (a Yucatan miss), but it is a definite possibility.

Probability of hitting Yucatan: 85%
Probability of missing the Yucatan: 15%

Final landfall:
Probability of hitting Mexico: 55%
Probability of hitting Texas: 35%
Probability of hitting Louisiana: 8%
Probability of hitting east of Louisiana: 2%
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Re: Re:

#8059 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:17 am

Opal storm wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:108 hrs..


landfall = Mexico. :roll:

And when did Mexico suddenly get out of the woods of Dean?
You seemed to have left out the part of the quote that matters...

108 hrs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

landfall = Mexico. :roll:

(If only the GFS would initialize the storm better from the get go, I would be more inclined to believe it.)


Basically, I am rolling my eyes because I still do not know whether to believe this or not. If the GFS initializes the storm too weak, then it might be biased south and west. Stronger storms tend to want to go more polewards.
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#8060 Postby hicksta » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:18 am

Anyone got the GFS ensembles
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