CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cpdaman]

if i was in S. texas i would not feel any better, especially with the more northerly component in the last few frames, this to me would mean it may travel over the tip of the yucatan instead of the meatier part.

storms in s. fl (where i am) are really accelerating across the state now, i wonder if this means the ull/mid level low is moving at a good clip as well?

[canegrl04]

"Horrible bias of the GFS"

GFS + good for s*** .Why is this model taken seriously?

[mightymouse]

mayor of galveston just gave press conference.she said we need to prepare. the plan is set.no mandatory evacs yet.they are being told a south texas/n. mexico land fall for now. we will still be on alert. voluntary will be called first. 200 metro buses from houston are being brought to texas city/galveston area right now for standby.

[southerngale]

With none of the models shifting north anymore, are you starting to feel better, EWG?

GFDL has landfall in Texas so I'm not sure how happy that makes him.

But the models are well south of those of us in SE TX. That was my point.




And btw, nobody sounded the "all clear." Read again.

[fasterdisaster]

"Horrible bias of the GFS"

GFS + good for s*** .Why is this model taken seriously?

I agree. GFS is utterly idiotic and frankly always has been.

[marcane_1973]

One thing for sure Jamaica wants to see more of a NW jog because in the long run it could make A BIG DIFFERENCE of the impact of Dean. If he keeps going more north like in the last couple of frames there will be a much better chance Dean will go North of the island and Jamaica will be on the weaker side at least. Anyone that zooms in on the eye the last 3 frames can see it has now made a BIG NW jog and if you follow that movement it would take the center of Dean North of Jamaica. Now if it wobbles back due West soon then your talking about the worst case scenerio for the entire island taking a direct hit and everyone in Jamaica gets maximum winds out of this. Wonder if this NW trends will be worse for Texas???

[Sabanic]

One thing for sure Jamaica wants to see more of a NW jog because in the long run it could make A BIG DIFFERENCE of the impact of Dean. If he keeps going more north like in the last couple of frames there will be a much better chance Dean will go North of the island and Jamaica will be on the weaker side at least. Anyone that zooms in on the eye the last 3 frames can see it has now made a BIG NW jog and if you follow that movement it would take the center of Dean North of Jamaica. Now if it wobbles back due West soon then your talking about the worst case scenerio for the entire island taking a direct hit and everyone in Jamaica gets maximum winds out of this. Wonder if this NW trends will be worse for Texas???

Steady NW trends, or track would be good for Texas, but really bad for LA

[Tenspeed]

One thing for sure Jamaica wants to see more of a NW jog because in the long run it could make A BIG DIFFERENCE of the impact of Dean. If he keeps going more north like in the last couple of frames there will be a much better chance Dean will go North of the island and Jamaica will be on the weaker side at least. Anyone that zooms in on the eye the last 3 frames can see it has now made a BIG NW jog and if you follow that movement it would take the center of Dean North of Jamaica. Now if it wobbles back due West soon then your talking about the worst case scenerio for the entire island taking a direct hit and everyone in Jamaica gets maximum winds out of this. Wonder if this NW trends will be worse for Texas???

Steady NW trends, or track would be good for Texas, but really bad for LA

I am still concerned that LA is not out of the woods yet....not by a long shot

[jaxfladude]

I have been away for the last 12 hours anything of importance regarding Hurricane Dean as far as the track and intensity goes...so many pages to read a quick update with the latest info from the recon/NHC-TPC would be nice every 2 or 3 pages so that others can get the latest on Hurricane Dean....

[CourierPR]

I notice an ULL northeast of the islands that appears to be headed toward Florida. I wonder what affect, if any, it may have on the path of Dean. Also, I see what appears to be a more northerly movement on the satttelite loops.

[Typhoon_Willie]

From looking at the satellite loops it seems to me that Dean is more headed in the general direction of the jawbone of Haiti and Eastern Cuba at the moment. Which in my mind will have a definate impact on future landfall points...


Here is the Link.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It seems to me the eye may...just may move slightly to the north of Jamaica.

[btangy]

Dang, let the bashing of the GFS begin. I'm not sure why people are discounting it immediately. It's important not to let your own bias get in the way, whether you are aware of it or not.

The fact is the resolution of the GFS doesn't allow it to represent the inner core of the tropical cyclone very well. We don't have the computing power to do this. But, it does represent larger scale features important for the steering of the storm well, which is far more important than getting the strength of the storm correct. If it were the opposite, then one wouldn't expect the models (not only the GFS) to do the slightest bit well with the track forecasts despite the gains the models have made with synoptic scale predictions.

[artist]

I just heard this in chat -

mayor of galveston just gave press conference.she said we need to prepare. the plan is set.no mandatory evacs yet.they are being told a south texas/n. mexico land fall for now. we will still be on alert. voluntary will be called first. 200 metro buses from houston are being brought to texas city/galveston area right now for standby.

[Cape Verde]

There is no way a more NW trend for the storm is better for Texas.

I remain very skeptical of a Mexican landfall other than the tip of the Yucatan, possibly.

I'm not even an amateur meteoroligist, although I can read some, but not most, weather maps, so give my opinion no weight. But I'm not blind, and I can see that the storm is tracking north of even this morning's projected track.

[kurtpage]

Dang, let the bashing of the GFS begin. I'm not sure why people are discounting it immediately. It's important not to let your own bias get in the way, whether you are aware of it or not.

The fact is the resolution of the GFS doesn't allow it to represent the inner core of the tropical cyclone very well. We don't have the computing power to do this. But, it does represent larger scale features important for the steering of the storm well, which is far more important than getting the strength of the storm correct. If it were the opposite, then one wouldn't expect the models (not only the GFS) to do the slightest bit well with the track forecasts despite the gains the models have made with synoptic scale predictions.

Not enough computing power? what is the GFS running on system wise?

[marcane_1973]

Just wanted to let you guys know that it has wobbled back due West the last frame. Mannn poor Jamaica This could end up being the worst storm to ever hit them in a long long time.

[canegrl04]

One thing for sure Jamaica wants to see more of a NW jog because in the long run it could make A BIG DIFFERENCE of the impact of Dean. If he keeps going more north like in the last couple of frames there will be a much better chance Dean will go North of the island and Jamaica will be on the weaker side at least. Anyone that zooms in on the eye the last 3 frames can see it has now made a BIG NW jog and if you follow that movement it would take the center of Dean North of Jamaica. Now if it wobbles back due West soon then your talking about the worst case scenerio for the entire island taking a direct hit and everyone in Jamaica gets maximum winds out of this. Wonder if this NW trends will be worse for Texas???

Steady NW trends, or track would be good for Texas, but really bad for LA

Current SST reading just off the LA coast : 90 degrees

[Sanibel]

Amateur opinion not to be taken as necessarily official or accurate:

If you look at the Caribbean WV loop Dean's western outflow edge is flattening in contact with the ULL upper border. So Dean is starting to come in contact with that synoptic feature.

It could be Dean is in a more steady track now under a more stable guiding feature. This would minimize those big deviations. I won't commit to a Jamaican hit, but it becomes more likely. This WNW track could be true now.

[CrazyC83]

579
URNT15 KNHC 181632
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 36 20070818
162100 1527N 06902W 6967 02912 9786 +089 +089 245072 074 070 037 03
162130 1526N 06902W 6974 02926 9811 +084 +084 242074 077 070 032 03
162200 1524N 06902W 6938 02985 9824 +082 +082 247068 075 068 016 01
162230 1523N 06902W 6967 02963 9827 +100 +100 245078 079 065 049 03
162300 1522N 06902W 6967 02978 9836 +104 +104 244072 075 064 008 20
162330 1520N 06902W 6963 02994 9845 +109 +107 247067 068 063 008 00
162400 1519N 06902W 6978 02995 9896 +075 +075 245067 070 061 009 00
162430 1517N 06902W 6967 03012 9901 +080 +080 248069 071 057 011 00
162500 1516N 06902W 6965 03019 9896 +092 +092 250066 067 056 009 00
162530 1514N 06902W 6967 03025 9904 +093 +093 251065 065 052 007 00
162600 1513N 06902W 6968 03031 9915 +090 +090 251064 064 050 007 00
162630 1511N 06902W 6963 03041 9922 +089 +089 251062 063 049 022 03
162700 1510N 06902W 6967 03045 9933 +086 +086 251059 059 049 008 00
162730 1508N 06902W 6965 03051 9944 +083 +083 249059 059 049 050 03
162800 1507N 06902W 6971 03050 9956 +080 +080 251057 058 050 043 03
162830 1505N 06902W 6963 03065 9956 +081 +081 251054 056 050 035 03
162900 1504N 06902W 6964 03068 9957 +087 +087 252051 051 047 010 00
162930 1502N 06902W 6968 03068 9959 +087 +087 253051 051 048 008 00
163000 1501N 06902W 6965 03075 9961 +089 +089 252048 049 053 024 00
163030 1459N 06902W 6965 03078 9978 +078 +078 257047 050 054 015 00
$$

Data at the eyewall is missing.

[canegrl04]

Just wanted to let you guys know that it has wobbled back due West the last frame. Mannn poor Jamaica This could end up being the worst storm to ever hit them in a long long time.

One wobble is not a trend.canes never take a straight line on its path