Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[TheEuropean]

31/1745 UTC 11.2N 57.6W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

That would mean 30 kts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mr. European- as a European met, do you get to see all the output of the ECMWF, or just the little bit they offer for free at the ECMWF.int web site?

[msbee]

Cyrrent Barbados weather from NOAA
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 2 PM (18) Aug 31 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) NE 26 heavy rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 31 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) ENE 26
Noon (16) Aug 31 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) ENE 29
11 AM (15) Aug 31 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) ENE 25
10 AM (14) Aug 31 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 22
9 AM (13) Aug 31 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 15 rain showers

[Buck]

Pretty gusty in Barbados!

[ronjon]

12Z HWRF still wants to dissolve the storm near Haiti/JAM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007083112-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[x-y-no]

Mr. European- as a European met, do you get to see all the output of the ECMWF, or just the little bit they offer for free at the ECMWF.int web site?

There's more than that available for us mortals as well.

For instance the Penn State e-wall offers ECMWF output (see "Model Extras" on the left-hand side).

There are others as well ... DuPage and Plymouth State come to mind ... don't have those URLs handy though.

[pojo]

HOWEVER, all that said. The way it was taught to me, though I can't find it WRITTEN anywhere, is that recon flights are not flown east of 59W. Can anyone corroborate that policy? Pojo?

Since living in the tropics, that seems to be true. And what seems to happen over and over and over again, when a system is organizing, such as today's 94L, it's always right on top of the islands before it is declared. Why 59 degrees? Is there climatological data that proves 59W is a good time to do recon?

Why not extend back to 50W, or even 55W, to give the Eastern Caribbean islands some lead time on classifying storms? Or, why not just wait until systems pass into the Caribbean and are no longer impaired by the islands? .

The reason for 55W is because of distance from St. Croix to the storm. If the flight takes 3+ hours to reach the storm, then recon can be in the system for upto 6 hours (NHC wants the same plane to get 2 fixes)... and then another 3+ hour trip back to St. Croix.... thats 12 hours flying... MAXIMUM crew duty day is 16 hours.... they have 2+15 preflight/briefings AND 0+30 debrief... plus the 12+hour flight.... Its crew safety that they are worried about the most.

[CrazyC83]

Are flights allowed to be initiated from foreign bases?

[pojo]

Are flights allowed to be initiated from foreign bases?

no.

[RL3AO]

Are flights allowed to be initiated from foreign bases?

Probably not. But St. Croix isn't foreign.

[bvigal]

I'm curious to hear opinion of anyone who looked at that quickscat (which I've posted links 2 or 3 times today) . I've heard NHC use it to determine winds, so I know they take it as credible. What about the 45kt, uncontaminated winds, and plenty of them, at 5:30 this morning? Have they really dropped 20kts? Or is the scatterometer system so inaccurate it measures 45kts for 25kts? I'm not trying to be argumentative, I really would like to learn why it is sometimes used so authoritatively by NHC, yet today seems meaningless.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas101.png

[cycloneye]

St Croix=U.S Territory

[HURAKAN]

Are flights allowed to be initiated from foreign bases?

Probably not. But St. Croix isn't foreign.

Everyone benefits from the RECON missions which should be enough for others countries to offer their bases.

[CrazyC83]

Are flights allowed to be initiated from foreign bases?

Probably not. But St. Croix isn't foreign.

I knew that. It is a US-owned dependancy.

[bvigal]

HOWEVER, all that said. The way it was taught to me, though I can't find it WRITTEN anywhere, is that recon flights are not flown east of 59W. Can anyone corroborate that policy? Pojo?

Since living in the tropics, that seems to be true. And what seems to happen over and over and over again, when a system is organizing, such as today's 94L, it's always right on top of the islands before it is declared. Why 59 degrees? Is there climatological data that proves 59W is a good time to do recon?

Why not extend back to 50W, or even 55W, to give the Eastern Caribbean islands some lead time on classifying storms? Or, why not just wait until systems pass into the Caribbean and are no longer impaired by the islands? .

The reason for 55W is because of distance from St. Croix to the storm. If the flight takes 3+ hours to reach the storm, then recon can be in the system for upto 6 hours (NHC wants the same plane to get 2 fixes)... and then another 3+ hour trip back to St. Croix.... thats 12 hours flying... MAXIMUM crew duty day is 16 hours.... they have 2+15 preflight/briefings AND 0+30 debrief... plus the 12+hour flight.... Its crew safety that they are worried about the most.

Hey, Thanks Shannon, that makes perfect sense. And as an American, I support that policy 100%!

[Ed Mahmoud]

When did Cuba start allowing overflights by the USAFR. I'd heard years ago they'd only allow the NOAA WP-3D to enter their airspace, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.


IIRC, Venezuela wouldn't allow a HH flight to enter their airspace for Ivan.

[JTD]

No upgrade on NRL site yet.

Significant?

[RL3AO]

Everyone benefits from the RECON missions which should be enough for others countries to offer their bases.

Don't need them. Keesler AFB and St. Croix cover everywhere they need to go.

And the hunters won't even get close to Venezuelan airspace.

[HURAKAN]

It seems that the NHC will wait until 5 PM for the upgrade to occur.

[CrazyC83]

Are flights allowed to be initiated from foreign bases?

Probably not. But St. Croix isn't foreign.

Everyone benefits from the RECON missions which should be enough for others countries to offer their bases.

That is true. But that would only really be useful for far-flung locations. Any flight east of 50°W (certainly east of 45°W) would likely have to start from the other side.