CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Recurve]

according to H-WIND, May Pen did take the brunt of the storm. I expect the worst from that city, even worse than Kingston

Yeah, I'm reading that as at least 100k sustained at the surface. Devastating.

[HURAKAN]

[wxmann_91]

J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA

That's a weak differential.

Not sold on Cat 5 yet for Dean, I'd like to see some higher cloud tops for that to happen. Although the current intensity, structure, and the Derek Ortt & NHC fcsts would argue a pretty high likelihood for 5.

[WxGuy1]

Fasterdisaster, notice the wind of 81 & 114mph bottom right corner of graph. Also this is not from weatherunderground, this is the metar obs from the Kingston Airport (MKJP).

Here are the last few obs from MKJP (Kingston):

METAR MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994
METAR MKJP 192300Z E11099OO180KT 0KM BKN008 BKN010CB OVC080 24/24 Q0998
METAR MKJP 200000Z E11099OO150KT 0KM BKN008 SCT010CB OVC080 25/24 Q1001
METAR MKJP 200200Z E110P99KT 0000 +SHRASQ BKN008 SCT010CB OVC080 25/25 Q1006
SPECI MKJP 200225Z E12096KT 0100 TSRASQ BKN008 SCT010CB OVC080 25/23 Q1007

If the E stands for "estimated", then I think they are very bad at estimating winds. I just cannot believe they had 180kt wind gusts. If E does not mean estimated, then I think there is a major instrument error. Regardless, I wouldn't trust any wind observation from MKJP, including the previous observations that had everyone talking about a 120kt wind gust. FWIW, it's worth remembering that wind GUSTS do not verify categorical winds -- it's the sustained wind that we are looking for.

I'm still surprised by the relatively warm cloud tops, particularly near the storm. IR cloud temps can be used as a rough proxy for updraft intensities, so relatively warm cloud tops don't tell me that Dean will strengthen to Cat 5 (at least not until we get more vigorous convection).

[fasterdisaster]

NHC lowered pressure to 924 mb for the advisory. Why didn't they increase the winds? Waiting for better sat presentation?

[Stratosphere747]

The NAM has generally had the same solution the last four runs in a row. 0z is not that much farther than the 18z run.

When the GFS starts shifting, then it might be worthy to look at.

[Evil Jeremy]

pressure down to 925

Warning on Yuctuan

[weatherguru18]

A serious concern now guys...it appears the ULL has stalled. Why did the NHC push the cone south??

[cycloneye]

[bAT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.][/b]

El gobierno de Mejico ahora tiene aviso de Huracan desde CHETUMAL hasta CANCUN.En addicion una vigilancia de Huracan se extiende desde el norte de Cancun hasta Ciudad del Carmen.

El gobierno de Belize ahora tiene un aviso de Huracan desde la ciudad de Belize hasta la frontera con Mejico.

[Steve]

>>Certainly didn't see that coming. Wait for more models before resuming panic though Texas.

That area is within the 5 day cone by the NHC.

Steve

[sphelps8681]

I don't buy the praying storms away stuff, but Dr. Frank does know his weather. There could be a bit of -removed- to keep the Houston viewers tuned in, but he knows more about weather than I ever will.

I agree, I mean come on people he was in charge of NHC for goodness sakes, and I just watched the video of the weathercast in question. I thought his statement was VERY reasonable, as quite frankly that low if it doesn't get to the Shore, then it could very well easily end up going to the Texas gulf coast. That is Why we keep watching this until it is dead and gone.

Texans are some what uneasy about this considering what we went through with Rita. I have read that alot of ya'll never would have predicted that scenario. But you would have never known, since most of what I heard during that time was about Katrina. I was there when it hit. Not much time to prepare. I am glad that they are keeping us on our toes unlike TWC. Dr. Frank's comments does keep me watching, which is good.

As far as I am concerned, it ain't over till the fat lady sings. Where is the Farmers Almanac when you need one. Ha Ha.

[destruction92]

The 0z NAM is starting to run ... it'll be interesting to see how it treats the ULL as well as Dean. Not that I trust this model at all ... only curious as its the first 0z model out for consumption and I'm kinda curious what it does with this low, if anything at all.

The 0z NAM is showing a landfall in far northeast Mexico.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

This is well north of the 18z run.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

That is.... unsettling, to say the least. And that is probably without the full brunt of a possible stalled ULL...

Most of the pro-mets here seem to think that the ULL is not a concern and that Texas is in good shape...I really don't see the need to be this concerned this far out, seriously.

Here is what MWatkins had to say followed by Derek Ortt's thoughts:

Quick Sunday evening update...

Dean is passing just south of Jamacia tonight, but they are on the strong side of the storm. So while they are fortunate that the eye is not passing directly over them, there will surely be reports of significant damage when Dean has cleared out tomorrow.

From there, as has been well documented by the NHC and others in this forum...the guidance has shifted significantly southward since Friday...and the upper low in the Gulf appears to be clearing the pattern quicky. There are now no models that take Dean into Texas...let alone the central Gulf as the GFDL was doing last week.

This should drive Dean into Mexico...where it may or may not emerge briefly in the Bay of Campechee before making a second Mexican landfall mid-week.

Although Texas is not "in the clear", it is hard to imagine Dean getting very far north in this steering environment. It is about as straight forward as a track forecast can be at this point.

Mexico Only: 95%
Mexico, US Landfall: 5%

MW

The eyewall scraped the south coast of Jamaica this afternoon as Dean moved to the WNW. 500mb winds and WV imagery show that the slightly north of due west track should continue for the next few days, taking Dean south of Cayman, into the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. The upper low continues to retrograde to the west and should not impart an influence on the steering. This track is adjusted somewhat south of the previous and unfortunately brings the eye inland into the more populated parts of mainland Mexico.

Dean may have weakened slightly due to the interaction with Jamaica; however, conditions are very favorable for intensification into a category 5 hurricane when it moves into the open NW Caribbean and this forecast continues to indicate a landfalling category 5 hurricane on the Yucatan. Significant weakening will occur over the Yucatan; however, re-intensification is likely once back over the water. The landfall forecast is 100KT, but cannot be reflected in the table since landfall occurs between forecast points.

[Evil Jeremy]

New track out:

[HURAKAN]

[Yankeegirl]

Looks the same as the last few runs... and if the ULL is still stalled by morning, i might get worried... but not yet...

[sphelps8681]

A serious concern now guys...it appears the ULL has stalled. Why did the NHC push the cone south??

What will this mean for Texas?

[destruction92]

>>Certainly didn't see that coming. Wait for more models before resuming panic though Texas.

That area is within the 5 day cone by the NHC.

Steve

yeah, it's an outlier...meaning that NE Mexico/Texas is less likely a target...SW Louisiana is even less likely if even possible with such a strong ridge and a ULL moving out of the way and showing no signs of stalling as some are wishfully suggesting.

[CrazyC83]

068
URNT15 KNHC 200254
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 26 20070820
024430 1830N 07940W 6967 03133 0038 +083 +074 066066 067 037 003 00
024500 1832N 07941W 6964 03136 0043 +080 +074 068067 068 039 003 00
024530 1833N 07943W 6969 03134 0049 +080 +077 069065 066 039 003 00
024600 1835N 07944W 6961 03146 0049 +081 +075 071063 064 039 003 00
024630 1836N 07946W 6962 03146 0045 +087 +067 072064 064 039 002 00
024700 1837N 07947W 6968 03143 0040 +094 +064 069062 064 039 003 00
024730 1839N 07949W 6969 03144 0047 +090 +067 071065 066 038 003 00
024800 1840N 07950W 6967 03146 0051 +087 +071 070065 066 038 002 00
024830 1842N 07952W 6967 03150 0057 +084 +076 069064 065 038 003 00
024900 1843N 07953W 6961 03155 0056 +085 +077 068062 062 999 999 03
024930 1842N 07955W 6966 03150 0055 +085 +079 066062 062 999 999 03
025000 1840N 07956W 6978 03137 0056 +085 +075 062061 061 038 003 03
025030 1838N 07957W 6967 03150 0059 +082 +080 059061 061 039 002 00
025100 1836N 07957W 6966 03149 0058 +081 +081 054059 059 039 003 00
025130 1834N 07957W 6967 03150 0054 +086 +084 055057 058 040 003 00
025200 1832N 07958W 6967 03155 0058 +086 +086 060057 057 041 002 00
025230 1830N 07958W 6967 03156 0059 +087 +075 058053 054 044 003 00
025300 1828N 07959W 6967 03155 0059 +087 +072 057052 052 045 002 00
025330 1826N 07959W 6964 03157 0061 +083 +078 056052 052 044 003 00
025400 1824N 08000W 6967 03153 0057 +085 +085 057056 057 043 002 00
$$

[sevenleft]

J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA

That's a weak differential.

Not sold on Cat 5 yet for Dean, I'd like to see some higher cloud tops for that to happen. Although the current intensity, structure, and the Derek Ortt & NHC fcsts would argue a pretty high likelihood for 5.

That isn't the differential.

[weatherguru18]

A serious concern now guys...it appears the ULL has stalled. Why did the NHC push the cone south??

What will this mean for Texas?

Dean will be slingshoted toward Texas in my opinion.