La Nina will form in 2007

[Jim Hughes]

I went on record with this forecast two nights ago at another well established weather forum that is visited by numerous meteorologists from around the country in both the government and private sector.

But we all know the rules around here. So I can not post the link to this discussion and my time is very limited so heres the bottom line.

A La Nina is going to develop in 2007. It most likely will end up being a moderate La Nina and I give this a 65% chance of occurring. I give it a 25% chance of becoming a strong event and just a 10% chance of it being a weak one.

Here are some things to consider. Someone posted some stats at this other forum and this guy does good research and I trust his stats. East Coast activity picks up considerably during + AMO and -PDO.

-PDO's go hand and hand La Nina's. Especially if they end up being stronger. So this could be a nerve racking year for the Carolina's if my thoughts are correct.

Some of you might doubt this forecast but just remember my call in early 2006 about the developing El Nino. Most disregarded this because of what a few MET's around here were saying or what NOAA was saying.

BTW I used this methodology last year and it worked out fine and I think it will work again this year. I am referring to the state of the stratosphere and some other forecasting variables.

You can read up on it in this discussion that I wrote up in November 2005 around here. Some have complained that it was long but I do not think that it is. Especially considering all of the complexed subject matters involved.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570

[SouthFloridawx]

I will be interested to see if this comes true jim. Thanks for taking the time to post this.

[Jim Hughes]

No problem. I got your PM and I sent you the link to the discussion. I believe it will come to be true.

[WeatherEmperor]

You were right on about El Nino last year Jim. Interesting to see what happens this year. So in your personal opinion, do you think the Carolina's would be at the greatest risk if such a La Nina were to indeed form?

<RICKY>

[gtalum]

I have to say, I've been impressed with some of your predictions in the past. They often seem crazy when you make them, but then come true. I'll be watching this one as well.

[Jim Hughes]

You were right on about El Nino last year Jim. Interesting to see what happens this year. So in your personal opinion, do you think the Carolina's would be at the greatest risk if such a La Nina were to indeed form?

<RICKY>

Some previous studies have pointed toward the La Nina and increased Carolina landfalls or brushes but a good deal of activity has happened during the past decade though and some of the past data may be skewed now.

I already mentioned what another person's research showed in reference to the -PDO and + AMO. This may be the thing to watch. There are plenty of other things to consider also.

We have plenty of time before hand. So I am sure that some better statistical research will come forward. I will eventually talk about some other things as the season gets closer.

[benny]

So what needs to happen the rest of the winter space-weather wise and stratospheric wise to get the la nina? also i remember last year you were talking about how the rapid warming in the stratosphere favored the El Nino development.. are you saying the same warm conditions aloft would favor the exact opposite? I'm a little confused. Does the warm stratosphere just favor extreme development?

[MetSul Weather Center]

Jim

You are right !! We will public this week to announce the risk of a La Niña in the next few months and that this scenario poses a major risk of rainfall deficit in Southern Brazil's regions that suffered droughts in the last three years.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim

You are right !! We will public this week to announce the risk of a La Niña in the next few months and that this scenario poses a major risk of rainfall deficit in Southern Brazil's regions that suffered droughts in the last three years.

Thanks, Glad to hear you guys are on board with this also. Does the center have a home page by any chance? I will google it.

[Jim Hughes]

Things are really getting interesting now. The only thing that has been keeping this event in check has been the IOD. It's official status would have probably been weak already if it weren't for the IOD. And we woud have easily been on our way to a moderate-strong event.

But I still believe my thoughts from last January are pretty much on schedule. I know some may have doubted this because of it's slow development. Or the lack of a positive SOI trend.

But strong negative GLAAM readings have been present for quite some time now. This negative trend points toward the atmosphere behaving like a La Nina is present.

It also seems that our friends overseas are blaming their weather problems on the La Nina.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... her126.xml

[HurricaneBill]

Isn't there a link between La Ninas and severe tornado outbreaks in the central U.S.?

[Ptarmigan]

Isn't there a link between La Ninas and severe tornado outbreaks in the central U.S.?

Some of the worst tornado outbreaks occurred in La Nina years. La Nina for Texas means it will be dry and warmer.

[Jim Hughes]

Isn't there a link between La Ninas and severe tornado outbreaks in the central U.S.?

There is nothing conclusive to my knowledge. Linking increased tornadic activity to any variable is hard to do now because of the our ability to monitor them more closely with things like dopplar radar and chasers. More people = more reports = the ability for NWS to document them. The numbers are somewhat skewed.

Although I would think that a particular phase in the ENSO, along with a couple of the other variables, might change the odds for regional activty. But it might only be for certain seasons.

[Frank2]

Well, we're now in September, so, the clock is ticking down - it also seems that the early Fall cool fronts are right on schedule, so, the La Nina cycle, if it does form, might come when the westerlies are already moving southward...

[Jim Hughes]

Well, we're now in September, so, the clock is ticking down - it also seems that the early Fall cool fronts are right on schedule, so, the La Nina cycle, if it does form, might come when the westerlies are already moving southward...

The 3.4 region has entered the weak stage already but these are just the weekly numbers. August will probably end up equal or below -.5 . So the official race is on.

I also have a feeling that some new thoughts about measuring the ENSO might surface after this event. I have no idea what you know about the IOD Frank but it has been putting a lid upon this event from the standpoint of SOI/SST's.(Australia/3.4 Region)

But the GLAAM , which is related to the westerlies/easterlies, El Nino/La Nina, has been clearly in the La Nina mode for quite some time now. These have not been weak readings either. This is why some people have been talking about the La Nina already. And I am not just referring to the British.

[benny]

Well, we're now in September, so, the clock is ticking down - it also seems that the early Fall cool fronts are right on schedule, so, the La Nina cycle, if it does form, might come when the westerlies are already moving southward...

The 3.4 region has entered the weak stage already but these are just the weekly numbers. August will probably end up equal or below -.5 . So the official race is on.

I also have a feeling that some new thoughts about measuring the ENSO might surface after this event. I have no idea what you know about the IOD Frank but it has been putting a lid upon this event from the standpoint of SOI/SST's.(Australia/3.4 Region)

But the GLAAM , which is related to the westerlies/easterlies, El Nino/La Nina, has been clearly in the La Nina mode for quite some time now. These have not been weak readings either. This is why some people have been talking about the La Nina already. And I am not just referring to the British.

This title should be changed to La Nina has formed in 2007. Very impressive SST anomalies now:



With a current trade surge, all conditions are set for moderate La Nina.