Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[jasons2k]

After seeing NOGAPS and Invest 98, I definitely need to pay more attention. If the Caribbean keeps spitting out storms, eventually one will end-up in the Gulf.

[ronjon]

Nice discussion from Tallahassee NWS this afternoon on the different synoptic set up in the GOM that the models are struggling with to some degree.

ON MONDAY...THE NAM DEEPENS THE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SLIGHTLY...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE PATH OF FELIX. THE NAM
SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE IN OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR EXTENDING DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA. THE GFS SOLUTION IS DIFFERENT. LOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH DRYER AIR IN OUR AREA. THERE IS LESS OF A CONNECTION BETWEEN TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SHOWS NO CONNECTION BETWEEN FELIX AND TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST OF US. EAST-
WEST RIDGE AXIS BLOCKS ANY CONNECTION.

TUESDAY...THE NAM DEPICTS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS REALLY AFFECTS THE PATH OF
FELIX DRAWING IT FARTHER NORTHWARD. WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED EXTENDING MORE EASTWARD AND MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH IN TEXAS BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING IS THE QUESTION...THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEEPEN...WITH NO CONNECTION TO FELIX. UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

[Sambucol]

If this storm does follow the NOGAPS model, approximately what timeframe are we looking at in terms of landfall? I realize it's just a guesstimation.

[Stratosphere747]

Euro is taking its sweet time...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Truthfully, I would be shocked if the 5pm NHC track isn't shifted at least slightly northward...

Latest models - http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

[HouTXmetro]

New HWRF is further North. Almost clears the channel

[njweather]

The NHC will always forecast in a conservative manner - simply because they have a LOT to lose if they're wrong.

[Brent]

If this storm does follow the NOGAPS model, approximately what timeframe are we looking at in terms of landfall? I realize it's just a guesstimation.

I would think in 6-7 days, so Friday or next Saturday.

[cajungal]

The models were similar in the beginning stages for Dean. Then, they trended south again. The NHC ended up being pretty much right on target with Dean from the beginning.

[Meso]

12z EURO

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NHC will always forecast in a conservative manner - simply because they have a LOT to lose if they're wrong.

Yeah, they will be conservative (and should be), but I think we will see at least a slight northward shift at 5pm. There is just no way they can ignore the fact that most models have now shifted northward.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The EURO looks further north now too. Wasn't it showing a direct hit on Nicaragua earlier? Now it has the storm moving north toward Belize.

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Houtex, I think we realy need to watch this one. This morning there was a "rush to judgement" by many of the so called "experts" on this board saying Belize and a Dean like path. I posted this morning, that the set up for this storm is totally different. Really Houtex, if you just follow a basic climo reasoning or path, you won't be far off for this early Sep storm. Look for W then WNW in the Carib with a NW across the Yucatan and into the southern GOM. A weakening ridge should allow for a NW to N path in the GOM producing a landfall somewhere between Victoria Tex and Morgan City La.

[TexWx]

This storm has as much of a chance of going into the central gulf as App. State has of beating Michigan today...




oh, wait.....

[Stratosphere747]

The NHC will always forecast in a conservative manner - simply because they have a LOT to lose if they're wrong.

Yeah, they will be conservative (and should be), but I think we will see at least a slight northward shift at 5pm. There is just no way they can ignore the fact that most models have now shifted northward.

Of course they can, and they have stated as such in the latest disco.

A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE.

Still plenty of time.....

[Nimbus]

The Nogaps was the outlier to the south with Dean.

There is about 5 degrees difference in track between Bam shallow steering for a weak system and Deep layer steering for a well stacked hurricane. Some of these models may have the storms too weak as Derek stated. That being said the Atlantic ridge is depicted a lot further east in the Nogaps run.

The ridging trend is what interests me.

[HollynLA]

The Nogaps was the outlier to the south with Dean.

There is about 5 degrees difference in track between Bam shallow steering for a weak system and Deep layer steering for a well stacked hurricane. Some of these models may have the storms too weak as Derek stated. That being said the Atlantic ridge is depicted a lot further east in the Nogaps run.

The ridging trend is what interests me.

Yep, it's the timing and weakness of the ridge that will depict where Felix goes after 3-4 days. Hopefully we'll have a better handle on it by Monday.

[Stratosphere747]

Meh...

12z Euro looks like it is breaking down the ridge at the end of the run.

Doubt we see to much of a change from initial LF shift, but may see something of a change into the BOC.

edit - Just had to add the one of the biggest upsets in college football history is about to happen....

[Scorpion]

If the Euro is trending for a weaker ridge then I would have to think the next few runs might shift a little further north near the southern Yucatan. The Euro is usually the southern-most outlier so a track towards Cancun might be possible.

[Brent]

Meh...

12z Euro looks like it is breaking down the ridge at the end of the run.

Doubt we see to much of a change from initial LF shift, but may see something of a change into the BOC.

edit - Just had to add the one of the biggest upsets in college football history is about to happen....

Yeah, I think it's going to hit the Yucatan or even Belize still, but what happens after that is what I'm most interested in. A NW turn is definitely possible, now whether it turns enough to head for the U.S. is a bigger question. Going to be interesting to watch for sure.