CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Thunder44]

642
URNT15 KNHC 191228
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 17 20070819
121800 1645N 07419W 6964 02476 9218 +184 +132 170020 028 040 006 00
121830 1644N 07421W 6968 02474 9228 +177 +124 208008 010 023 005 00
121900 1644N 07423W 6964 02491 9239 +169 +129 262003 006 016 005 03
121930 1645N 07424W 6976 02457 9228 +165 +145 023007 011 021 005 00
122000 1646N 07426W 6964 02474 9226 +168 +155 043022 029 027 006 03
122030 1648N 07427W 6967 02475 9240 +162 +143 043040 045 042 006 00
122100 1649N 07428W 6967 02495 9259 +159 +146 043054 058 048 007 00
122130 1650N 07429W 6961 02525 9286 +157 +142 045063 068 059 004 00
122200 1651N 07431W 6967 02537 9315 +152 +142 043075 081 088 007 00
122230 1653N 07432W 6957 02583 9345 +119 +119 045102 120 107 015 01
122300 1654N 07433W 6996 02582 9990 +096 +999 045129 130 105 027 01
122330 1655N 07434W 6967 02659 9990 +091 +999 047130 130 101 024 05
122400 1656N 07435W 6965 02713 9565 +087 +087 048128 130 104 008 01
122430 1657N 07436W 6967 02745 9588 +099 +099 049123 125 103 003 00
122500 1658N 07437W 6960 02783 9606 +113 +113 051119 121 108 001 00
122530 1659N 07439W 6970 02800 9642 +108 +108 053115 117 105 006 00
122600 1700N 07440W 6968 02824 9665 +109 +109 056112 117 102 009 00
122630 1702N 07441W 6966 02850 9706 +090 +090 061123 126 100 011 03
122700 1703N 07443W 6965 02870 9990 +070 +999 063135 141 099 019 05
122730 1704N 07444W 6963 02899 9990 +067 +999 060136 138 094 023 05

$$

141kts FL wind in NW Quad.

[mutley]

This is very scary for Jamacia, at least now it hasent turned into a Cat 5 and i think it will remain a CAT 4 when it hits jamicia and thats the bright side.

I certainly hope you are right about it not strengthening more. However, looking at the last few IR images, the cloud tops seem to be getting cooler, and the overall structure seems to be getting larger and more symmetrical. I hope I am wrong.

[Starburst]

What will be the effect if any of the ULL in the gulf of course, and the fact that Erin has intensified on land to tropical storm status (pretty much) have on the models?

[shawn67]

Any ideas about the size of the eyewall? In other words does the eyewall extend 10 miles from the center of the hurricane? 20? 30? Kingston is about 19.05 miles north of where the southern tip of jamaica is located. Size of the eyewall is going to be critical.

Shawn

[Aquawind]

Guantanamo Bay Cuba Radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Jamaican Radar not working for me..

[babyblue4791]

eyewall replacement still has not completed

Will someone explain eyewall replacement to me please... that is one of the only things I can not get a grasp on.
Thank you

[dwg71]

What will be the effect if any of the ULL in the gulf of course, and the fact that Erin has intensified on land to tropical storm status (pretty much) have on the models?

The ULL low will continue west and the high will continue to build in behind, former Erin is a non factor.

[Aquawind]

649
URNT15 KNHC 191238
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 18 20070819
122800 1705N 07445W 6957 02930 9990 +062 +999 056128 131 090 040 05
122830 1706N 07446W 6971 02931 9990 +060 +999 054118 119 085 022 01
122900 1708N 07447W 6957 02968 9990 +064 +999 054117 119 082 048 05
122930 1709N 07449W 6965 02974 9990 +065 +999 055113 115 079 043 05
123000 1710N 07450W 6963 02989 9892 +067 +067 057111 115 077 024 05
123030 1711N 07451W 6965 03000 9990 +064 +999 057108 112 073 056 05
123100 1712N 07453W 6966 03010 9990 +060 +999 054107 108 072 046 05
123130 1714N 07454W 6961 03028 9990 +058 +999 053106 108 999 999 05
123200 1715N 07455W 6969 03027 9954 +059 +059 055106 107 069 034 05
123230 1716N 07456W 6968 03037 9951 +071 +071 054103 104 067 010 00
123300 1717N 07458W 6967 03048 9957 +074 +074 054099 101 067 010 00
123330 1718N 07459W 6961 03070 9970 +071 +071 054096 097 064 011 00
123400 1720N 07500W 6965 03067 9967 +075 +075 055097 099 064 010 03
123430 1721N 07501W 6967 03071 9989 +066 +066 054095 097 999 999 05
123500 1722N 07503W 6964 03077 9998 +060 +060 057085 086 999 999 05
123530 1723N 07504W 6971 03078 9995 +069 +069 059086 087 056 010 03
123600 1725N 07505W 6967 03091 9998 +076 +076 059084 084 057 014 00
123630 1726N 07507W 6969 03091 0004 +075 +075 060083 083 053 008 00
123700 1727N 07508W 6968 03095 0005 +077 +077 060083 083 050 009 00
123730 1729N 07509W 6966 03103 0011 +077 +077 059083 084 051 017 00
$$



254
URNT15 KNHC 191258
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 20 20070819
124800 1757N 07539W 6965 03158 0074 +076 +076 066067 070 031 008 00
124830 1758N 07540W 6972 03151 0080 +073 +073 068062 064 030 008 00
124900 1800N 07542W 6963 03164 0074 +080 +080 068062 064 030 030 00
124930 1801N 07543W 6977 03150 0059 +093 +084 070060 064 039 008 00
125000 1802N 07544W 6960 03175 0064 +094 +075 067059 060 037 007 03
125030 1802N 07547W 6968 03166 0085 +079 +078 066058 059 999 999 03
125100 1801N 07548W 6963 03172 0082 +079 +079 064054 057 026 007 03
125130 1759N 07549W 6971 03157 0079 +077 +077 061053 055 032 008 00
125200 1757N 07549W 6966 03156 0091 +064 +064 049047 050 036 030 00
125230 1755N 07549W 6967 03159 0095 +061 +061 060058 064 033 059 03
125300 1753N 07550W 6964 03160 0076 +078 +078 061064 066 038 009 03
125330 1751N 07549W 6968 03158 0076 +077 +077 061062 062 033 006 00
125400 1749N 07549W 6965 03159 0076 +075 +075 061063 065 034 006 03
125430 1747N 07549W 6967 03157 0063 +085 +068 058065 065 036 007 00
125500 1745N 07549W 6980 03138 0073 +077 +071 058063 064 040 007 00
125530 1743N 07550W 6966 03158 0061 +087 +065 056057 057 043 006 00
125600 1741N 07550W 6965 03152 0069 +073 +073 055059 064 064 003 00
125630 1739N 07550W 6990 03122 0084 +060 +060 045062 071 040 015 01
125700 1737N 07551W 6964 03156 0064 +080 +077 051065 067 039 006 00
125730 1735N 07551W 6959 03158 0058 +084 +070 047064 065 038 005 00
$$

[HURAKAN]

The eye is clearing out.

[tolakram]

eyewall replacement still has not completed

Will someone explain eyewall replacement to me please... that is one of the only things I can not get a grasp on.
Thank you

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/412/

Pretty decent explanation.

[timNms]

I posted this in another thread, but no replies yet. Maybe you guys can answer for me

Question for the experts here.
Looking at this water vapor loop http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html there appears to be a high building over the southwestern US. looks as if it's nugding into west texas. I can see the upper low moving southeast of MS in the loop.

Question 1: What effect, if any, will the high have on the upper low's movement toward the west...could it cause the low to stall or get cut off?

Question 2: Is Dean's current slow climb in lat. due to it feeling the pull of the upper low? On the NHC's floater it looks like a NW jog has occured in the last couple of frames. Also looks to my untrained eyes that Dean is going to miss the next plot by the NHC. It appears he will go just to the north of Jamaca if this trend continues.

Question 3: Could that thing I'm calling a high building in west TX possibly be why some of the models were turning Dean due west, then southwest near the end of the runs?

Nobody seems to have the answer do they Tim,I see something there myself I think.I asked basically the same question on another board and I think everybody has bought into the solution and guess what it just may be right its just I have seen some strange kinks come up in the weather.Personally N of the Island.

Thanks for the reply. I was beginning to wonder if I was talking to myself. Used to I could post a question on this board and someone would answer right away. I suppose the new members have no idea that I've been around since almost the beginning and thought I was a newbie

[babyblue4791]

eyewall replacement still has not completed

Will someone explain eyewall replacement to me please... that is one of the only things I can not get a grasp on.
Thank you

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/412/

Pretty decent explanation.

Thank you so much. That was very helpful.

[jrod]

Guantanamo Bay Cuba Radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Jamaican Radar not working for me..

The Jamaican radar loads up but I dont see any signs of an approaching storm. The cuban radar will get very interesting throughout the day. Dean is still a monster storm, hopefully the Jamaicans are ready for the worse.

[O Town]

Those are just the outer bands coming into view now.

[jrod]

I am wondering if the ULL is trying to make it down to the surface, now there are some thunderstorms firing up near the center of it. What that could mean for the forecast is beyond me.

[Aquawind]

Guantanamo Bay Cuba Radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Jamaican Radar not working for me..

The Jamaican radar loads up but I dont see any signs of an approaching storm. The cuban radar will get very interesting throughout the day. Dean is still a monster storm, hopefully the Jamaicans are ready for the worse.

Listening to Jamaican radio..THey are trying to be positive and the weather is sooo nice. That is going to change very soon..as they are about to get gobbled up..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[jrod]

Here is a link to Cuba's radar sites. Unfortunatly the Gran Piedra radar is down, it would offer the best look at Dean right now.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

[Starburst]

What will be the effect if any of the ULL in the gulf of course, and the fact that Erin has intensified on land to tropical storm status (pretty much) have on the models?

The ULL low will continue west and the high will continue to build in behind, former Erin is a non factor.

Thanks as I was wondering since Erin decided to significantly intensify this morning.

[TampaFl]

Here is a link to Cuba's radar sites. Unfortunatly the Gran Piedra radar is down, it would offer the best look at Dean right now.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

Actually Pilon in Cuba has a little better veiw:

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

It appears the EWRC is about complete, look at last frame 5:45 and see that eye is just about cleared out, this could be worst case for Jamaica, only good sign is it appears storm will not make landfall and just skirt island on the south, worse than north side, but better than direct hit. IMO it will be border line cat 5 at its closet point to the island.